On Aug. 17, 2024, the Twins won their third consecutive game in Texas and improved to 70-53 on the season. They were in a battle in the surprisingly competitive American League Central but a near-cinch at that rate to at least be a wild-card team in the postseason.
What followed, of course, was a 12-27 stumble to the finish line that left the Twins soul-searching instead of tuning up for the playoffs in October. They came into 2025 determined to learn from what had happened, but they are just 50-55 this year after a listless pair of losses to the Nationals over the weekend.
Counting a burst to the finish in 2023 that resulted in an AL Central title, the Twins went 97-70 from roughly mid-August 2023 to mid-August 2024. They have gone 62-82 since then. What looked to be a team hitting its stride with a young core has instead regressed into a floundering mess and could lead to a hard reset at the trade deadline.
What has happened in the last year to change the team’s trajectory? Patrick Reusse and I talked about that on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast, and I want to get more specific at the top of today’s 10 things to know.
- They have not had the starting pitching depth to overcome injuries: Last year it was Joe Ryan and (to a lesser extent) Chris Paddack. This year it was Pablo López and a combination of injury and ineffectiveness from Bailey Ober. In both cases, promising seasons took a sharp turn that correlated strongly with pitching injuries. But it doesn’t tell the whole story.
- The Twins cut payroll before 2024 and it cost them: Coming off the division title and a playoff series win in 2023, the Twins infamously “right-sized” their payroll. Sonny Gray walked in free agency with no real replacement (he has 23 wins since then with the Cardinals). And they have received dismal production this year from many of their most expensive players. Carlos Correa has a WAR of 0.1. Christian Vázquez has a WAR of 0.0 and is an automatic out. López is injured. Those three players count for about $69 million payroll, almost half of what the Twins are carrying this year.
- Their high draft pick young hitters have stalled or regressed: Since 2016, the Twins have used first- or second-round picks on several hitters who are now big-league regulars. Among them: Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee. Kirilloff had to retire because of injuries, a bad break. Rooker became a standout slugger, but only after the Twins traded him. Lewis, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner and Lee have a combined WAR of 0.9 this season. Far more was expected of them individually and collectively.
- The net effect is a general malaise as the trade deadline approaches. The Twins looked lifeless and disinterested in 9-3 and 7-2 losses to the last-place Nationals on Saturday and Sunday. They let Travis Adams languish as he gave up five runs in Sunday’s bullpen game, then oddly used three of their best relievers when the game was out of hand. Not much about them inspires confidence or sense right now.
- Given all that, what will they do at the trade deadline? Bobby Nightengale explores that based on President Derek Falvey’s comments over the weekend.
- ESPN says Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax are three of the 10 best potentially available players in a trade. But will the Twins deal any of them?
- Don’t forget about Vikings receiver Jalen Nailor, who could be primed for big things as a looming free agent.
- The Lynx allowed 90 points and lost a regular-season home game for the first time all season. Poor defense never makes Cheryl Reeve happy.
- Gophers football camp is about to get underway, and all eyes will be on young quarterback Drake Lindsey. Like the Vikings with J.J. McCarthy, Lindsey has a lot of talent but plenty to prove.
- It’s July, so it’s definitely time for “NBA Player X is in great shape” stories. This week’s entry: Luka Doncic!
