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Mark Craig's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread

The AFC North has a league-high 33 wins. Will the division add four more this weekend?

By Mark Craig

December 24, 2020 at 3:07PM

Jarvis Landry and the Browns are part of the NFL’s best division. (Corey Sipkin, Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

This will be a good week for the NFL's best division.

The AFC North heads into Week 16 with a league-high 33 wins, including the two-win Bengals' victory over the 11-win Steelers on Monday.

The guesses here say the true North will push its win total to 37:

The 11-3 Steelers will shake off their three-game losing streak with some help from Indy's Bad Philip Rivers, who has been largely absent behind Good Philip this season.
The 10-4 Browns, after thanking the football gods for the Jets ridding themselves of the urgency to avoid 0-16, will sweep New York in back-to-back weeks.
The 9-5 Ravens will take care of the Giants because they have Lamar and New York doesn't.
And the 3-10-1 Bengals will keep rolling by giving this guesstimator an Upset Special win as a 9-point underdog at Houston.

Last week's picks: 12-4; vs. the spread: 6-10.

Year to date: 145-79-1; 112-112-1

Vikings games: 8-6

Here are this week's picks:

FRIDAY

Vikings (+7) at Saints: Saints by 10

It's highly unlikely that Drew Brees will start as horribly as he did last week, when he returned from a month off because of 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung. Against the Chiefs, he started 0-for-6 with an interception and four straight three-and-outs. And yet he and the Saints still only lost by a field goal to the Chiefs. The Vikings, whose playoff chances are infinitesimal, won't have enough steam left in the engine to fend off a Saints team that's still fighting for a division title and the NFC's top seed. Score prediction: Saints 34, Vikings 24

SATURDAY

Buccaneers (-8½) at Lions: Buccaneers by 10

Let's see. How do we put this? The Lions are a mess — even by their lofty standards for lowliness. The head coach and GM are long gone. The interim head coach has fired a rogue coordinator who called for a fake punt on his own. Tom Brady and the Bucs will make quick work of these mutts.

49ers (+3½) at Cardinals: Cardinals by 6

Remember how big of an upset it was back in Week 1 when Arizona won at San Francisco? Well, a lot has changed. The 49ers' NFC championship-winning roster was decimated early on. The Cardinals were 5-2. Then they went 1-4. And now they've won two straight and are poised to grab the third wild-card berth.

Dolphins (-2½) at Raiders: Dolphins by 7

Once upon a time, the Raiders beat the Chiefs, started 6-3 and nearly beat the Chiefs a second time. Since then, they've been the Lions of the AFC. They're on a sloppy 1-4 slide. The Dolphins are 3-1 in their last four games. They've given up 3, 7 and 12 points in the wins.

SUNDAY

Broncos (+3) at Chargers: Chargers by 6

If there's one thing this guesstimator is certain of, it is this: Drew Lock will NOT repeat the feats of Nov. 1, when he threw three touchdown passes in the final 12 minutes to beat the Chargers 31-30. Give this week's shootout win to Justin Herbert.

Browns (-9½) at Jets: Browns by 10

Other than the Jets' players, no one is happier than the Browns that the Jets won their first game last week. The urgency to avoid becoming just the third 0-16 team ever is gone. A return to normalcy helps the Browns glide into their season finale against the Steelers at home.

Colts (+2½) at Steelers: Steelers by 3

This feels like a big leap of faith after watching how the Steelers lost their third game in a row in prime time to the lowly Bengals. But the gut instinct here is Rivers helps Pittsburgh off the mat at just the right time.

Bears (-7½) at Jaguars: Bears by 6

The Jets won. Then the Bengals won. Does this mean the Jaguars break a 13-game losing streak? Maybe. But the Bears are riding a wave of confidence built on a sound foundation of defense and running back David Montgomery. That should be enough to sneak past the Jags.

Panthers (+2½) at Washington: Washington by 3

You know whoever wins the NFC Least is going to wind up winning their playoff opener, right? Washington has the defense and the motivation to bounce the Panthers.

Giants (+11) at Ravens: Ravens by 14

Baltimore is desperate and Lamar Jackson is back in a groove. A bad combo for the Giants.

Falcons (+10½) at Chiefs: Chiefs by 14

Blah, blah, blah. Chiefs do whatever it takes to win.

Rams (+2) at Seahawks: Seahawks by 7

The Rams are a humiliated team after losing to the Jets. That makes them a dangerous team this week. But Seattle has won four of its last five while finally playing sound defense.

Eagles (-1½) at Cowboys: Cowboys by 3

Two teams at the bottom of their division and sporting a combined 9-18-1 record are still playing for a division title in Week 16. Ick.

Titans (3½) at Packers: Titans by 3

Apparently, Derrick Henry doesn't ever get hurt, injured or tired. And it's December and the playoffs are on the line. Good luck stopping him.

MONDAY

Bills (-7) at Patriots: Bills by 14

Buffalo has too much firepower to let Bill Belichick pull this prime-time upset.

UPSET SPECIAL

Bengals (+9) at Texans: Bengals 27, Texans 24

The Bengals won't have the same letdown as the Jets. Their mauling of the 11-win Steelers on Monday night could be the start of a sign of defensive life in Cincinnati. The Texans have lost three straight. Their 31^st-ranked defense should give Ryan Finley a chance to help the Bengals put together their first winning streak since Week 2 of the 2018 season.

Last week's upset special: Washington (+5) 20, Seahawks 17.

Result: Seahawks 20, Washington 15.

Upset special record: 5-10.

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).