Minnesota Summers Are Trending More Humid

Rumbles of morning thunder give way to a drying trend this afternoon as winds pick up from the northwest. Sunday will feel like September with low 70s, patchy clouds and gusty winds. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

June 25, 2022 at 2:30AM

Weekend Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook for the last weekend of June. Scattered showers and storms will be possible in the morning ours of Saturday with lingering t-showers possible through about midday. Clearing takes place Saturday night into Sunday with cooler, drier and less humid conditions by Sunday. Late weekend will be quite pleasant, but it will also be a bit breezy.

Weekend Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Soggy Start Friday - Nicer Sunday

Here's the weather outlook from 7AM Saturday to 7PM Sunday. Showers and storms will linger through Saturday morning across eastern parts of Minnesota and into Wisconsin. Isolated midday/early afternoon t-showers can't be ruled out as the entire system slides east. Sunday will be the cooler, drier day of the weekend with gusty NW winds.

Weather Outlook From AM Saturday to PM Sunday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential Through Next Week

Here's the extended rainfall potential through the weekend, which shows areas of heavy rainfall across much of the state and especially up north where some 1" to 2" can't be ruled out. The heaviest rain will fall Friday night into early Saturday morning, while drier conditions will be in place late Saturday into Sunday.

Rainfall Through The Weekend (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Dry June So Far

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average so far this June. Note that many locations are dealing with deficits, several of which are -1.00" to -2.00" or more below average through the first 23 days of the month. Minneapolis is nearly -2.65" below average, which is good enough for the 7th driest start to any June on record.

Rainfall departure From Average So Far This June (Praedicitx/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota Drought Update

Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 10% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities June Summary So Far

So far this June, the Twin Cities is running nearly +3.5F above average and good enough for the 13th warmest start to any June on record. We're also nearly -2.65" below average and the 7th driest start to any June on record.

June Summary For The Twin Cities (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows scattered showers and storms lingering through the early morning hours with locally heavy rainfall. The midday hours will feature isolated t-storms possible, but things should begin to quiet down as we head into the later afternoon hours. Highs will warm into the mid 80s, which will be a little cooler than it has been as of late.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temperatures starting in the lower 70s and warming in the mid 80s. Showers and storms will be likely early in the morning with isolated showers and storms through midday / early afternoon. Breezy winds will continue through much of the day as winds switch from the southwest to the northwest and gust close to 25mph to 30mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedicitx/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temperatures on Saturday with highs warming in the mid 80s. It'll be a cooler and more refreshing day on Sunday with highs in the mid 70s, but we'll warm closer to average in the mid 80s as we approach midweek.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days keeps us unsettled through the early part of Saturday with highs in the mid 80s. Sunday will be the cooler and drier day of the weekend with highs only warming into the mid 70s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible at points next week with gradually warming temps back to at or slightly above average temps.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps cool to closer to average levels through the week ahead with a slight bump by the end of next week. We may see another slight cooling trend during the first few days of July, but the 4th of July week shows temps warming to well above average levels once again.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the Central US with cooler than average temps along the West Coast and especially in California.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place from the Southwest to the midsection of the nation. Drier weather will settle in across the Southern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota Summers Are Trending More Humid
By Paul Douglas

Summer days aren't getting hotter in Minnesota (yet) but nighttime temperatures are warming, a reflection of more water in the air. Summers are now consistently more humid, and all that extra water means heavier downpours and more numerous flooding events.

Thunderstorms are nature's automatic pressure-relief valves: hot, steamy, buoyant air bubbles up into towering thunderheads, which in turn cool the atmosphere below.

A warming atmosphere world wide holds about 8% more water vapor than it did a century ago and that has consequences.

Rumbles of morning thunder give way to a drying trend this afternoon as winds pick up from the northwest. Sunday will feel like September with low 70s, patchy clouds and gusty winds. Too soon?

No outrageous weather is brewing next week, just a string of 80s spilling into the 4th of July weekend. NOAA model guidance predicts a run of 90s by the second week of July.

Factoid: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center counts 58 preliminary tornadoes in Minnesota so far in '22.

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: AM T-storm. PM drying. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 82.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: WNW 10-15. Low: 60.

SUNDAY: Sunny peeks, windy and cooler. Winds: NW 15-30. High: 73.

MONDAY: Blue sky, less wind. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 81.

TUESDAY: Some sun, passing PM T-shower. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 64. High: 80.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High: 87.

THURSDAY: Sticky sun, late thunder? Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 71. High: 92.

FRIDAY: Unsettled, few T-storms nearby. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 83.

This Day in Weather History

June 25th

2003: Heavy rain falls across central Minnesota. Elk River picks up 8.19 inches. 4.36 inches fall in 4 hours in Maplewood, and there are reports of street flooding in St. Paul. Strong winds topple trees in Richfield.

1950: Flooding hits Warroad. Strong winds accompany waters that rose 4 feet in 10 minutes.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

June 22nd

Average High: 82F (Record: 98F set in 1934)

Average Low: 63F (Record: 46F set in 1957)

Record Rainfall: 2.88" set in 1978

Record Snowfall: None

Twin Cities Almanac For June 25th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

June 25th

Sunrise: 5:27am

Sunset: 9:03pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 35 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 17 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 minutes

Moon Phase for June 25th at Midnight

2.8 Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase for June 25th at Midnight (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows well above average temps across the Southern US with record highs possible. Folks along the Front Range will be cooler than average with chances of showers and storms.

National Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through PM Sunday. Ongoing showers and storms will be possible through the Midwest and will move into the Eastern US this weekend. There will also be scattered showers and storms in the Southwest with locally heavy rainfall through Sunday.

Weather Outlook Through Sunday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the Midwest and Southwest with isolated flood concerns. There will also be areas of heavy rain in the Eastern US and along the Gulf Coast.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Magnetic pole flip on Earth? Probably not soon"

"Earth's magnetic field has flipped polarity repeatedly – and erratically – over the known history of our planet. The average time between polarity flips is 200,000 to 300,000 years, by some estimates. But the last magnetic reversal was 780,000 years ago. So, therefore, is the next flip imminent? A weakness of Earth's magnetic field – in a spot in the ocean known as the South Atlantic Anomaly – has led some to believe a reversal might happen soon. However, a new study announced June 7, 2022, says … not so fast. Researchers from Lund University and Oregon State University published their study in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on June 6, 2022. They analyzed 9,000 years of evidence to show the South Atlantic Anomaly is probably not a sign of an impending pole reversal."

"Deadly heatwaves threaten economies too"

"More frequent and intense heatwaves are the most deadly form of extreme weather made worse by global warming, with death tolls sometimes in the thousands, but they can also have devastating economic impacts too, experts say. The prolonged and unseasonable scorchers gripping the central United States and rolling northward across western Europe, sending the thermometer above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), are likely to cause both."

"Stubborn La Niña looks like it may stick around for a rare third year"

"A stubborn La Niña climate pattern in the tropical Pacific is likely to persist through the summer and may hang on into 2023, forecasters say. La Niña has been implicated not only in the unrelenting drought in the U.S. Southwest, but also in drought and flooding in various parts of the world, including ongoing drought and famine in the Horn of Africa. If La Niña persists into the fall and winter, it would be only the third time since 1950 that the climate pattern has continued for three consecutive winters in the Northern Hemisphere, the U.N. World Meteorological Organization said last week."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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