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Mostly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible

After a few storms today, more sunshine is expected for fairgoers tomorrow. Friday looks like another blue ribbon day, but rain & rumble risks return this weekend. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

August 24, 2022 at 2:30AM

Minnesota State Fair Weather

"It's time once again for the "Great Minnesota Get Together." Weather plays quite a role in the State Fair experience. Who doesn't remember braving the heat with the crowds on one of the busier intersections on a sweltering afternoon? A quick rain burst will send people scurrying for cover, and folks savor balmy days in the 70s with just a bit of a breeze. Below are some State Fair weather facts and notable weather events that have happened in past Minnesota State Fairs."

Conservation Building at State Fair (Minnesota Historical Society/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

August Weather Summary For The Twin Cities

The first half of the month was hot and dry, but things have been a little cooler and wetter as of late. Through the first 22 days of August, temperatures have been running pretty close to average with near average precipitation.

Twin Cities August Weather Summary (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Summer Precipitation

Taking a look at precipitation so far this summer (since June 1st), it's a mixed story. A few locations are running above average, but other locations are running well below average, including the Twin Cities, which is still nearly -6.50" below average.

Summer Precipitation (Since June 1st) (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Summer Precipitation Departure From Average (Since June 1st) (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

9th Driest Summer at MSP

Here are the 15 driest summer's on record at MSP. Note that this summer (since June 1st) has been the 9th driest, last year was the 11th driest. If MSP doesn't see any additional rainfall through the rest of August, this would be the 6th driest summer on record.

Top 15 Driest Summers on Record at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Spotty Storms Wednesday & This Weekend

Here's the weather outlook from AM Wednesday to AM Monday. Weather conditions will turn a little more unsettled midweek with spotty showers and storms possible Wednesday. Much of the day Thursday and Friday will be quiet, but another round storms will arrive as we approach the weekend.

Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

The extended precipitation outlook through the week and weekend ahead shows pockets of locally heavy rainfall across parts of the state. Some locations could pick up more than 1", including near the Twin Cities. Stay tuned...

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota Drought Update

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Prior to last week's rain, severe drought was sitting at a little more than 2%, while Moderate drought was at nearly 12.5%. The good news is that we picked up some much needed rainfall and I would assume some improvement in the drought update on Thursday.

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Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Wednesday

The weather outlook for Wednesday shows temps running close to average with readings in the 70s and 80s. Spotty showers and storms will be possible, but the won't be too widespread.

Weather Outlook Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Wednesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps warming into the lower 80s with a few isolated t-storms possible.

Wednesday Weather Outlook For The Twin Cities (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temperatures starting in the mid 60s and warming into the lower 80s by the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will be possible, but they shouldn't be too widespread.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running close to average with readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s over the next 5 days.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows temps warming into the lower 80s through midweek. Spotty t-storms will be possible Wednesday, but we'll clear out just in time for the first day of the Fair Thursday. Weather conditions turn a little unsettled over the weekend with an increased risk of rain and rumbles lingering into Monday.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook, readings will warm into the 80s through midweek before a slight cooldown during the 2nd half of the week. Temps will bounce around the 70s and 80s through the end of the month with no major heatwaves expected anytime soon.

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NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps returning to much of the nation, especially in the Western US. Meanwhile, lingering cooler than average temps will be found in the Southern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows drier weather in place across the northern tier of the nation, while more active weather will still be in place across the Gulf Coast States.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Unusually Quiet in the Atlantic
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, we are only 2.5 weeks away from the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is officially September 10th. This has been an unusually quiet season thus far, producing just 3 named storms; Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Interestingly, there have been no named storms in the Atlantic since July 3rd, which is the first time of such occurrence since 1982. Last year at this time, there had already been 8 named storms, including Hurricane Elsa, Grace and Henri.

With that being said, NOAA is still expecting an above average season with a total of 14 to 20 named storms, 6 to 10 of which could become hurricanes. Stay tuned.

Ready or not, today is the eve of the Great Minnesota Get-Together, which welcomes nearly 2 million guests over 12 days. The good news is that after a few storms today, more sunshine is expected for fairgoers tomorrow. Friday looks like another blue ribbon day, but rain & rumble risks return this weekend.

By the way, I'm investing in Tums stock through Labor Day. Burp!

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Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Spotty t-storms possible. Winds: ENE 5. High: 83.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers & storms. Winds: NE 5. Low: 64.

THURSDAY: Early AM shower. More PM sunshine. Winds: N 5. High: 78.

FRIDAY: Dry start. t-showers possible at night. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 59. High: 79.

SATURDAY: Increasing rain and rumble risk. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 80.

SUNDAY: Soggier start. Gradual pm clearing. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 82.

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MONDAY: Warm with late day storms. Winds: NNW 10-15. Wake-up: 66. High: 85.

TUESDAY: Bright and better. Not as sticky. Winds: NNE 7-12. Wake-up: 67. High: 79.

This Day in Weather History

August 24th

2006: Tornadoes and large hail strike southern Minnesota. One person died and 37 were injured when a strong tornado began 4 miles west-southwest of Nicollet in Nicollet County, and moved almost due east for 33 miles to near Waterville in Le Sueur County. Many storm chasers captured the tornado on video. The largest hail reported was grapefruit-sized at New Prague in Scott County.

1934: Early cool air invades southern Minnesota. Rochester and Fairmont have lows of 34 degrees.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

August 24th

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Average High: 80F (Record: 98F set in 1948)

Average Low: 62F (Record: 43F set in 1887)

Record Rainfall: 4.08" set in 1893

Record Snowfall: None

Twin Cities Almanac For August 24th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

August 24th

Sunrise: 6:25am

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Sunset: 8:04pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 38 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 55 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 hour & 53 minutes

Moon Phase for August 24th at Midnight

2.1 Days Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase For August 24th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows temps running at or below average across the Southern US with lingering showers and storms. Highs will run above average in the Midwest to the Northwest.

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National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through midweek will turn a little unsettled across the Midwest by midweek. There will also be ongoing showers and storms from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast States with pockets of locally heavy rain.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across the southern tier of the nation with the heaviest in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Late week and into the weekend, there will be a decent amount of rain across parts of the Midwest. Meanwhile, the Western US should be dry.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"China's unrivaled 70-day heat wave"

"The extreme heat and drought that has been roasting a vast swath of southern China for at least 70 straight days has no parallel in modern record-keeping in China, or elsewhere around the world for that matter. Why it matters: Based on recent studies, the question facing climate scientists is how much climate change contributed to this disaster. The big picture: More than 260 weather stations saw their highest-ever temperatures during the long-running heat wave, according to state media reports. It has coincided with a severe drought that has shriveled rivers and lakes and throttled back some of China's hydropower production. This has led the government to cut power to Sichuan's key industrial hubs, an emergency measure extended on Aug. 21."

"Five Food Crops to Give Us a Diet for a Hotter Climate"

"As the earth warms up, we have to think about our global food supply and the crops that feed nearly eight billion people. The world's crops are now dominated by wheat, corn, and rice. Large parts of the US grow nothing but one variety of corn year after year, depleting the land and causing erosion. Single species food is particularly vulnerable to climate change. If we can't quickly heal the land and stabilize global temperatures, what will we eat in the future? Yeah, you've heard about insects, but plant crops will be necessary to sustain human society. Scientists are looking to the past, to crops that already flourish under harsh conditions, but never made it to the global table. Yet. Four of them are traditional crops that are candidates for diversifying our agriculture, plus there's a crop called Kernza that has been developed for the specific purpose of dealing with climate change. Kernza is a perennial wheat grass that doesn't require a farmer to buy seed, till the soil, or replant every year."

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"Heat Waves Are Feeling Hotter, And We're Measuring Them Wrong, Too"

"While we all know things on Earth are generally getting hotter, heat isn't the only factor influencing how hot we actually feel. Due to changing environmental conditions and quirks of our physiology, heatwaves are feeling up to 10°C (18°F) hotter than traditional measures imply, new research discovered. The US National Weather Service (NWS) uses apparent temperature – also called the heat index – to measure what these environmental conditions feel like to us physiologically. But the new weather extremes we're facing today have pushed the system's fringes to breaking point. In turn, the physiological responses of sweating and cooling would influence our brain's estimates of the relative temperature. Physicist Robert Steadman calculated the heat index scale in 1979 by measuring how different temperatures impact the blood flow in our skin under different levels of humidity. So at an average humidity of around 70 percent, a typical human body in the shade would experience 20°C as 20°C."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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