Minneapolis-to-Duluth rail line could spur billions in development

The proposed passenger rail line from Minneapolis to Duluth is expected to help generate nearly $2 billion in development around five Minnesota stations, including almost $1 billion around the Minneapolis station at the Twins' new ballpark, according to a study presented Tuesday.

A line supporting eight daily trains capable of speeds up to 110 miles per hour would generate 13,833 jobs throughout the corridor, the Minneapolis Transportation & Public Works Committee and Anoka County board were told in separate presentations.

"This is real," said Alex Metcalf, president of Transportation Economics & Management Systems (TEMS), a passenger-rail planning firm based in Rockville, Md., which prepared the study.

And with key players in Washington supporting the proposed line -- including both of Minnesota's U.S. senators, Norm Coleman and Amy Klobuchar, and Minnesota Congressman Jim Oberstar, chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee -- Minnesota has a solid chance of persuading the Federal Railroad Administration to fund 70 to 80 percent of a line that could cost $400 million to complete.

The projected cost of the line, if its trains reach speeds of 110 miles per hour, is $362.6 million, according to the TEMS study. But that figure does not include the cost of building stations or the unspecified amount Burlington Northern Santa Fe will charge for use of its property.

When Metcalf presents the nearly complete, year-long TEMS study to Gov. Tim Pawlenty and the Minnesota Department of Transportation, presumably this week, he will likely emphasize the 889,000 passengers expected to ride the train in 2012, the year the 150-mile line is scheduled to debut.

He will mention the $47 million in additional tax base the line will mean for the state. And he will explain that to obtain federal funding, a passenger line of this magnitude must show positive operating-cost and cost-benefit ratios -- and the TEMS feasibility study of this line, called the Cambridge line, indicates the line will do both.

It may take 18 months or more to do an environmental study to convince federal officials, but this is a line whose future is based on speed. According to the TEMS study, a line with trains reaching 110 miles per hour would be more cost-efficient than one in which they reach 125 miles per hour.

The higher speeds mean nearly twice the investment in infrastructure. For a passenger line from Minneapolis to Duluth, the cost of infrastructure for trains reaching 110 miles per hour is $298.6 million, according to the TEMS study. For trains reaching 125 miles per hour, the infrastructure cost would be $545.8 million, Metcalf said. (Equipment costs would be $64 million for either speed.)

Development potential

The payoff may be seen in the development around stations, presumed to be in Minneapolis, Coon Rapids, Cambridge, Hinckley, Duluth and Superior. The Minneapolis station will already benefit from the Hiawatha line, as well as the Northstar commuter line, scheduled to open in 2009, not long after the Twins' new ballpark opens. That station is expected to see development in the $730 million to $990 million range, the TEMS study said.

But the biggest benefactor could be Hinckley, the casino city of 1,600 that the study says could see as much as $340 million in new development around its station. The Anoka County station (the Coon Rapids Foley Boulevard station) could reach $260 million in new surrounding development; Cambridge is projected to see as much as $170 million in new development; Duluth, $190 million, and Superior, Wis., as much as $90 million.

Metcalf emphasized the possibilities of the Cambridge line and said TEMS would not hesitate to offer a negative opinion on a rail plan, if warranted. He said a TEMS study showed a passenger line from Denver to Kansas City could not make a profit and talked of other projected failures.

But of the Cambridge line, he told officials from the Anoka County Rail Authority: "Here's an opportunity, guys. You should take full advantage of it."