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Monae or Musgraves? Our critic predicts the winners for Sunday's Grammys

Jon Bream forecasts four different winners in the Big Four categories.

By Jon Bream

February 8, 2019 at 5:55PM

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Janelle Monae/ Star Tribune photo by Richard Tsong-Taatarii (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

This year's Grammy Awards mark a significant change. Nominations in the Big Four categories have been expanded from five to eight.

Will that make it easier for women to win? Remember the blowback after last year's ceremonies when only one woman received a trophy on camera.

Will that make it easier for hip-hop to triumph? There's been blowback from the hip-hop community for years.

Who knows how this expanded number of nominees will affect things?

All I know is that it's harder to predict the winners of Sunday's Big Four awards than it was to win prop bets for the Super Bowl. But we're going to try anyway. Grammy predictions, that is.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Nominees: Cardi B, "Invasion of Privacy"; Brandi Carlile, "By the Way, I Forgive You"; Drake, "Scorpion"; H.E.R., "H.E.R."; Post Malone, "Beerbongs & Bentleys"; Janelle Monae, "Dirty Computer"; Kacey Musgraves, "Golden Hour"; Various Artists, "Black Panther: The Album, Music From and Inspired By."

My vote would be for funk futurist Monae, whose album was adventurous, outspoken and excitingly diverse, but I don't think she's going to win.

The four hip-hop albums will cancel each other out. And H.E.R. is too little known.

That's leaves Carlile and Musgraves. I've been a longtime admirer of Carlile, and "I Forgive You" is her strongest effort; her five nominations show that the industry is finally giving her the attention she deserves.

"Golden Hour" was a huge hit with just about every critic but me. Look at the overwhelming acclaim -- No. 1 at Entertainment Weekly, No. 2 in Rolling Stone and Pitchfork, No. 1 in the Village Voice's annual nationwide poll of 400 music critics and the runaway winner in a poll of country-music critics. Couple that with an album of the year trophy at the CMA Awards, and this will be Musgraves' moment.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Nominees: Cardi B, Bad Bunny & J Balvin, "I Like It"; Brandi Carlile, "The Joke"; Childish Gambino, "This Is America"; Drake, "God's Plan"; Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper, "Shallow"; Kendrick Lamar & SZA, "All the Stars"; Post Malone feat. 21 Savage, "Rockstar"; Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey, "The Middle."

Another pick 'em. I think Renaissance man Gambino's topical and powerful "This Is America" -- about being black in the United States -- is the stand out. And I like it to grab the Grammy -- which would make it the first hip-hop record to capture this category.

SONG OF THE YEAR

Nominees: Kendrick Lamar & SZA, "All the Stars"; Ella Mai, "Boo'd Up"; Drake, "God's Plan"; Shawn Mendes, "In My Blood"; Brandi Carlile, "The Joke"; Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey, "The Middle"; Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper, "Shallow"; Childish Gambino, "This Is America"

Again, Gambino's piece is artful and timely. But, life will imitate art. Sentiment, glamour and tradition triumph with the old-school power ballad by Gaga and Cooper from "A Star Is Born."

BEST NEW ARTIST

Nominees: Chloe x Halle; Luke Combs; Greta Van Fleet; H.E.R.; Dua Lipa; Margo Price; Bebe Rexha; Jorja Smith.

If the vote had been taken after last Sunday's Super Bowl, Chloe x Halle might have emerged victorious following their creative treatment of "America the Beautiful." But this prize usually goes to the artist who has had the most commercial success. Granted, there have been exceptions such as much-admired jazz star Esperanza Spalding and indie rock hero Bon Iver.

Feisty country traditionalist Price is easily the most impressive new artist here, but she's too low-profile to snare the trophy.

With four No. 1 country singles, Combs has had the most commercial success, but he's not known beyond the genre.

Lipa, the betting favorite, has been bigger in her native England than in the States, where her "New Rules" ruled.

My Ouija board points to Rexha, whose collaboration with Florida Georgia Line on the unavoidable "Meant to Be," has been a crossover smash in both country and pop, on high rotation on too many radio stations.

about the writer

Jon Bream

Critic / Reporter

Jon Bream has been a music critic at the Star Tribune since 1975, making him the longest tenured pop critic at a U.S. daily newspaper. He has attended more than 8,000 concerts and written four books (on Prince, Led Zeppelin, Neil Diamond and Bob Dylan). Thus far, he has ignored readers’ suggestions that he take a music-appreciation class.