Duck Hunting Season Continues
Thanks to my good friend Lance Krupke for the picture below who spent the weekend in a duck blind with his 3 sons, Marcus, Jordan and Drake in western Minnesota. Reports suggest that the season has been off to a slower than in years past, but ducks are still flying. The summer weather across the Midwest was hot and dry with well below average precipitation, which impacted the waterfowl broods this year. A study from earlier in the 2021 (Link below) suggested that North Dakota mallard numbers were down nearly 50% from last year and Pintails fell nearly 66% from last year. Yes, duck hunters are taking notice, but interestingly, drought does have positive impacts on America's wetlands. An article from David Brakhage at Ducks Unlimited (Link Below) suggests that there are longer-term benefits that help improve the quality of the waterfowl habitat.
"2021 North Dakota Survey Indicates Ducks are in Decline"
"In the absence of Federal surveys, coupled with an unfortunate drought, the "duck factory" may be experiencing a drop in populations. Dampened by Drought In the absence of 2021 breeding population and pond count data. In a nutshell, the prairie nesting grounds in 2021 are much drier than the flooded conditions often found in recent years—and the ducks have noticed. In data gleaned from a Delta Waterfowl news release, North Dakota's 2021 survey indicates decreases for most major species from a year ago. That includes America's bread-and-butter duck, the mallard, which decreased by 48.7 percent from a year ago with a breeding figure of 448,116 birds in 2021. While that's still the 28th highest breeding number in the state's history, it's also the lowest number for greenheads in North Dakota since 1993. Pintails fell to 81,716 breeders, a 65.9 percent decline from last year and some 67.7 percent below the long-term average. American wigeon also declined some 49.1 percent from 2020, down to 32,998 breeders this spring and some 15.4 percent below the long-term average. And green-winged teal dropped by 49.6 percent this year, although the 2021 breeding figure of 34,710 is still some 70.3 percent above North Dakota's long-term average. There were a couple of species that provided a glimmer of good news, including blue-winged teal, as their numbers fell by only 9.5 percent. Delta Waterfowl points out that teal prefer seasonal and temporary wetlands and appear to have stayed in the Peace Garden State, while pintails—which use similar breeding habitat—apparently took a look, assessed the conditions, and moved on."
"The Positive Effects of Drought"
"Wetlands have to dry out occasionally to provide good habitat for waterfowl. Wetlands are defined by at least seasonal water, hydric soils, and aquatic plants. Plants are key features of all wetlands. They are a primary source of food and cover for ducks and other wildlife that depend on wetlands. As these plants grow and die, they deposit leaves, stems, and other material in wetland basins. This plant matter is attacked by decomposers (microbes and insects), and the leftover organic material gradually accumulates on the bottom of wetland basins. Nutrients get trapped in this "organic soup" where a lack of oxygen inhibits further decomposition. When a wetland dries out and bottom sediments are exposed to air, wonderful things happen. The loose organic soup that has accumulated over time finally has a chance to consolidate and firm up. Oxygen reinvigorates decomposition and fuels a rapid breakdown of organic matter. Nutrients are released, having the same effect on vegetation as fertilizing a lawn. Plant seeds that have been dormant in the soil have a chance to germinate and grow. The clock on the natural aging process is turned back, and the wetland is rejuvenated."
See more from Ducks Unlimited HERE:
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. Some of the biggest deficits include Bismarck, ND (5th driest January 1st - October 1st on record) and Minot, ND (1st driest such period on record). The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -5.00" below average since January 1st, which is the 54th driest January 1st - October 1st on record. Meanwhile, Wausau, WI is nearly +9.60" above average precipitation for the year and is sitting at their 3rd wettest start to any year on record.
Drought Update For Minnesota
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 24% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought, those locations are located in the northern part of the state. Nearly 50% of the state is still under a severe drought (again, mainly up north) and about 76% percent of the state is in a moderate drought, which includes the Twin Cities.
Rainfall Potential Through AM Monday
Lingering showers and storms will slowly rotate through the region PM Saturday into AM Sunday. There could be a few light showers through the day Sunday, but much of the accumulating rain will be done by Sunday morning.
Simulated Radar From AM Sunday to AM Monday
Here's the Simulated radar from AM Sunday to AM Monday, which shows a few lingering showers across the region, but the heaviest will be mainly east of the metro and into Wisconson.
3 Day Weather Outlook For The Twin Cities
The 3 day weather outlook for the Twin Cities shows improving weather as we head into early next week with highs warming to above average levels once again.
Sunday Weather Outlook
Sunday should be a mostly dry day, but there could be a few lingering sprinkles or light rain showers early in the day. Areas of low clouds will linger across the eastern part of the state and into Wisconsin, but skies will gradually brighten later in the day.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
Sunday will start off a bit damp with low clouds and a few sprinkles. Again, skies should slowly brighten as we head through the day with more sun expected late afternoon. Meanwhile, western Minnesota should see sunshine and milder temps. NW winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 20mph.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
Highs on Saturday will still be nearly +5F to +10F above average with readings warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the state. There will be lingering low clouds and a few sprinkles across eastern MN and into Wisconsin. Sunnier skies will be found farther west with highs approaching 80F.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook through the first full week of October looks warmer than average by nearly +10F with highs warming into the lower 70s. It also appears that we'll be entering another dry stretch of weather through much of next week.
7 Day Weather Outlook
Dry and mostly sunny weather continues through midweek with highs running well above average. Showers and storms arrive late week and potentially into the weekend.
Fall Color Tracker
According to the MN DNR, much of the state is already experiencing minor changes in the fall color. Keep in mind that much of the summer was hot and dry, so some of the color won't be as vibrant this year. With that being said, there are already spots across the northern part of the state that are at peak color right now! See the latest update from the MN DNR HERE:
Peak Color - Lake Bemidji State Park
According to the MN DNR, Lake Bemidji State Park in the northern part of the state is sitting at peak color now! The photo that Christa Drake submitted on the MN DNR website on 9/28, certainly looks like peak color to me!
Fall Color Depends on Weather
Ever wonder why some years, fall color is so vibrant vs some years, fall color tends to be a bit more dull? Val Cervenka, Coordinator from the DNR Forest Health Program, shares how the weather can play a roll in those fall colors. Due to the hot and dry summer that most of experienced, it is likely that fall foliage could be less impressive this year with more tans, bronzes and auburns.
Typical Peak Dates For Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, fall colors typically start to peak across the northern part of the state in mid/late September. Peak color typically arrives in central and southern Minnesota late September and into early/mid October. Note that over the next several weeks, you'll notice some big changes in the landscape as we head deeper into fall.
"A world first: Ocean drone captures video from inside a hurricane"
"NOAA and Saildrone are collecting scientific data from inside Hurricane Sam. Saildrone Inc. and the NOAA have released the first video footage gathered by an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) from inside a major hurricane barreling across the Atlantic Ocean. The Saildrone Explorer SD 1045 was directed into the midst of Hurricane Sam, a category 4 hurricane, which is currently on a path that fortunately will miss the U.S. east coast. SD1045 is battling 50 foot waves and winds of over 120 mph to collect critical scientific data and, in the process, is giving us a completely new view of one of earth's most destructive forces. Equipped with a specially designed "hurricane wing," enabling it to operate in extreme wind conditions, SD 1045 is braving Hurricane Sam in the open ocean, collecting real-time observations for numerical hurricane prediction models, which are expected to yield new insights into how large and destructive tropical cyclones grow and intensify. "Saildrone is going where no research vessel has ever ventured, sailing right into the eye of the hurricane, gathering data that will transform our understanding of these powerful storms," said Richard Jenkins, Saildrone founder and CEO. "After conquering the Arctic and Southern Ocean, hurricanes were the last frontier for Saildrone survivability. We are proud to have engineered a vehicle capable of operating in the most extreme weather conditions on earth."
Active Tropics Continue
We're past the official peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but things are still quite active with Hurricane Sam. Hurricane Sam and Tropical Storm Victor active in the basin.
Tracking Sam in the Atlantic
Here is a look at Hurricane Sam from midday Saturday when it was a category 4 storm with 130mph winds northeast of Bermuda. Thankfully, Sam was mainly a fish storm, staying over the open waters of the Atlantic. According to @philklotzbach on Twitter: "Sam has now been a major (Category 3+) hurricane for 7 consecutive days. Only 6 Atlantic hurricanes in satellite era (1966 onwards) have been at major hurricane strength for longer consecutive span." Now that's impressive! Sam will continue to deteriorate over the next few days as it races north into the cooler northern Atlantic Ocean waters.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in the eastern half of the nation with cooler than average temps across the western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is an increased chance of precipitation across the northern tier of the nation, which includes folks from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. As we approach mid October, there could be better chances of rain closer to home. Stay tuned...
I Winterized My Home Too Early This Year
By Paul Douglas
My timing stinks. We took our boat out of the water 10 days ago, schlepped the lawn furniture indoors, replaced T-shirts with sweatshirts and put up a Christmas tree (we're freaks).
And here we are, staring at a string of 70s the first week of October; a good 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year. Maybe it's tradition? When I arrived in Minnesota (1983) the average date of the first frost at MSP was October 3. Now it's October 13, based on the new 1991-2020 averages. I guess I should study the weather maps before retiring our summer gear.
Yesterday's heavy showers push east today and the sun should pop out - temperatures close to 60F for the start of today's Twin Cities Marathon. A streak of sunny 70s are on tap into at least Wednesday, before an odd holding pattern squirts moisture from the east coast into Minnesota, increasing the chance of showers by late week.
I have it on good authority that winter is coming. But winter may be delayed. Plenty of sunny, lukewarm days ahead.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 70.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: N 5-10. Low: 53.
MONDAY: Blue sky, still mild. Winds: N 7-12. High: 72.
TUESDAY: September 35th. Lukewarm sunshine. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 54. High: 74.
WEDNESDAY: Some sunshine, still tranquil. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 57. High: 75.
THURSDAY: Clouds increase, late shower? Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 72.
FRIDAY: Showers, risk of a T-shower. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High: 73.
SATURDAY: More showers and T-storms. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 59. High: 68.
This Day in Weather History
October 3rd
1999: The earliest ever single digit temperature in Minnesota is recorded at Embarrass, with a low of 9.
1922: A hot fall day occurs in Minnesota. Notable highs are 95 in Ada and 93 at Moorhead.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 3rd
Average High: 64F (Record: 90F set in 1997)
Average Low: 45F (Record: 26F set in 1996)
Record Rainfall: 2.62" set in 1903
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1935
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 15th
Sunrise: 7:13am
Sunset: 6:49pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 35 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~4 Hour & 2 Minutes
Moon Phase for October 3rd at Midnight
2.2 Days Before New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Moon and Venus in October 2021 - The brightest planet, Venus, has been in the west after sunset for some months. Now, one of northern summer's most beloved stars, Antares in Scorpius, is near Venus in the western twilight. And, beginning around October 7, 2021 – or perhaps more realistically for Northern Hemisphere viewers, October 8 – you will see the young moon return to the evening sky to sweep past Venus over several evenings. Their exact conjunction will take place on October 9 around 19 UTC. That's when Venus and the moon will have the same right ascension (comparable to earthly longitude) on the sky's dome. But don't let that date or time worry you. Watch for the moon and Venus on all of these evenings. Just be sure to catch them soon after sunset. They'll quickly follow the sun below the western horizon."
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows above average temps across much of the nation with lingering showers and storms in the southern US and east of the Mississippi River.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through into early next week shows a slow moving storm system pushing east of the Mississippi River Sunday and into Monday. Scattered showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will be possible in a few spots, while folks in the Western US will remain dry.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center heavier precipitation potential will be found in the eastern half of the country and especially along the east coast, where some 2" to 4" tallies can't be ruled out. Also note that there appears to be a chance of precipitation across parts of the Western US, which will be very welcomed.
Climate Stories
"US inks $20 million deal to launch high-tech weather satellites in space"
"The United States is aiming to launch a group of small satellites to fill a critical gap in the ability to foresee precipitation dangers, like the deluge that overwhelmed Northeastern cities at the start of September. The US Air Force announced Thursday a nearly $20 million contract with Tomorrow.io to develop and deploy an entire constellation of small satellites equipped with advanced radar to measure precipitation from space. "This satellite constellation partnership with Tomorrow.io will fill critical weather sensing gaps and give Air Force Weather operators the global missions they support vastly improved awareness of current and forecasted mission-limiting weather conditions," said John Dreher, chief of the weather systems branch at Hanscom Air Force Base in Massachusetts. Currently, there is only a single satellite equipped with that capability among the more than 3,000 active satellites orbiting the Earth."
"Why climate change makes fall foliage harder to spot"
"A warmer climate can also brings invasive pests, the spread of new tree species, and diseases – all factors that could make for less vibrant fall colors in the U.S., scientists say. Fewer colorful leaves could also affect the economy of states that depend on fall tourism. Droughts that cause leaves to turn brown and wither before they can reach peak color. Heat waves prompting leaves to fall before autumn even arrives. Extreme weather events like hurricanes that strip trees of their leaves altogether. For a cheery autumnal activity, leaf peeping is facing some serious threats from the era of climate change. Leaf peeping, the practice of traveling to watch nature display its fall colors, is a beloved annual activity in many corners of the country, especially New England and New York. But recent seasons have been disrupted by weather conditions there and elsewhere, and the trend is likely to continue as the planet warms, said arborists, conservationists, and ecologists."
See more from CS Monitor HERE:
"These 7 Cities Embrace Winter Like Nowhere Else"
"From ReykjavÃk to Minneapolis, winter isn't just tolerated here, it's celebrated. Imagine a freezing city in the dead of winter. But instead of people tucked away inside and events and gatherings canceled until the snow melts, the city brings life to the coldest season of the year by throwing parties around fire pits, holding outdoor concerts under twinkle lights, and encouraging its residents and visitors to get outside on ice skates, bikes, and cross-country skis. These cities around the world celebrate the chillier months in a big way, proving that frigid weather doesn't have to mean being shut in. From downtown Denver, you can see the snowcapped Rocky Mountains towering on the horizon to the west. A love of winter runs deep here. From ski-conditioning classes held outdoors at Red Rocks Amphitheater to a Midwinter Bluegrass Festival in February, there's no shortage of things to be excited about during the colder months. To get people exploring downtown during the season, the city sets up a two-mile parade of lit-up floats, plus outdoor scavenger hunts, with prizes for those who successfully make their way around Denver's art, landmarks, and history."
See more from Outside Online HERE:
"Climate change: COP26 is the biggest conference in the world. Here's why it matters"
"The planet, you've likely heard, isn't doing so well. The latest report from the United Nations' chief climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, shows global temperatures are very likely to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in the next few decades. Human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are unequivocally the cause. Increasing temperatures, scientists have shown, will see more extreme weather events occurring more often — more hurricanes, more flooding, more fire, more drought — and result in a host of knock-on effects that threaten ecosystems, livelihoods and life as we know it. Unless nations take drastic action to wean themselves off fossil fuels in the coming decade. That's why November's UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, is being hailed as "the world's best last chance" to get the climate emergency under control. To ensure temperature change remains "well below" the 2 degrees Celsius agreed to by UN signatories in the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries need to act fast and double down on commitments to reach net zero emissions."
