The Twins began Tuesday with “TBD” listed as their starting pitcher for the final two games of their series with the Red Sox, a team they are still theoretically pursuing on the fringes of the wild card race.
Their starting pitching situation is tenuous for a number of reasons. But a trade the Twins made Monday with the Tigers is a big reason and a reminder of how things might have worked out differently had two previous moves had proved to be more savvy.
The Monday trade sent veterans Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak to Detroit. In a more idealized version of 2025, both of them might be meaningful contributors to the rotation on a contending team instead of salaries to offload for a very young lottery ticket-style prospect in the midst of a disappointing year.
Both Paddack and Dobnak arrived with and found long-term futures with the Twins via unusual deals that ultimately backfired, which I talked about on Tuesday’s Daily Delivery podcast.
Dobnak, you might recall, was a revelation and savior down the stretch for the 101-win Bomba Squad Twins of 2019. He was on such a roll (1.59 ERA in the regular season) that he started Game 2 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium (allowing four runs in two innings). He was solid in the COVID season of 2020, making 10 starts (6-4, 4.05 ERA).
That led Derek Falvey and the Twins to give Dobnak a five-year, $9.25 million contract in the spring of 2021. It gave Dobnak financial security while the Twins had the potential for a cheap mid-to-back of the rotation starter for years to come.
But a rare ligament injury cropped up in 2021 and changed Dobnak’s career trajectory. He pitched only 65⅔ largely ineffective innings with the Twins since signing the five-year deal while spending a lot of time rehabbing or in Class AAA. While the money spent was hardly back-breaking even for the frugal Twins, it was several million down the drain (with the rest of his the final year of the deal offloaded on Detroit).
Paddack came over with Emilio Pagán in exchange for Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker. The Twins were more or less right about Rogers, who became expensive (three years, $33 million) and has only recently recaptured his form. Pagán was a disaster in 2022 but pretty good in 2023 with the Twins. Rooker has become a masher and a player the Twins wish they had back.
