Mostly Dry Wednesday - Storm Chances Late And Into Wednesday Night

Loop from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

With a frontal boundary to our south, we will watch the chance for a few scattered showers and storms across southern Minnesota during the day, but odds into at least the evening will be better to our south. A few showers and storms could be more likely into the late night/early Thursday morning hours in southern parts of the state.

If we do get a few storms across southwestern Minnesota, they could be on the strong side with a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) in place. Hail and wind would be the greatest threats.

So while there are some storm icons across central and southern Minnesota Wednesday, they are somewhat slight chances, with greater chances as you head south into Iowa. Highs on Wednesday will range from the 60s along the North Shore to the low 80s in southern Minnesota. Some of these highs up in north-central/northeast Minnesota will be 5-15F degrees below average.

As we look at Wednesday in the Twin Cities, we watch that isolated storm chance but again chances odds appear to be somewhat on the lower end of the scale. Morning temperatures will be in the upper 60s with highs climbing to around 80F.

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Wednesday will be the coolest day of the next several due to a front passing through, with highs "only" making it to 80F... which is actually a few degrees below average. That slightly cooler air doesn't last, though, as we climb back into the mid and upper 80s for the second part of the week into the weekend. There's even a chance we could make a run at 90F during the weekend.

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Most of the rain through the end of the week will fall across the southern tier of counties, where some areas like Rochester and Worthington could see at least an inch fall. The farther north you go, the fewer chances of rain there are, with maybe a quarter inch for the metro tapering off to almost nothing around the Brainerd Lakes area.

While some of the rain will fall in areas that need it, there are still many other areas in central and northern Minnesota that are several inches of rain below average over the last 30 days.

The good news is that water levels along the Rainy River Basin continue to fall thanks to the reduced rainfall up north over the past month or so. Rainy Lake continues to be several feet above normal levels, and there are still high water levels on the Rainy River past International Falls.

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My oldest son got married in Santa Fe last week in front of the Cathedral Basilica Church. Picture this: churchbells clanging, thunder roaring, my wife glaring as I peaked at Doppler radar on my phone, praying (out loud) the rain would hold off. It sprinkled, but the outdoor ceremony went off as planned. We were lucky.

Some rain would be nice right about now. Much of Minnesota is too dry again, and models suggest a continuation of our hotter, drier than average pattern. June was 3.3F warmer than average in the Twin Cities, and an ensemble of long-range models suggest stinking hot weather will be with us into much of August. The local National Weather Service says MSP has experienced twice as many 90-degree days than average so far.

A free lawn-watering is possible later today with a few spotty pop-up T-storms. Showers may be more numerous Thursday before drying Friday. Expect another lake-worthy weekend with sun & 80s both days. After a lousy, character-building spring we're having a real summer. Imagine that!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Sticky, more numerous T-storms. Wake up 70. High 84. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind N 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny and less humid. Wake up 66. High 85. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind E 7-12 mph.

SATURDAY: Go jump in a lake. Warm sunshine. Wake up 66. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Warm sunshine, late T-storms. Wake up 68. High 89. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Hot sunshine. Dog Days return. Wake up 71. High 92. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 6th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 28 minutes, and 14 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 3 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 8th (8:29 PM)

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1936: A high of 104 degrees is recorded at Minneapolis.

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We will watch a large area of the eastern two-thirds of the country with shower and storm potential as we head through Wednesday with some showers and storms also possible in the Pacific Northwest.

The heaviest rain through the middle of the week will fall from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley where rounds of storms are expected around a heat bubble impacting the central and southern Plains. In these areas, some could see over 3" of rain fall.

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More from the Star Tribune: "Minnesota is already ahead in its transition to cleaner power, and green energy advocates say those efforts will be largely unaffected by a recent Supreme Court ruling seen as a blow to the Biden administration's effort to slow climate change. Xcel Energy is retiring all of its coal-fired generation by 2030, with that capacity scheduled to be replaced with wind and solar energy. Minnesota Power will retire its two coal furnaces by 2035. "This is a very large national setback, and it's very unfortunate, but Minnesota has been in the leadership, taking every effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants," said J. Drake Hamilton, senior director of science policy with advocacy group Fresh Energy."

From suburbs to small towns, more Minnesota cities taking climate action

More from Energy News Network: "Nearly a decade after Minneapolis passed the state's first climate action plan, more than a dozen Minnesota cities have followed suit in creating local blueprints for reducing carbon emissions and preparing urban environments for more extreme weather events. From tiny Grand Marias on the North Shore to Twin Cities suburbs, cities are using climate action plans to frame conversations around policies and investments. They are spurring new initiatives such as building energy benchmarking programs, and they are driving investments in rooftop solar, energy efficiency, and electric transportation infrastructure. "An increasing number of cities are joining the fight against climate change because they're seeing local impacts," said Abby Finis, formerly the senior program manager for communities at the Great Plains Institute. "You're seeing that residents are increasingly concerned with inaction, and that's why the leaders are pushing for more climate action.""

Unchecked emissions could double heat-related child mortality

More from the University of Leeds: "A team of international scientists, led by the University of Leeds in collaboration with researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), have shown that thousands of heat-related child deaths could be prevented if temperature increases are limited to the Paris Agreement's 1.5ºC target through to 2050. However, heat-related child deaths could double in sub-Saharan Africa by mid-century if high emissions continue. Their work, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, estimated the impact of climate change on annual heat-related deaths of children under five in sub-Saharan Africa, from 1995 to 2050."

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser