March Ends Like A Lion With Rain And Snowstorm
Forecast loop from 7 PM Thursday Night to 7 AM Saturday.
Thursday Night:
- In the metro and southward: Rain will mostly fall across these areas with a few occasional thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong out in southwestern Minnesota with hail the main threat.
- Icing Corridor Across Western/Central Minnesota: A band of mixed precipitation and freezing rain will set up that could bring up to a quarter inch of ice for some. This is generally expected through Friday morning.
- Northern Minnesota Snow. Head north of that icing band and precipitation will generally be in the form of snow for northern Minnesota.
Friday: While there may be a little lull in precipitation Friday morning, precipitation will quickly get going again heading toward the midday hours.
- Again, precipitation could be mostly rain during the daytime hours in the metro (including a thunder potential), with more of a changeover to a mix and then quickly snow as we head toward sunset and the overnight hours. I don't think we can rule out some thundersnow overnight either, as snow into the overnight hours will be heavy with 1"+ per hour rates possible.
- I'm a little concerned that we could still see some mixed precipitation or icing across central Minnesota during the daytime hours before enough cold air rushes in to change it to all snow later in the afternoon.
- A few strong storms will be possible in southeastern Minnesota.
A general band of 1-5" of snow is expected across northern Minnesota through early Friday morning with the first round of precipitation - with the heaviest falling along portions of the North Shore, including Duluth. With the second round of snow Friday into Friday Night. a band of at least 2-6" is expected to set up across central and southern Minnesota. Isolated 8" amounts are possible, especially in far western Minnesota as well as from the metro eastward into western Wisconsin. This will be a heavy, wet snow.
At least 0.1" to 0.2" of icing could fall across portions of western and central Minnesota through Thursday Night. These totals above are for the entire storm; while I can't rule out some additional icing tomorrow, most of this will fall through Friday morning as colder air should start to take over for the second round tomorrow. This amount of icing will certainly cause slick surfaces.
Not only are we tracking that heavy snow later Friday into Friday night, but winds will also be increasing across the region. Wind gusts up to 50 mph in spots will be possible at times, causing reduced visibility (including whiteout/blizzard conditions) due to blowing snow. Drifting snow will also be a possibility. Some of the strongest winds are expected during the evening and overnight hours.
As of Thursday evening, we continue to watch Winter Weather Advisories through Friday morning for the potential of icing (central Minnesota) and snow (northern Minnesota). Winter Storm Watches are in place from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning for the second round of snow and, in some locations, blizzard conditions. Blizzard Warnings, though, have already been issued for parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota.
As mentioned, a few strong storms will be possible in southeastern Minnesota Friday, which is where we have a Slight Risk of severe weather. Hail, strong winds, and maybe an isolated tornado will be possible - but there will be a greater threat to the south for severe weather.
