Messy start to Monday; another midweek snow chance

Forecast loop from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM Tuesday.

As we head into Sunday Night and Monday, we are tracking a messy system that'll bring ice, rain, and snow. There is still some uncertainty here across central and southern Minnesota during the overnight batch of precipitation as temperatures hover around freezing (making a difference whether what falls from the sky is freezing rain or plain rain), but here's the thought on how it's going to unfold across the region:

Areas across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin see the highest potential of several hours where temperatures aloft are above freezing, but they'll be below freezing at the surface. In these areas, a tenth to a quarter inch of ice could fall, causing havoc on the roadways.

Currently, the heaviest snow totals are expected farther up the North Shore where for areas from Two Harbors to Grand Marais and Grand Portage snow totals of 4-6" can't be ruled out. While up to an inch of snow is likely as you get closer to the metro, this will somewhat depend on when the change over to snow occurs - an earlier change over (during the midday hours) could increase snow totals for the metro.

This system is bringing a lot of precipitation along with it - especially across parts of southeastern Minnesota where over an inch of liquid could fall (in these areas, precipitation will predominantly be in rain).

Due to the expected wintry precipitation - including both the ice and snow - Winter Weather Advisories are in place Sunday Night into Monday across central Minnesota. Meanwhile, due to expected higher totals, Winter Storm Warnings are in place in eastern Minnesota, along the North Shore, and into Wisconsin.

So while we watch all the wintry (and rainy) precipitation across the state on Monday, we'll watch highs climb into the 30s.

Another snow chance will move across central and southern Minnesota as we head into Tuesday Night and the first day of March on Wednesday. Snowfall tallies of 1-3" will be possible as this light snow moves through the region.

_______________________________________________

Highs will be in the 30s for the first half of the week, generally around to above average (which is around 33F to begin the week, and 35F to end the week). Behind the Wednesday light snow, cooler temperatures move in with 20s for Thursday. However, we start to warm back up toward the weekend, with 30F expected Friday.

Warmer weather continues into next weekend, with highs in the 30s expected next weekend. There does appear to be a very slight cool down heading into the second week of March, with low 30s possible on March 7th and 8th. There could be a couple of precipitation chances next weekend, but it's too far out to put much stock in just yet.

_______________________________________________

I'm feeling a little better about Minnesota's nagging drought. MSP has picked up nearly 6" of liquid water since December 1, much of it falling as snow. There is anywhere from 2-6" of "snow water" locked up in those drifts in your yard.

A sudden thaw coupled with heavy rain would result in rapid snowmelt and serious river flooding, leaving less water behind to soak into topsoil and our lakes and rivers. Of course our spring is unknowable, but if you've experienced spring river/stream flooding before you should remain alert.

.5 to 1" of rain falls in the metro today, leaving us with a mushy, slushy mess. Rain may freeze on contact, with dangerous glaze ice from the far northern suburbs eastward to Hayward, Eau Claire and Wausau, Wisconsin - where serious icing is possible today. An inch or two of snow is possible Wednesday, but no controversial storms are brewing.

No polar air either. Highs reach the 30s most days. MSP has enjoyed 12 subzero nights so far. Average for the entire winter now is 20 nights.

_______________________________________________

MONDAY: Rain. Icy north/east. Wake up 34. High 35. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind SE N 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, clouds increase. Wake up 26. High 37. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE SW 3-8 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Inch or two of slushy snow? Wake up 31. High 33. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE NE 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Peeks of sun, a cool breeze. Wake up 20. High 29. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE NW 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Early fog, then partly sunny. Wake up 10. High 32. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE S 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Clouds, few sprinkles or flurries. Wake up 25. High 37. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 27th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 2 minutes, and 59 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds

*When do we see 12 Hours of Daylight?: March 18th (12 hours, 2 minutes, 31 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrise Before DST Begins: March 11th (6:33 AM)
*Latest Sunset Before DST Begins: March 11th (6:13 PM)

This Day in Weather History
February 27th

1981: Thunderstorms move across Minnesota, dumping 1.61 inches of rain at Montevideo. Many places were glazed over with ice.

1948: A severe ice storm occurs over central Minnesota. At the St. Cloud Weather Office 1/2 inch of clear ice was measured. 65 telephone poles were down in St. Cloud.

_______________________________________________

Several systems will continue to impact the lower 48 as we head into the work week. First, a system moving eastward spreads snow, ice, and storms from the central to the eastern United States. Meanwhile, a couple of systems in the western United States continue to bring heavy snow (and blizzard conditions in the Sierra) as well as rain.

Heavy icing is possible across the Upper Midwest Sunday Night into Monday, with the potential of up to a quarter inch across central Minnesota into central Wisconsin and central Michigan. For Michigan, this ice will impact areas a little farther north than the round last week did - a round that still has ~275,000 power customers without power as of Sunday afternoon in southern Michigan.

Meanwhile, several feet of snow will continue to accumulate out west - especially in the Sierra, where blizzard conditions are expected with wind gusts to up at least 50 mph and locally to 70 mph.

As the system that is impacting the western United States during the first half of this week finally pushes eastward, we will see the severe weather threat increase across the Southern Plains and Deep South Thursday into Friday. There exists the threat of a severe weather outbreak from Texas to Alabama on Thursday, with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all possible.

_______________________________________________

This "Climate-Friendly" Fuel Comes With an Astronomical Cancer Risk

Surprising 'forbidden planet' discovered outside our solar system

More from CNN: "Astronomers have found an unusually large planet orbiting a small star, located about 280 light-years from Earth. The unexpected size of the newly discovered world, called TOI 5205b, has led researchers to call it the "forbidden planet." About the size of Jupiter, it was spotted by researchers using NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, or TESS. Jupiter is the largest planet in our solar system. The planet-hunting mission, launched in 2018, surveys the light of the nearest and brightest stars to spot dips in starlight, which suggests those stars have planets orbiting them. The TESS mission has found thousands of potential planets. The exoplanet orbits a red dwarf star called TOI-5205, which is about 40% the size and mass of our sun, and about 5,660 degrees Fahrenheit (3,127 degrees Celsius) in temperature compared with the sun's blazing average of 9,980 F (5,527 C)."

Canada's Emissions Up 2.8% in 2021 with Fossil Fuels Leading the Rise

More from The Energy Mix: "Canada's greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.8% in 2021, and fossil fuels accounted for more than half of the total, according to an "early estimate" released today by the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI). The Institute's analysis shows emissions continuing to "decouple" from GDP, so that each unit of economic activity produces less climate pollution. But the country's total greenhouse gas output increased by 19 million tonnes, to a total of 691 megatonnes, in a year when the economy was just beginning to restart after the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly 11 megatonnes—58% of the total—came from oil and gas extraction."

_______________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser