December 15th Tornado Update
Hard to believe that it was 1 week ago that a very rare and record setting severe weather event unfolded across parts of the Upper Midwest including SE Minnesota. The latest updated from the @NWSTwinCities and @NWSLaCross, there were a few more tornadoes confirmed across parts of the county warning areas. Between both offices, there were 15 confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota and 4 in Wisconsin that day. Unreal....
Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to AM Monday
Here's the weather outlook from AM Wednesday to AM Monday, which shows more active weather across the Upper Midwest (including Minnesota) as we head into the end of the week and weekend ahead. There could be a brief light mix early Thursday morning and another chance of light rain/snow on (Christmas Eve) Friday as high temperatures warm to near 40F. The weekend ahead could feature light snow accumulations on (Christmas Day) Saturday and another shot of snow (possibly plowable for some) on Sunday! Stay tuned...
GFS Extended Snowfall Potential
Here's the extended snowfall potential through the Christmas weekend... It's a little too early to tell if and how much snow could fall closer to home, but it appears that we could be heading into a more active weather pattern with several shots of light snow through early next week. This could bring some shovelable/plowable amounts to parts of the region through early next week. Stay tuned!
Drought Update For Minnesota
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 1% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 36% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 27%, down from 59% 3 months ago. Nearly 49% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average, including the Twin Cities. The MSP Airport is still -5.73" below average since January 1st, which is the 57th driest January 1st - December 20th on record.
Wednesday Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday, which shows mostly sunny, quiet and somewhat milder weather in place as we head through the day. High temperatures will top out near 30F, which will be slightly above average for the first FULL day of winter.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday show temps starting in the lower 10s in the morning and warming to near 30F by the afternoon. Winds will be lighter than they were on Tuesday, but southerly wind gusts could approach 15mph at times through the day.
Chilly Feels Like Temps on Wednesday
Here are the hourly feels like temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday, which show readings starting in the single digits in the morning, but will be warmer (near 20F) in the afternoon.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
High temps across the region on Wednesday will warm into the 20s & 30s across much of the state, which will be near and slightly above average across the southern half of the state. A few folks across the northern part of Minnesota will only warm into the upper teens, which close to if not slightly below average.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures through the rest of the week will warm to the mid/upper 30s by the end of the week, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average. The weekend looks a little cooler with highs falling into the upper 20s to near 30F.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the extended weather forecast through the Christmas weekend and into early next week. The weather forecast looks fairly mild through the end of the week with a somewhat more active weather patter developing through the Christmas weekend. There will be several chances of snow, some of which could bring shovelable/plowable snow to parts of the region. Stay tuned...
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, we'll be warmer later this week with high temperatures approaching 40F on Thursday and Friday. The last full week of December could be a little colder, but it's a bit uncertain how cold at the moment.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows below average reading across the Western US and northern tier of the nation by the end of the month and early January. Meanwhile, much of the Southern US will running well above average once again.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather in place across the nation. More active weather will be possible from the Southwest to the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Mild Christmas Eve But Snowier Days Ahead
By Paul Douglas
Most days I feel like Greg on the HBO Max series "Succession". And here I thought my extended family was dysfunctional. Wow. I'm often a bewildered observer: predicting weather while witnessing, with greater frequency, the weather-related fingerprints of a rapidly-warming planet. I've been speaking out for 25 years and I'm not about to stop now.
We don't agree on much these days but all of us want a hopeful future for our kids and grandkids, one with fewer unpleasant weather disasters and disruptions.
The pattern looks ripe for a conga-line of snowstorms (and some ice) from this weekend into early January as a dome of blistering cold over the western US provides Minnesota with consistent cold and a steady infusion of southern moisture.
A little drizzle on Christmas Eve gives way to a few snowy inches Saturday, potentially plowable amounts Sunday night into Monday, with more snow late next week. We may just make up for lost time in the snowfall department. January WILL be colder. Greg is fairly confident.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Winds: S 10-15. High: 32.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with slight chance of light mix overnight. Winds: S 5. Low: 23.
THURSDAY: Early ice, then some PM sun. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 37.
FRIDAY: Freezing drizzle early. Unusually mild. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 20. High: 42.
SATURDAY: PM snow, few inches possible. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 25. High: 29.
SUNDAY: Dry start, more snow late PM hours? Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 17. High: 30.
MONDAY: Slushy start, then some clearing. Winds: W 15-30. Wake-up: 22. High: 25.
TUESDAY: Potential for more light snow. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 11. High: 23.
This Day in Weather History
2000: A chilly day in Minnesota, with a high of zero degrees in Minneapolis, and a low of 14 below.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 25F (Record: 53F set in 1890)
Average Low: 10F (Record: -20F set in 1983)
Record Rainfall: 0.52" set in 1968
Record Snowfall: 7.6" set in 1968
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 46 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 seconds
Moon Phase for December 22nd at Midnight
3.8 Days Before Last Quarter
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows above average temperatures across parts of the Central US, including Denver, CO, where highs will be near +20F above average! Meanwhile, areas of rain and mountain snow will be possible in the Northwest.
National Weather Outlook
The weather through the middle/end of the week shows active weather continuing in the Western US with heavy, flooding rains along the coast and heavy snow in the high elevations. This active weather could translate into more active weather across parts of the Central US later in the week and weekend ahead.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found in the Western US, where several inches of liquid precipitation will be possible. We're also getting indications of heavier precipitation across parts of the Ohio Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Region.
Extended Snowfall Potential
Here's the extended snowfall potential through the last full week December. Note that heavy snowfall potential will continue in the high elevations in the Western US as well as parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region.
"CLIMATE CHANGE IS GOING TO BE GROSS"
"My first sight of it came one morning in June, as I rode the ferry through the Bosporus strait: a toxic glint on the sea's surface. I initially thought it was oil, spilled from one of the many large container ships that pass through Istanbul via the Bosporus. Yet as we neared the glint, a sallow sludge marbled the water around the boat. In some areas, it was as thick and buoyant as fiberglass insulation. Its surface, coated with foamy bubbles and viscous puddles, was littered with balloons, bread crusts, and Styrofoam food containers. It's called marine mucilage, but the world knows it better as "sea snot," thanks to the tsunami of stories that went viral when it overtook the Sea of Marmara in May. The internet marveled at the mess and moved on, but here in Istanbul, the sea snot hijacked the summer. Its unearthly, unavoidable presence closed down beaches and dominated conversations. For some of us, it was more profoundly unsettling. This isn't what I imagined global warming would look like. I was braced for bigger wildfires and rising seas; I wasn't ready for sea snot. If the story of the Sea of Marmara in the summer of 2021 is a preview of what's to come, the effects of climate change will be not only terrifyingly destructive but also weird, uncomfortable, and unbearably gross."
"Himalayan glaciers melting at 'exceptional rate'"
"The accelerating melting of the Himalayan glaciers threatens the water supply of millions of people in Asia, new research warns. The study, led by the University of Leeds, concludes that over recent decades the Himalayan glaciers have lost ice ten times more quickly over the last few decades than on average since the last major glacier expansion 400-700 years ago, a period known as the Little Ice Age. The study also reveals that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking far more rapidly than glaciers in other parts of the world—a rate of loss the researchers describe as "exceptional". The paper, which is published in Scientific Reports, made a reconstruction of the size and ice surfaces of 14,798 Himalayan glaciers during the Little Ice Age. The researchers calculate that the glaciers have lost around 40 percent of their area—shrinking from a peak of 28,000 km2 to around 19,600 km2 today. During that period they have also lost between 390 km3 and 586 km3 of ice—the equivalent of all the ice contained today in the central European Alps, the Caucasus, and Scandinavia combined. The water released through that melting has raised sea levels across the world by between 0.92 mm and 1.38 mm, the team calculates."
"NASA Delays $10 Billion Space Telescope Yet Again. It Could Now Launch On Christmas Day"
"NASA has again delayed the multi-billion dollar James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), this time citing communications issues. The space telescope was due to launch on December 22, 2021 from the European Spaceport in Korou, French Guiana. The space agency is now saying "no earlier than" December 24, 2021. The launch window closes on January 7, 2022, though opens again on January 12, 2022. "Webb" was originally conceived in the 1990s and was first expected to launch in 2007. It had been expected to launch in March 2021, which COVID-19 delays put back to October 31 this year, then December 18 after an incident. Designed and funded by NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Webb is around the size of a tennis court and set to be the largest, most powerful and most complex space science telescope ever constructed."