Mark Craig's Gameday Insider: A logjam heading south

While the Vikings weigh keep-or-trade scenarios, the Colts still lead the three-team freefall for Andrew Luck.

December 24, 2011 at 2:05PM
Indianapolis Colts' Reggie Wayne (87)reacts with teammates after making the game winning catch against Houston Texans' Kareem Jackson during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Thursday, Dec. 22, 2011, in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis Colts' Reggie Wayne (87)reacts with teammates after making the game winning catch against Houston Texans' Kareem Jackson during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Thursday, Dec. 22, 2011, in Indianapolis. (Associated Press - Ap/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Nothing has gone right for the Vikings this season.

Donovan McNabb as a one-year bridge to the Ponder era? Wrong.

Bernard Berrian, play-action deep threat? Wrong.

The Big Three of Antoine Winfield, Cedric Griffin and Chris Cook? Wrong, really wrong and holy-cow wrong.

Things have gone so wrong that even right will feel wrong when the Vikings beat the Redskins in Washington on Saturday.

C'mon, can't you feel it? With the No. 1 overall draft pick inching into their grasp, can't you just feel the wrong-way Vikings beating the Redskins, especially now that the Colts have strung together two victories heading into a winnable season finale at Jacksonville?

While the Packers, 49ers, Patriots and Steelers throw haymakers at the top of the league, the Vikings, Colts and Rams have quite the pillow fight going on in the basement. The Vikings and Rams are 2-12, while the Colts are 2-13 following Thursday night's upset of the Texans.

In the case of ties, draft selection is based on an inverted strength of schedule. The weaker the schedule, the better the pick.

Strength of schedule changes from week to week based on what everyone's opponents do that particular week. So in the case of a tie, we won't know how this all shakes out until after all the games are played.

However, the Colts still have quite the lead with their strength of schedule at .531 (120-106). All Indianapolis has to do now is lose focus, get on different pages and STOP WINNING!

The Vikings are No. 2 with their strength of schedule at .567 (127-97). The Rams are No. 3 with their strength of schedule at .589 (132-92). Everyone else has at least four victories.

Losing two more won't be easy, even for one of the worst teams in Vikings history. After their trip to Washington, the Vikings finish the season at home against a lifeless Bears team that's lost four in a row.

The Rams, meanwhile, have a much easier route to 2-14, with games at Pittsburgh and home against the 49ers. The Colts finish up against a Jaguars team that's 4-10 and has lost four of its past five.

The prize to the loser of this pillow fight is the choice of Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck or the value of that pick to another team that wants Luck. Experts have suggested Luck might be worth at least three first-round picks and two second-round picks to quarterback-starved teams such as the Dolphins, Redskins and Seahawks.

The Colts would take Luck. It would capitalize on a well-placed awful season, but it also would be awkward to have Peyton Manning's successor on the roster while Manning possibly returns from a neck injury and plays throughout the life of Luck's rookie contact.

The Rams have 2010 No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford. So they obviously would trade the pick and build around Bradford.

The Vikings could go either way. Luck probably has a better future than Christian Ponder, this year's 12th overall pick. But if any team knows the franchise-changing value that comes with trading for three No. 1s and two No. 2s, it would be the Vikings.

In 1989, the Vikings traded three No. 1s and three No. 2s to the Cowboys. The Vikings got Herschel Walker. The Cowboys got the building blocks for their dynasty of the 1990s.

If visions of multiple first- and second-round picks are now dancing in your purple-clad head, be prepared, folks. During a season that's seen nothing go right so far, it would be only fitting that a long-awaited win would also feel oh so wrong.

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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