Mostly Rain For The Metro Tuesday, With Snow And Ice To Our North And West

Forecast loop from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

We've got another winter storm on our doorstep as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday across the region - but the greatest impacts from this one will be north and west of the Twin Cities. Stepping through the storm:

The heaviest snow is expected to fall across northwestern/north-central Minnesota, where snowfall amounts of over a foot will be possible. In these areas, this is expected to be a major/extreme winter storm due to the expected snowfall, dangerous to impossible travel, and an extended period of blizzard conditions.

Peak Winds Through 7 AM Wednesday. The strongest winds Tuesday into Tuesday Night will be up in northwestern Minnesota - where blizzard conditions and drifting snow are possible - and along the North Shore. In both these areas, wind gusts of 50-65 mph will be possible.

Peak Winds Through 7 PM Wednesday. The strongest winds across southern Minnesota are expected Wednesday, with wind gusts over 50 mph possible. Out in western Minnesota, we will continue to see the potential of blizzard conditions. Across the rest of southern Minnesota, power outages will be possible.

A band of least 0.1" to 0.2" of icing could fall from southwestern Minnesota (areas like Pipestone) northeastward to areas like Sauk Centre, Little Falls, and along the North Shore (including Duluth). This amount of icing will certainly cause slick surfaces and hazardous travel conditions.

Blizzard Warnings have been issued across parts of northern and northwestern Minnesota due to the extended period of high winds with falling snow. Winter Storm Warnings are out for the heavy snow and, in some areas, some icing. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for some snow and icing.

Meanwhile, a few storms down in far southeastern Minnesota could be strong to severe Tuesday into Tuesday Night, with hail the primary threat.

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So while precipitation could start as a mix Tuesday morning in the metro, we should see that change over to rain throughout the day with highs climbing into the low 40s. Some thunderstorms will also be possible into the afternoon and evening hours.

Winds will be on the increase on Tuesday - though the strongest winds hold off until Wednesday.

Temperatures will range from the 20s in northern Minnesota to the 50s in southeastern parts of the state, giving us that temperature gradient for some areas to see snow, others to see ice, and the rest to see showers and thunderstorms.

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We'll see some slightly cooler air move in behind our major system this week, with 40s for highs Tuesday then 30s for Wednesday and Thursday. We could see a pronounced warm-up after that, with the first 60s of the year possible Saturday. A slight cool-down comes in for Easter Sunday and next Monday - but it would be still in the 50s - before above (and potentially much-above average) highs return for the rest of next week. The average high for the Twin Cities to begin this week is 51F, climbing to 54F next Monday.

Six-hour expected precipitation between 7 AM Friday and 7 AM Saturday.

Light Precipitation Possible Friday. A chance of some lighter precipitation looks to move across portions of eastern/northeastern Minnesota Friday into Friday Night.

Six-hour expected precipitation between 7 AM Sunday and 7 AM next Tuesday.

Easter Sunday/Monday Rain Chance. A little better shot of some rain and northern Minnesota snow will be possible for Easter Sunday into early next week. Right now this appears to be on the light side as well.

So we will watch the chance of a few showers around for Easter Sunday in the metro - especially during the morning and midday hours. Highs will climb into the 50s.

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We finally hit 50F Sunday for the first time since Thanksgiving weekend in the metro, as the high climbed to 51F. That marked 126 straight days with highs below 50F, the 32nd longest stretch on record for the Twin Cities.

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Extended Outlook: Serious Spring Fever
By Paul Douglas

2023. The year we almost broke the all-time winter snowfall record in the Twin Cities (98.6" set in '83-84). Let me explain. A blizzardy-burst of wind-whipped snow dumped 8.5" snow on MSP Friday night, but metro precipitation fell as heavy rain earlier in the day. Had the temperature been 3-5F colder, the Twin Cities might have been spanked with all snow, and it could have easily been 14-20". That's how close we came.

Then again, had I been 6 foot 3 inches and ruggedly handsome I might have been a TV soap opera star. Oh well.

We stay on the relatively warm, rainy side of today's storm, and a few cracks of thunder are possible later. A quarter inch of glaze ice may build up on cold surfaces from Duluth to the North Shore, causing problems, with 6-12" snow from Alexandria to Bemidji.

Windblown (50 mph) flakes may coat the metro Wednesday with low 30s and windchill at Target Field for Thursday's Twins Home Opener

Big changes ahead: 60s this weekend, maybe 70s by mid-April? A sudden light-switch spring!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

TUESDAY: Rain, thunder, high winds. Wake up 35. High 42. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind E 20-40 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Coating of snow. Winds gust to 50 mph. Wake up 29. High 35. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind W 20-50 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy & brisk. Hockey weather. Wake up 21. High 34. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 15-35 mph.

FRIDAY: More sunshine, feels like spring. Wake up 18. High 48. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Blue sky, seriously springy. Wake up 39. High 64. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Mild with a passing T-shower. Wake up 47. High 67. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, a bit cooler. Wake up 45. High 57. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 4th

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 55 minutes, and 56 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When do we see 13 Hours of Daylight?: April 6th (13 hours, 2 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6:30 AM? April 14th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8 PM? April 17th (8:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
April 4th

1928: Severe thunderstorms rumble through east central Minnesota. 100,000 dollars damage done at Anoka.

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A multi-faceted system will be rolling into the central United States on Wednesday, bringing blizzard conditions and the threat of severe weather.

A band of at least 6-18" of snow will fall from the Great Basin to the Upper Midwest through Wednesday. Meanwhile, heavy rain of at least 1-2" will be possible from the Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi Valley.

Snow Forecast. From the Great Basin to the Northern Plains, a band of at least 6-18" of snow (with higher amounts) is expected to fall through the middle of the week. This will be a heavier, wetter snow across the region - meaning we will have to watch snow loads on trees and even roofs. With strong winds in place, this snow will blow around and lead to greatly reduced visibility - meaning travel will be an issue.

Accumulating Ice. A band of icing is also expected - mainly in areas that are between where "mostly rain" and "mostly snow" falls. This currently appears to be from southeastern South Dakota northeastward to around both the North and South Shores of Lake Superior. In these areas, 0.1" to 0.2" of ice (with locally higher amounts, especially near the higher terrain of the North Shore of Lake Superior) could fall which would cause slick conditions and difficult travel. With strong winds in these locations, the combination of ice and wind could cause damage and power outages.

Blizzard Potential. Wind gusts will also be strong throughout the storm, with gusts of at least 50 mph possible across portions of Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Where these strong wind gusts correlate with snowfall is where we will see the highest potential of blizzard conditions. In some areas of the Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota (including in the Red River Valley), an extended period of 12-18 hours with blizzard conditions will be possible. These strong winds will also lead to drifting snow. The combination of all of this will likely lead to closed roadways across the region. Power outages will also be a concern with the strong winds.

This system also brings a likelihood of severe weather - including strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Two Moderate Risks of severe weather are in place (threat level 4 of 5) on Tuesday. The timing on the northern one is late afternoon into the evening, with strong tornadoes possible. The southern one could have strong, dangerous nighttime tornadoes.

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Buildings Crumble High in the Alps as Permafrost Thaws

More from Scientific American: "Mountaineers have visited Rifugio Casati, a four-story building 10,725 feet above sea level in the Italian Alps, for nearly a century. In 2016 Renato Alberti, who had overseen the structure for 35 years, noticed a vertical crack in one of the outer walls. Alberti, now age 67, filled the gap with repair foam, but the crack reopened after only a few days. Alberti thought something unusual must be happening. Perhaps the mountain was becoming unstable. ... Over the next few summers, as cracks spread across Rifugio Casati's walls, indoor tiles began to fracture, doors ceased to close properly, and a corner of the terrace sank by more than a foot. Geologic studies confirmed Alberti's hypothesis: Rifugio Casati sat on permafrost-rich soil that warming temperatures were thawing. The soil's shifting morphology was straining the building's foundation, and the southern part of the building appeared to be sinking. Rock falls were becoming more frequent on the mountainside, too, and coming closer and closer to the building. Authorities will have to demolish and rebuild the structure in a more stable position in the next few years, perhaps beginning as soon as 2024. The hut will still reopen this summer."

EV tax credit rules are about to get a lot more complicated

More from CNBC: "The Treasury Department on Friday proposed new rules for determining which EVs will be eligible for tax credits under the new "critical mineral" and battery component requirements included in last year's Inflation Reduction Act. While the Treasury Department hasn't yet said which vehicles are eligible for the credits – that'll happen April 18 – we now know how the department plans to figure out which EVs do and don't make the cut. The new rules proposed by the Treasury Department on Friday explain how to determine which EVs meet the requirements for critical minerals and battery components, each of which provides a tax credit of $3,750. An EV that qualifies under both – and that meets the other requirements – will be eligible for the full $7,500 credit."

The threat of new US solar tariffs is back

More from Canary Media: "Republicans in Congress, joined by a number of Democrats, are trying to reverse President Biden's two-year pause of new tariffs on some solar panels manufactured in Asia. The effort appeals to China trade hawks, but it could stop large solar projects in their tracks and doom the United States' decarbonization goals. The lawmakers are invoking the Congressional Review Act (CRA), which gives Congress 60 legislative days to review and potentially undo major regulations enacted by federal agencies. Passage of a CRA resolution to reverse a regulation requires a simple majority in both chambers and a signature from the president. Members of both chambers have introduced a CRA resolution that would undo Biden's two-year waiver of new tariffs on solar products from manufacturers in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. If the House and Senate both pass the resolution — which is looking increasingly possible, observers say — it will go to Biden's desk, where he would be expected to veto it. Unless both chambers could then muster a two-thirds supermajority to override Biden's veto, the failed resolution would do little more than provide fodder for campaign ads for Republicans and a few Democrats in vulnerable districts."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser