RandBall: Trying to find the upside in the timing of J.J. McCarthy’s absence

The downside in developmental time lost for J.J. McCarthy is clear. But he’s also been overmatched and was playing behind a battered offensive line. Michael Rand looks at his injury from all angles in today’s 10 things to know.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
September 16, 2025 at 5:01PM
Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell said QB J.J. McCarthy's ankle injury is “crushing" because it will slow his development. (Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The single idea and phrase that has been attached the most to Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell as he has earned the unofficial title of Quarterback Whisperer is this:

“Organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations.”

It drives home multiple points at once: That a young quarterback needs the right support around him on many fronts to succeed; that organizations must be cautious in their timelines; that too often we label quarterbacks as “busts” when really it was the system or team around him that was the problem.

O’Connell proved his point in 2024 when the Vikings helped Sam Darnold rehabilitate his career: from first-round flameout to journeyman to Pro Bowl QB and coveted free agent.

The ability of O’Connell and his staff to nurture young quarterback J.J. McCarthy on his journey surely played a role in the organization’s decision to draft him in 2024 and then hand him the keys in 2025.

Eight quarters and one ankle injury into McCarthy’s tenure as a starting NFL quarterback, it is instructive to revisit O’Connell’s favorite phrase as we try to parse the obvious downside but also the potential upside of McCarthy missing some time.

Let’s drill down even more at the start of today’s 10 things to know:

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  • The downside starts with reps. McCarthy missed last year with a meniscus injury. Simulated snaps and training camp snaps wearing a red jersey (when a QB cannot be touched) cannot fully prepare a quarterback for the speed with which decisions need to be made in a game. Generally speaking, McCarthy will learn best from games. And he will miss at least one of those. “The injury [is] crushing because you just want it to be a daily process of activating every aspect of the development and learning,” O’Connell said Monday.
    • While O’Connell made it clear Monday that McCarthy’s absence is 100% injury-related and not performance-related, McCarthy is clearly struggling with the speed of the game right now. He has the second-worst Pro Football Focus quarterback grade and Total QBR number through two starts. PFF says he has had the fourth-most time to throw of all QBs but has taken sacks on 40.9% of the times he has been pressured, the second-highest rate in the league. Perhaps taking some time without game action to process what he has seen so far would be more beneficial in this moment than plowing ahead.
      • From a competitive standpoint, though, there is still downside. Oddsmakers moved the Vikings from 4.5-point favorites to 3-point favorites after news broke of McCarthy’s injury. He is the starter for a reason, and backup Carson Wentz has only been here a few weeks. There will be a learning curve for him to get up to speed, and there is a reason he is a backup even if the team has confidence in him.
        • But even if this is a critical stretch for the Vikings, with three winnable games before a bye week and a more daunting part of their schedule, McCarthy’s long-term development is more important than anything else. The Vikings ended the Falcons game with a backup center, a rookie left guard and a third-string left tackle. If that’s the alignment again Sunday, would the Vikings have risked doing further damage to McCarthy’s development — failing him by not giving him the support he needs — by playing him behind suspect protection before he’s up to speed on processing the game?
          • Overall, it’s obviously bad that McCarthy is injured — particularly since durability questions could come into play given his NFL career to date. But sitting out right now with a short-term injury after a whirlwind seven days that included his first two NFL games (both in prime time) and the birth of his first child, might end up being the best thing that could have happened to him.
            • One point O’Connell has made multiple times: The Vikings’ struggles in their first two games extend far beyond McCarthy. Andrew Krammer and I broke down a lot of those issues during the film review portion of Tuesday’s podcast.
              • Wild General Manager Bill Guerin was asked Monday about contract negotiations with Kirill Kaprizov. “We haven’t talked in the last couple days, but we will soon,” Guerin said. “I just can’t say [enough] how much we just want to get something done. We feel like we’ve really expressed how much we want Kirill.” That’s not the update Wild fans were hoping for with training camp set to start Thursday.
                • A silver lining at the end of this lost Twins season is the continued development of Austin Martin. He smacked a key three-run double in a 7-0 win over the Yankees on Monday, and his on-base percentage is nearly .400.
                  • Former Minnesota high school standout Paige Bueckers was a nearly unanimous WNBA Rookie of the Year in voting announced Tuesday.
                    • The Star Tribune’s Randy Johnson is expected to be my guest on Wednesday’s podcast to talk Gophers football. They lost at Cal on Saturday and open Big Ten play Sept. 27 against Rutgers.
                      about the writer

                      about the writer

                      Michael Rand

                      Columnist / Reporter

                      Michael Rand is the Minnesota Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Minnesota Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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