Mostly Dry Weekend - Highs Below Average Saturday

We are watching storms as we head through Friday evening that could be on the strong side as they move across the state. Models show the storms reaching the metro in the 10 PM-12 AM timeframe. The loop above goes from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM Saturday. The greatest threat from storms will be damaging winds, though some large hail and isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.

As of posting time, there was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place across northwestern Minnesota through 10 PM Friday night, and another one in western Minnesota as close as the St. Cloud, Hutchinson, and Mankato areas through 10 PM as well.

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Several wildfires continue to burn across northern Minnesota, the largest of which is the Greenwood Fire. As of an update on the U.S. Forest Service-Superior National Forest Facebook page late Friday morning, that fire was now at 4,734 acres and 0% contained. Meanwhile, as of 2 PM Friday the fire had jumped to the west side of Highway 2 near Stony Lake. You can view more on that and other fires in the Superior National Forest (including the Moose Lake, Bunggee, Fourtown Lake, Sundial South, and Whelp fires) by going to their Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/SuperiorNF/. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Incident Command System has the latest on the North Norris and Square Fires.

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A beautiful day of August weather is expected Saturday with highs topping off in the mid-70s under mainly sunny skies. It will be a bit breezy with wind gusts to 25 mph possible.

Cloudier skies will hang around northern Minnesota on Saturday, with a few showers possible in northwestern and northeastern portions.

And some of those could be on the strong side, with a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place.

Rain from Friday through the weekend could be heavy in some portions of the state, with up to/over an inch possible as you head west and northwest. Hopefully, this will be some much-needed rain for the drought situation across the region!

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The latest drought monitor was released on Thursday, once again expanding the amount of the state under the D1-D4 drought categories. The amounts of the state under Exceptional Drought - the highest category - rose to 8.07% from 7.37% last week. That was still all situated up in northwestern Minnesota. Almost 50% of the state is now under at least Extreme Drought, the most since the Drought Monitor started in 2000 (previous was 42.23% back in late September and early October 2006). The largest jump was in the Severe Drought category rising to 88.29% of the state compared to last week's 77.77%. That is also the most on record, beating 83.59% from January and early February 2013.

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Mostly Dry Weekend - Highs Below Average Saturday
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

You've probably noticed how dry it's been this year, but that drier stretch extends to our weekends as well. We have only received rain four weekends so far this summer (since June 1) with the other seven dry. That compares to only three weekends without measurable rain (0.01" or greater) last summer and two in 2019.

The good news is that daylight hours will stay dry this weekend with lots of sun in the Twin Cities. Highs today climb into the 70s with breezy west winds before returning to the low 80s Sunday. Our next rain chance moves in Sunday Night with a few strong storms possible. More rain chances are possible during the work week, hopefully helping out the drought situation a touch.

Saturday marks two of the deadliest tornadoes in Minnesota history. In 1918, a tornado destroyed downtown Tyler leaving 36 dead. Going farther back in history, in 1883 an estimated F5 tornado hit Rochester, leaving 37 dead and 200 injured. This tornado led to the formation of St. Mary's Hospital and eventually the Mayo Clinic.

D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: A few AM clouds, breezy. Wake up 67. High 76. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Overnight storms. Wake up 59. High 80. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly dry and sunny. Wake up 67. High 86. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix with afternoon storms. Wake up 66. High 86. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Some clouds. PM scattered storms. Wake up 61. High 78. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: On and off showers and storms. Wake up 63. High 76. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 21st

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 46 minutes, and 30 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 52 seconds

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This Day in Weather History
August 21st

1918: Minnesota's third deadliest tornado strikes Tyler and destroys the downtown area, leaving 36 dead.

1886: High winds hit Northfield with winds blowing at 60 mph for 20 minutes. Peak gusts up to 75-80 mph are recorded.

1883: The 4th deadliest tornado in Minnesota history hits Rochester. The tornado kills 31 residents and injures 100 more. Appalled by the lack of medical care received by the tornado's victims, Mother Alfred Moes, founder of the Sisters of St. Francis, proposes to build and staff a hospital if Dr. W.W. Mayo will provide medical care. St. Marys Hospital opens in 1889 with 27 beds and eventually grows into the Mayo Clinic.

With several systems across the United States Saturday, we'll be watching scattered storm chances just about from coast to coast. Isolated severe storms are possible. We will also be watching Henri off the East Coast which looks to make landfall in the Northeast on Sunday. That system will bring increased swells and rip currents to the Southeast Atlantic and Mid-Atlantic coast.

Some of the heaviest rain through Sunday will be in the Northern Plains, where over three inches of rain could fall across portions of North Dakota. We will also be watching heavy rain Sunday into early next week across portions of New England in connection to Henri.

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All eyes are on Henri, which is expected to become a hurricane Saturday as it accelerates northward. It will be at or near hurricane strength on Sunday when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Now is the time to finish up preparations ahead of Henri in the Northeast.

Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and Storm Surge Warnings and Watches are in place from New Jersey to Cape Cod ahead of this storm. There could be a storm surge of 3-5" on the east side of the storm, which would be across coastal areas of Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

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Study finds 'very concerning' 74% increase in deaths associated with extreme heat brought on by the climate crisis

More from CNN: "A pair of new studies out Thursday find a "very concerning" rise in the number of climate-related deaths and paint a picture of world where people struggle with regular temperature extremes. One of the studies finds the number of deaths caused by high temperatures increased by 74% globally between 1980 and 2016. Deaths related to extreme cold increased 31% since 1990, a new report, the first of its kind, finds. Human-caused climate change — generated by carbon, methane and other greenhouse gas emissions from industry, transportation, and agriculture — has led to a "new normal" with more days of extreme temperatures than in recorded history. The studies published Thursday provide more evidence that both hot and cold extremes can be deadly."

As California's fire season ramps up, "unprecedented" is getting a lot of use

More from the Grist: "The CalFire and Forest Service incident report for the fast-moving Caldor Fire points to dry fuels and wind. In California, climate change hasn't changed the total precipitation over the long-term, but it has increased temperatures, drying out the trees, shrubs, and forest floors, said Leroy Westerling, a University of California, Merced professor who studies the way climate change affects wildfires. "You've had warmer temperatures for a long time now, and the variability of precipitation has increased, but the total amount of precipitation hasn't increased to keep pace with increased evaporation, so you are basically getting drier and drier fuels," Westerling told Grist. That means that big fires like this, that generate their own weather and behave in new unpredictable ways, "are going to become more and more common," he said. California currently has five active fires over 50,000 acres. With some 10,000 personnel working around the state, "we're kind of getting to that point where we are seeing a draw on firefighters," said Tolmachaff of CalFire. "It's not as bad as last year when we had the lightning siege, but it's getting there.""

More from The Guardian: "Rain has fallen on the summit of Greenland's huge ice cap for the first time on record. Temperatures are normally well below freezing on the 3,216-metre (10,551ft) peak, and the precipitation is a stark sign of the climate crisis. Scientists at the US National Science Foundation's summit station saw rain falling throughout 14 August but had no gauges to measure the fall because the precipitation was so unexpected. Across Greenland, an estimated 7bn tonnes of water was released from the clouds. The rain fell during an exceptionally hot three days in Greenland when temperatures were 18C higher than average in places. As a result, melting was seen in most of Greenland, across an area about four times the size of the UK."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser