Minneapolis crime is falling in 2025, even amid high-profile violence

Despite seven mass shootings this year — four since August, including at Annunciation Church, and three others on or near a troubled stretch of Lake Street — Minneapolis remains on track to see a fall in all categories of major crime this year.

The disconnect between the overall data and recent events is reflected in perceptions about safety among some residents of the state’s largest city.

“I don’t believe there has been an improvement,” Larry Naber, 84, told the Minnesota Star Tribune from his porch a block away from Folwell Park on the North Side. He said the sound of gunfire at night and open-air drug dealing erodes any confidence in the positive trends. “We still hear gunshots every week.”

The city has recorded about 50 fewer shootings, nine fewer homicides and a third fewer carjackings and other robberies compared to last year. Stolen vehicles, at record highs in 2023, have fallen by a quarter.

Some crime metrics are even below pre-pandemic levels, with about 18% fewer robberies and 28% fewer burglaries compared to the first nine months of 2019. And despite this year’s mass shootings, the tally of gunshot victims has dropped closer to the city’s pre-pandemic volume.

Shootings are down in most neighborhoods, including a collective 33% drop that has driven the North Side toward record lows.

Folwell and some other neighborhoods like Jordan have seen significant reductions in gun violence. Those two combined for 16 shootings so far this year, compared to nearly 40 last year through September.

“Closer to the pandemic there were more shootings, but it’s been pretty much nothing now,” Young said.

Another neighbor, Robert Blackman, 74, also said he’s noticed fewer shootings since the pandemic. In the past, while walking his dog, Blackman said he’d sometimes find shell casings in the alley but hasn’t seen any in the past couple of years.

Apart from shootings, some residents told the Star Tribune they remain concerned about frequent drug dealing, even during midday hours, just a couple of blocks away on Lowry Avenue.

While the North Side has seen dramatic reductions in shootings, progress on the South Side has been slower.

The Fifth Precinct saw more shooting victims this year than last, due in part to the Annunciation Church shooting that killed two children and injured 28 others.

Shootings are also down across most neighborhoods in the Third Precinct covering southeast Minneapolis, but a handful of mass shootings in Phillips and Longfellow have increased the homicide count there, which outpaces last year.

Residents who live a couple of blocks south of the mass shooting site near Cristo Rey Jesuit High School, expressed mixed opinions about safety.

Emanuel Cole lives in a house on 4th Avenue S. He doesn’t believe citywide crime is down.

“We know it isn’t down, and anyone who lives around here knows it” said Cole, 53.

The most frequent issues he sees are car break-ins, open drug use, and thefts, including people stealing from his garage.

Three different mass shootings along Lake Street near the end of summer only added to the neighborhood’s concerns.

Cole said it has been sad for him seeing the large number of homeless people in the area, many of them struggling with addiction and mental health issues. Cole said it seems like they roam further into neighborhoods each time the city clears an encampment.

“They don’t have camps anymore, so they’re out everywhere all through the neighborhood, all times of day and night,” Cole said.

A couple of blocks away from Cole’s house, renter Diana Current said she doesn’t feel like the area is unsafe. She thinks the primary need is assisting those who are homeless and giving them resources to help deal with trauma or poverty.

“I feel like people are struggling, they’ve got some trauma, and that stuff is coming out in the incorrect manner by taking it out on other people,” she said, adding that she was previously homeless.

A midyear Council on Criminal Justice report showed declines in violent crime rates in major American cities, including Chicago, Washington and Baltimore.

The Minneapolis Police Department did not provide an interview with Chief Brian O’Hara for this story, but both the chief and Mayor Jacob Frey discussed the positive trends in a recent news conference after the city graduated its largest police recruitment class in years.

They both acknowledged that the perception of safety took a hit after the four mass shootings at the end of the summer.

“We’re doing everything we can to address the spike, but the overall picture is, yes, overall violence, all categories of violence, still remains down year to date, as well as property crime,” O’Hara said.

Frey followed the chief by saying it’s important to address the perception of safety along with the actual crime trends.

Chris Uggen, a professor of sociology at the University of Minnesota, said it can be especially hard to reduce safety concerns given the dramatic events of this summer.

The assassinations of Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, and the Annunciation church shooting were particularly traumatic events that can ripple through communities, he said.

“Proximity really matters here — proximity in time and in space, and also in terms of our identity,” Uggen said. “Parents certainly look at that church shooting and and experience some degree of identification and trauma.”

Despite five years passing since the murder of George Floyd by a former Minneapolis officer, Uggen said the trauma remains fresh for many, especially Black residents and some of his own students.

“My students were saying, ‘I was watching someone who looked like my dad being killed on the street,’” he said.

In particular, incidents are becoming more lethal on average.