Mark Craig's mock draft: A look at how the first round could go

The top talent is deep and evenly distributed. The quarterbacks are average, but you just know someone will overreach on at least two of them. Medical concerns are numerous. And last year's record number of first-round trades is expected to be topped on Thursday night.

In other words, this … could … get … ugly.

But, hey, when has failure ever docked a mock?

Doing many, many mock drafts seems to be the new way around the whiffs. Labeling them 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 or MyGoodnessWillThisEverEnd.0 increases the odds of being right eventually.

But we swing only once around these parts. So here goes. With the help of writers from other NFL cities with different general managers blowing the same old smoke, here's our 2013 NFL Mock Draft 1.only.

1. Kansas City: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

Fills a need (yawn) with a safe pick (zzzz) while making the Colts happy they stunk up the league a year earlier than the Chiefs.

In an effort to actually touch an opposing QB this season, the Jags make a risky pick by reaching on a boom-or-bust player.

3. Oakland: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

After dumping 38 of the 53 mutts he inherited just last year, GM Reggie McKenzie is poised for a Raider rarity: A solid first-round pick.

4. Philadelphia: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

Eagles new 3-4 defense needs new personnel to thrive. Michael Vick needs a young, athletic tackle to keep him alive.

Bad news: Lions are in the top 10 for the 10th time in 12 years. Good news: The "MM" on the GM's door stands for Martin Mayhew, not Matt Millen.

6. Cleveland: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

The Browns want Milliner to fall to them. Unfortunately, like most draft days and game days, they'll be disappointed. If they stay put, give them an outside 3-4 pass rusher.

7. Arizona: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

Oklahoma LT Lane Johnson is the tempting pick, but replacing RG Adam Snyder is the better move for a line that needs an upgrade to give the statue that is Carson Palmer a chance to succeed.

You know the old saying. When you have two quarterbacks named Tarvaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb, you really have no quarterbacks. New coach Doug Marrone, who coached Nassib at Syracuse, reaches big-time for a familiar face.

9. New York Jets: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

Jets QB Mark Sanchez can dream about adding the most explosive and versatile receiver in the draft. At least until he sees what happens at No. 13.

10. Tennessee: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

The Titans signed 12 free agents at a cost of $105 million. They deserve to get a top DT who will work (relatively) cheaply.

After gutting his offensive line, new GM Tom Telesco has his fingers and all 10 toes crossed in hopes we're right about Johnson falling this far. No worries, Tom. These things are only wrong about 78.1 percent of the time.

12. Miami: D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston

The Dolphins need a left tackle, but they're all gone. They like Hayden, even though he seems to be a reach this high.

13. New York Jets (From Tampa Bay): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

Sorry, Sanchise. Sanchez plus David Garrard plus Greg McElroy plus Tim Tebow equals further desperation.

The Panthers are comfortable with Lotulelei's heart condition and need a fleet-footed wide load in front of LB Luke Kuechly.

15. New Orleans: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

New Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs a pass rusher for a defense that gave up an NFL-record 7,042 yards a year ago.

16. St. Louis: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

The Rams have only three receivers who have caught an NFL regular-season pass. One fewer than the Vikings. Youch.

The Steelers have more needs than usual. They have their sights on Jarvis Jones, but if he's gone, they'll replace Heath Miller, who's 30 and coming off major knee surgery.

18. Dallas: Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

The Cowboys want to continue their offensive line overhaul, but they don't think Cooper will last this long. Surprise, Jerry. You have about a 21.9 percent chance that this pick will be right.

19. New York Giants: Alec Ogletree, MLB, Georgia

Ogletree comes with off-the-field baggage. But the Giants haven't selected a linebacker in the first round since Carl Banks in 1984.

The Bears need a middle linebacker, but they have to be tired of watching other teams beat their QB to a pouty pulp.

21. Cincinnati: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Good match leaves Bengals filling a need with the best safety in the draft.

22. St. Louis (From Washington): Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

Receiver isn't the Rams' only need on offense. Not with Steven Jackson now in Atlanta.

Is the three-down player worth the three-ring circus? Probably. Eventually, the circus always leaves town.

24. Indianapolis: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Colts GM Ryan Grigson spent $138 million on 10 free agents, so he has the flexibility to jump all over Rhodes if he falls this far.

25. Vikings (From Seattle): Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

Hunter has the size, long arms, top-end speed and a lot of other skills that could help the Vikings make a more informed decision on whether Christian Ponder is as good as they say he is or as bad as the fans say he is.

Concerned that they were pushovers in their playoff loss to the 49ers, the Packers replace Charles Woodson with a nasty hitter.

27. Houston: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

With Kevin Walter gone, finding a receiver opposite Andre Johnson is the top priority.

28. Denver: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

Executive VP John Elway says he still likes his D-line even after that fax machine fiasco. Yeah, right.

With only five picks, you know Bill Belichick will hunt down someone to trade with. The Chiefs would be wise to take all forms of communication away from new assistant Brad Childress.

30. Atlanta: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

The Falcons might look to trade up. But if Rhodes or Trufant slide, they could stand pat.

31. San Francisco: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Justin Smith is 34 and his body started to break down late last year. If Richardson is still on the board — a big if — the 49ers would end up with great value here.