Mostly Cloudy Sunday With Nighttime Snow Chances

While the metro remained snow-free from the latest system that impacted the region, central Minnesota did get the changeover to snow as we went through Friday into Friday Night. Snow totals across central Minnesota through Saturday morning generally ranged between 0.5-2", with some of the heavier totals reported from Wadena east to the Brainerd Lakes as well as just south of St. Cloud.

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Forecast loop from Noon Sunday to 6 AM Monday.

Another system will float its way through the region as we head through the second half of Sunday into Sunday Night, bringing a batch of snow along with it followed by some flurries through the late overnight hours. The best timing on snow for the metro looks to be as we head through the early evening hours, but snow will be possible starting midday in northwestern Minnesota.

As you can see, snow totals toward the metro are expected to be light with maybe a tenth or two of an inch... but at this rate this winter, that's something to get somewhat excited about. The heaviest totals will be up in parts of northwestern Minnesota, where totals up to around 1.5" are possible. I would not be surprised to see some heavier snow totals around that amount along the higher terrain of the North Shore as well.

So while we'll keep an eye on that snow chance toward the evening and overnight hours here in the metro on Sunday, skies will be mainly cloudy throughout much of the day. I can't rule out a few-hour period in the afternoon where there is more sun than clouds. Temperatures hover in the 30s throughout the day.

We'll keep an eye on that system moving into the region throughout the day, bringing snow chances to mainly northern/central Minnesota in the afternoon hours before snow chances spread a little farther south into the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, mainly cloudy conditions are expected to end the weekend. Highs range from the upper 20s in far northern Minnesota to the low 40s in southwestern areas of the state.

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Monday: While a few morning clouds will be possible as we clear out those Sunday Night flurries, skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day. Behind that system, temperatures will be much closer to average - in the mid to upper 20s. The wind will continue to have a bite to it, gusting to 30 mph out of the northwest. Due to those winds, it'll likely feel like the teens, even in the afternoon hours.

Tuesday: Warmer weather returns with fairly quiet weather. Highs climb into the mid/upper 30s. Southerly winds up to 15 mph help to pump some of that warmth back into the region.

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Besides our temperature dip for Monday, highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s through at least Christmas here in the metro. I generally see this warmth continue through at least the end of the year in the models. While a mostly quiet weather pattern continues this upcoming week, I can't rule out the potential for some scattered rain showers late in the week.

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Snow Drought Extends Into Christmas Eve
By Paul Douglas

The Oklahoma Panhandle has seen more snow so far this winter than the Twin Cities. With only 4.5" of snow at MSP, this is the 35th least snowy start to winter on record. In fact 16.5 percent of the US is snow-covered, which is the least for this date in nearly 20 years. Not a good winter to be a snow blower repairman.

By December 16, 2022 the metro area had already picked up 20.4", on our way to 90.3" for the season. This winter we will almost certainly see less frozen water.

Long range weather models hint at a snowier weather regime setting up in January with a few nights dipping below zero, but a persistent El Nino should mean less snow, and fewer arctic intrusions.

ECMWF hints at a little accumulating snow on Christmas Day. So you're telling me there's a chance?

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Some sun, flurries later. Wake up 33. High 39. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny and chilly. Feels like 8-15F. Wake up 19. High 28. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with less wind. Wake up 26. High 42. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Clouds increase. Wake up 26. High 43. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Cloudy, a little drizzle. Wake up 30. High 43. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Good travel. Wake up 32. High 44. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

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*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 46 minutes, and 57 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 0 minutes and 23 seconds

*Day With The Least Amount Of Sunlight: December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, 10 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise? December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/After 5 PM? January 18th (5:01 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
December 17th

1996: 20 to 40 mph winds combined with recent snowfall produce blizzard like conditions for about a 36 hour period over much of the area. Whiteout conditions are common in rural and open areas. Every county road in Yellow Medicine county was impassable by the morning of the 18th. Travelers heading west were stranded in Clara City as plows were pulled off the road. Wind chills were as low as 60 degrees below zero.

1946: Heavy snow is reported along with strong wind across northern Minnesota. Duluth has winds up to 62 mph.

On Sunday, the main story will continue to be the system moving up the East Coast, bringing widespread heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding. Some severe weather will be possible from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a system working through the upper Midwest will bring some quick-hitting snowfall. As we head throughout the day, rain and some Sierra snow will start to impact the West Coast.

The East Coast will continue to see heavy rainfall through the end of the weekend into the beginning of the new week, with widespread totals of 3-6" possible. Some of the heaviest totals will occur across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic states.

Snow chances across the Upper Midwest to the Appalachians through Monday will generally be on the lighter side, with expected accumulation of a few inches in some areas.

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Clean energy factories, thermal storage get boost from new tax credits

Pacific Northwest snowpack endangered by increasing heatwaves

More from Washington State University: "Even in the precipitation-heavy Pacific Northwest, more frequent heatwaves are threatening a key source of water supply. A Washington State University study that intended to look at snow melting under a single, extreme event, the 2021 "heat dome," instead revealed an alarming, longer-term rising trend of successive heatwaves melting snowpack earlier in the year. The findings have implications for many areas worldwide that are dependent on snow-capped mountains to provide summer water since heatwaves have been on the rise globally."

New Research Shows That U.S. Renters Are Hit The Hardest When A Hurricane Strikes

More from the Society for Risk Analysis: "With a severe shortage of affordable housing in the United States, renters living along the East and Gulf coasts are uniquely vulnerable to hurricane disasters. Two new studies based on data from 2009 to 2018 show that renters living along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States face rent increases, higher eviction rates, and a lack of affordable housing in the aftermath of a hurricane. The research will be presented in December at the annual meeting of the 2023 Society for Risk Analysis Annual Conference in Washington, D.C. Both analytical studies are based on 10 years of data (2009 to 2018) on housing, hurricane disasters, and socioeconomic factors at the county level in 19 coastal states — from Maine to Texas. The time period includes devastating hurricanes such as Irma (2011), Sandy (2012), and Matthew (2016)."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser