NFL championship game picks: NFL’s final four showcases the four ways to solve a QB conundrum

The Rams, Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos will use the conference championship games on Sunday, Jan. 25, to showcase the four ways to answer the quarterback conundrum that each NFL team must conquer before winning a Super Bowl in today’s pass-happy league.

No. 1: Can you swing the right trade?

The Rams did. Matthew Stafford is a 37-year-old veteran on his way to an MVP award, the Hall of Fame and possibly his second Super Bowl ring since his blockbuster move from Detroit in 2021.

No. 2: Can you spend big (and wisely) in free agency?

The Seahawks did. Sam Darnold is a 28-year-old former first-round flop who’s crafting a historic career resurrection since free agency sent him to the Vikings and Seattle — his fourth and fifth teams in eight seasons — the last two years.

No. 3: Can you draft well?

The Patriots did. Drake Maye is a second-year pro who’s rewarding his original team by living up to his billing as a top-three, can’t-miss draft pick before his 24^th birthday. Salary cap number: A paltry $8.3 million, 10^th on his team and only 2.6% of the Patriots’ total cap number.

The Broncos believe they have with Jarrett Stidham, a 29-year-old backup who’s in his third season of being groomed by coach Sean Payton in Denver and now represents what happens when the NFL’s brutality interferes with a great story. Bo Nix, the last of six QBs drafted in the top 12 in 2024, is out with a broken ankle suffered while blowing up the Bills in a great performance a week ago. Stidham is in with only four career starts, none this season.

It’s Stidham vs. Maye in the early game, Stafford vs. Darnold in the nightcap. And, oh yeah, the games also feature four of the top 10 scoring defenses from the regular season. Seattle ranked first (17.2 points allowed per game), Denver third (18.3), New England fourth (18.8) and the Rams 10^th (20.4).

Stafford is much more than a numbers guy who led the league in passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46). He’s much more than a generational arm talent who slings it as well today as he did when the Lions took him No. 1 overall 17 seasons and 9,211 passes ago.

“That command, that confidence, that poise, that ability to love these pressure-filled moments, that gives us calm in the midst of chaotic moments,” coach Sean McVay said this week. “That resonates with his teammates, and it creates a belief that’s not exclusive to our offense. That’s our whole team, coaching staff included.”

The Rams had trouble closing games earlier this season. They had fourth-quarter leads in four of their five losses.

Since joining the Rams, Stafford is 24-6 in December, January and February.

Darnold leads the league in “Yeah, buts …”

A career failure, he won 14 games out of nowhere with the Vikings in 2024.

“Yeah, but …”

Then he won another 14 games with the Seahawks this season, becoming the first quarterback ever to win that many games in consecutive years with different teams.

Didn’t he throw four picks in a two-point loss to his nemesis, the Rams, in Week 11? Yes, but he also led a comeback for the ages against the Rams and a red-hot Stafford five weeks later. Down 30-14 in the fourth quarter, he threw two touchdown passes and two 2-point conversions, including the game-winner in a 38-37 overtime victory.

“Yeah, but …”

Didn’t he complete just 12 passes for 124 yards while playing third fiddle to his defense and running game in last week’s 41-6 divisional playoff win over the 49ers?

Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury. He’s not 100% and was limited in practice all week. But because he picked the perfect landing spot in free agency, and because his ego is small, Darnold is OK with the outside “Yeah, buts …” and going to the Super Bowl carrying a third fiddle if he has to.

“I’ve said it all season, if we get the right coverage and it’s there, I’m going to let it rip,” Darnold said this week. “But being smart with the football is the premium here. Where my mind is, at the end of the day, I got to protect the football.”

With a Patriots win, Maye would become the fourth quarterback to win his first three playoff games and join Dan Marino (1984) and Ben Roethlisberger (2005) as the only quarterbacks to reach the Super Bowl before turning 24.

Like any kid, he’s still a little sloppy now and then. In two playoff wins, he’s thrown two interceptions and lost three of six fumbles. That’s a concern heading into Denver to face a defense that has a league-high 71 sacks, including the three from last week’s win over Buffalo.

Fortunately for Maye, the Patriots are playing great defense. Nine sacks, six takeaways and 19 points allowed in two playoff games has allowed Maye and his unlimited potential some wiggle room.

And Maye doesn’t need much room to showcase one of the NFL’s biggest and most accurate arms.

Maye not only led the league in passer rating (113.5) and completion percent (72.0%), he also led it in average yards per attempt (8.9).

Whether Stidham is a winnable Plan B, who knows. But he was highly coveted by Payton, who certainly saw things in Nix that others missed.

The Patriots also love Stidham. They drafted him in the fourth round in 2019 and were among the teams that tried hard to sign him away from Denver via free agency before this season.

“I came back because I felt I got better under Sean the first two years,” Stidham said. “It’s pretty obvious he’s got the train rolling in the right direction. Nobody can dispute that. I wanted to be a part of that.”

Stidham has 197 career passes, none since 2023. He’ll be the first quarterback since 1970 to start a conference title game with fewer than five career starts.

And if that weren’t enough to think about, Stidham was asked this week if he’s thought about being the next Nick Foles or Jeff Hostetler, backups who famously led the Eagles in 2018 and Giants in 1991, respectively, to Super Bowl-winning runs.

No. 2 New England (16-3) at No. 1 Denver (15-3)

Jan. 25, 2 p.m. (CBS)

Line: Patriots by 4½

The matchup: The Patriots are 8-0 on the road. With Nix sidelined with a broken ankle, Denver will need to lean on home-field advantage and the league’s top pass rush.

Key stat: Stidham will be the seventh quarterback of the Super Bowl era to make his first start of the season in the playoffs. The first six went 2-4. The Vikings’ Joe Webb did it in January 2013, when he lost at Green Bay.

No. 5 L.A. Rams (14-5) at No. 1 Seattle (15-3)

Jan. 25, 5:30 p.m. (Fox)

Line: Seahawks by 2½

The matchup: For only the third time since 1970, the No. 1 scoring defense (Seattle) will face the No. 1 scoring offense (Rams, 30.5 points per game) in a conference title game. The No. 1 scoring defenses are 2-0 with the Eagles beating the Cowboys in 1981 and the Seahawks beating the Packers in 2015.

Key stat: Stafford threw for a season-low 130 yards in the Rams’ 21-19 victory over Seattle in Week 11 and a season-high 457 yards in the Rams’ 38-37 loss to Seattle in Week 16. It’s a team game.

Playoffs, straight up/against the spread: 6-4/5-5