Messy Weekend Precipitation
As we head into the weekend we will be watching the potential for some messy precipitation across the state. Precipitation will start off as some freezing drizzle across central and southern Minnesota Friday night to Saturday, mixing in with snow at times. All snow will be possible across northern Minnesota on Saturday. As we head toward Saturday night, we should see precipitation turn to all snow along with a push of moisture from the south, bringing the potential of a few inches of snow across southern Minnesota lasting into at least the morning hours on Sunday. Some of that snow could linger into Sunday afternoon, especially in northern portions of the state.
The heaviest expected snow will fall up along the North Shore, where we could see 3-6" of snow fall, as well as in southeastern Minnesota where up to around 4" will be possible.
Icing will also be a threat, particularly Friday night into Saturday, across central and southern Minnesota with up to a tenth of an inch possible.
Due to the potential of snow and ice across the region the next few days, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of central and southern Minnesota along with the North Shore. In the Twin Cities, the Winter Weather Advisory is in place from 4 AM Saturday through 6 AM Sunday.
Stronger Storm Next Week?
Meanwhile, models continue to indicate the potential for a more potent storm moving through the upper Midwest during the mid to late week time frame next week. It's way too early for any specifics, including track, timing, and potential accumulation, as there continues to be differences in the models in relation to particularly timing of the system. I'm not trying to be alarmist or hype this potential storm up - the signal has been in the models for a potential storm in the upper Midwest during this time frame the past several days - so this is more of a head-ups to keep an eye on this system just in case. Behind that we'll see colder temperatures move in for next weekend - more on that in the "Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook" section below.
The Extended Outlook Calls for "Weird"
By Paul Douglas
It's weird to be tracking drizzle in late January. Then again weird is the new normal. From record snow in October to 70s in November, our weather has become more head-scratching with time.
This weekend's storm looks like a giant nothing-burger. Minnesota will be on the northern fringe of accumulating snow, with maybe an inch or two of slush by midday Sunday.
A February Thaw is coming next week with a few afternoon highs near 32F before the next, potentially more significant storm arrives Thursday and Friday. An icy mix may end as heavy snow Friday, with a potential for plowable amounts, depending on the final track.
Counterclockwise winds swirling around this giant atmospheric-vaccuum-cleaner will inhale arctic air into Minnesota, with a run of subzero lows between February 7-15 or so. Probably the coldest air of a not-so-cold winter. 1-2 weeks of industrial-strength shivering, then a mild Pacific signal should, in theory, return by late February. No extended Polar Vortex is brewing. Not yet.
Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SATURDAY: Icy drizzle and light snow. Wake up 22. High 31. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind E 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: 1-2" snow early. PM clearing. Wake up 26. High 32. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Partly sunny, relatively mild. Wake up 22. High 32. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Fog and clouds give way to some sun. Wake up 18. High 30. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, another thaw. Wake up 23. High 34. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: Wet snow or icy mix. Wake up 31. High 33. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind N 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Potential for plowable snow. Wake up 16. High 19. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
This Day in Weather History
1994: Duluth has a record low of -35.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
Average High:25F (Record: 48F set in 1989)
Average Low:8F (Record: -30F set in 1887)
Average Precipitation:0.02" (Record: 0.49" set in 1878)
Average Snowfall: 0.4" (Record: 6.4" in 2014)
Record Snow Depth: 24" in 1969
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
*Length Of Day:9 hours,44 minutes and3 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday:~2 minute and 30 seconds
*When Do We Climb To 10 Hours Of Daylight?February 6th (10 hours,2 minutes, and 34 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 7:30 AM?: February 3rd (7:29 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 5:30 PM? February 7th (5:30 PM)
Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook
As we head through Saturday we will be watching some freezing drizzle or snow showers in the Twin Cities with temperatures climbing from the mid-20s in the morning to the low 30s for highs.
We will be watching a wintry mix of freezing drizzle and snow across portions of central and southern Minnesota as we head through the day Saturday, with mainly snow across northern portions of the state. Highs will be in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Highs on Saturday will be above average across the state - up to 15F degrees above average in northern Minnesota. The average high in the Twin Cities for January 30th is 25F.
Highs are expected to remain fairly steady the next several days in the Twin Cities in the low to mid-30s. Those slightly warmer temperatures in the mid-30s will move in right before that possible potent snow storm toward the middle and end of next week.
After that storm, however, models are indicating temperatures are going to plummet heading into next weekend, with highs potentially not making it above zero.
National Weather Forecast
The system that has been impacting the western United States with heavy rain and snow will be moving into the mid-section of the country on Saturday, bringing the threat of heavy snow and ice to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with storms possible in the central and southern Plains. A weakening system approaching the Pacific Northwest will bring rain and snow.
While we could see a foot or two of snow in some of the mountains out west, the main story through Sunday will be a band of at least 4-9" of snow from eastern Iowa into portions of the Ohio River Valley, including Milwaukee and Chicago. There is more on this upcoming storm - and its potential impacts on the Northeast later this weekend into next week - below.
Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Friday morning, January 29th, 2021
Weekend Winter Storm. As the system that has been impacting the western United States with heavy rain and snow moves east into the weekend, we are expecting a heavy band of snow to form later Saturday across portions of the upper Midwest, continuing across the region into portions of the Ohio River Valley Saturday Night into Sunday. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour will be possible, with some lake enhancement at times.
Winter Storm Watches. As we expect a heavy band of snow to fall with this system from Iowa into Ohio, Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the weekend across this region. These Winter Storm Watches include:
- Waterloo, IA: From 3 PM Saturday through Noon Sunday for 3-5" of snow and up to 0.10" of ice.
- Davenport, IA: From 3 PM Saturday through Noon Sunday for 4-8" of snow and a light glaze of ice.
- Milwaukee, WI: From 6 PM Saturday through 6 PM Sunday for 5-8" of snow and wind gusts to 35 mph.
- Chicago, IL: From 3 PM Saturday through 6 PM Sunday for 6-9" of snow and wind gusts to 35 mph.
- Kokomo, IN: From 7 PM Saturday through 1 AM Monday for 3-8" of snow.
- Fort Wayne, IN & Lima, OH: From 7 PM Saturday through 7 PM Sunday for 5-9" of snow.
Expected Snow Totals. A band of at least 4-9" of snow is expected to fall through the weekend from portions of eastern Iowa into northern Ohio. This is expected to be a heavy, wet snow, making it hard to remove after it falls. Strong winds could help exacerbate impacts, even though it is expected to be a wet snow. Travel is likely to be impacted across the region.
Northeast Storm Potential. Eventually a secondary low will form with this system across the eastern Carolinas, deepening near or offshore the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast late this weekend into early next week. There is still model uncertainty as to how much snow could fall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast later this weekend into early next week, but the potential for heavy snow does exist across the region. We will continue to update you on this storm over the next few days.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
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- D.J. Kayser