Director Ridley Scott's "The Martian" is being buffeted by some powerful media crosswinds as the sci-fi space saga starring Matt Damon prepares to blast off in its nationwide box-office debut Friday.
Tracking suggests that "The Martian" will open between $45 million and $50 million, though distributor 20th Century Fox sees it orbiting closer to $40 million. Either total would be light years ahead of its rivals and easily give it the No. 1 spot domestically.
The $110 million production will be in a hefty 3,826 theaters, and roughly two-thirds of those will offer 3D.
If the PG-13 thriller overperforms — a possibility given the massive coverage of NASA's discovery of water on Mars — it could challenge the record for an October opening set by "Gravity" with $55.7 million on this weekend in 2013.
Of course, Damon drew the wrong kind of attention in an interview in which he seemed to advise gay actors to keep their sexuality under wraps. Will the scientists' news or the actor's comments affect the box office? "The first could help," Fox distribution chief Chris Aronson told TheWrap Tuesday, "and the second won't hurt."
The only other wide opener is Lionsgate's R-rated drug war thriller "Sicario," starring Emily Blunt, Benecio del Toro and Josh Brolin. After earning $2.5 million in two weeks of limited release, director Denis Villeneuve's Oscar hopeful is projected to finish between $8 million and $10 million from roughly 2,5000 locations.