Mainly Dry Friday, But There Are Several Rain Chances In The Extended Outlook

I just wrapped up a week-long trek across northern Minnesota with my wife Rebecca and mother-in-law visiting several state parks in the process and getting rained on during one of the hikes last Saturday. As we were heading home yesterday we stopped at Itasca State Park where Rebecca snapped this picture from close to the top of the fire tower with my camera (my hands were a little too clammy - me and heights aren't the best of friends). As of Wednesday, Itasca did report 75-100% color, but I can definitely say there were a lot of trees that had been stripped of their leaves. Oh, and there is/was a small fire burning in the park.

A lot of the northern half of Minnesota is either at or past peak now according to the local state parks, but of course, you might still be able to find some good color in those areas! Most locations in southern Minnesota are between 25-75% color. You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.

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We saw some improvement across the state in the latest Drought Monitor update which was released on Thursday. Now 9.8% is completely free of drought or abnormally dry conditions, up 3.3% week-to-week. The biggest improvement was in the D1 Moderate Drought category, which went from 76.2% last week to 67% this week.

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Ready for the last day of the week? A few showers could remain across the metro during the early morning hours Friday with slowly decreasing cloud cover throughout the day - overall we'll call the day partly sunny, but skies will likely be less than 50% covered with clouds by the late afternoon hours. Morning temperatures will be in the low 60s with highs climbing into the mid 70s - still quite above average for the beginning of October.

The better chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day will be across northern and potentially western Minnesota as an area of low pressure slowly approaches. Highs will range from the 60s in the Arrowhead to around 80F in southwestern portions of the state.

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As an area of low pressure forms across the eastern Dakotas and moves across northern Minnesota this weekend we will have to watch the chance of showers and thunderstorms for the metro. The best chance will be during the Saturday Night timeframe, with a 20% chance both Saturday and Sunday during the daytime hours. This developing system will bring in warm air for Saturday, with potentially our last shot at 80F for the year. Some "fun" notes: the average last 80F day over the past 30-years is October 1st, and the last 80F day last year was on October 9th. Cooler air moves in behind the system as we head into Sunday, with temperatures in the upper 60s or low 70s.

A few storms Saturday across western Minnesota (essentially St. Cloud westward) could be strong. Hail and wind will be the main threats.

The heaviest rain through Monday morning will be across portions of northwestern Minnesota - in areas that could really use the rain, as shown by the Drought Monitor. Some areas could see over 2" of rain fall.

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This is expected total rainfall through next Thursday morning. A widespread 1-3" of rain could fall across the state as we head through the next week - the heaviest falling across northern Minnesota.

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Supersized Boating Season This Year?
By Paul Douglas

Maybe I shouldn't be surprised. Some adventurous Minnesotans wear shorts in January, to thumb their collective noses at Old Man Winter. "Subzero? No problem. You can't feel any colder than numb!" is a familiar refrain.

I see winter denial all around me now. Friends are booking tee times in late October. Some avid boaters are determined to be the last ones standing, keeping docks and boats in the water until the bitter end. Boating in November? Possible - but I wouldn't bet on it.

A pop up T-shower is possible today with heavier, more widespread T-storms late Saturday and Saturday night. Showers spill into a part of Sunday, and weather models spin up more (potentially heavy) rain late Monday, again late Wednesday.

The pattern is undoubtedly trending wetter over time. Our first flakes are delayed a week or 2, but they're coming.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Some sun, stray T-storm. Wake up 61. High 74. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Breezy with a few leftover showers. Wake up 63. High 73. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 15-25 mph.

MONDAY: Some AM sun, rain arrives late PM. Wake up 54. High 68. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, a dry sky. Wake up 55. High 65. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Dry start, rain arrives late. Wake up 56. High 69. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind E 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Showers taper, skies brighten. Wake up 57. High 70. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 8th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 19 minutes, and 46 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight? October 15th (10 hours, 58 minutes, and 23 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
October 8th

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Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday with a couple of areas of low pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to the Southeastern United States. An area of low pressure off the Carolina coast will bring some heavier rain and gusty winds to the region, but tropical development is not expected. Rain, storms, and some mixed-in snow at higher elevations will be possible from Montana into Southern California.

We're still watching more heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, with rainfall amounts over 3" for some locations by Saturday evening. Heavier rain will also be possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Northern Plains, and north of Salt Lake City. Meanwhile, several inches of snow will fall across portions of the central/northern Rockies.

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The king tides are coming this week

As Mississippi River Flooding Gets Worse, 100 Mayors Try a New Fix

More from the Wall Street Journal: "Mike Sertle clambered up a steep bank of the Big Muddy River in southern Illinois, whacked thick undergrowth with an oar to clear a path and after a 10-minute hike through the remote forest arrived at his destination: a low berm that could be a key to fighting floods along the Mississippi River. Floodwaters can spill over and get held behind the freshly made earthwork, about 4 feet high, 12 feet wide and 300 yards long, helping to reduce flooding downstream, while also providing new habitat for wildlife, said Mr. Sertle, big rivers biologist with Ducks Unlimited. The hunter-supported conservation group this year formalized a partnership with a group representing some 100 mayors along the Mississippi. Their goal is to restore thousands of acres of wetlands at key points along the river to hold floodwaters and reduce by 10% the chances that a future, higher flood will result in levees being overtopped."

Climate Scientists Created a SWAT Team for Weather Disasters

More from Bloomberg Green: "When weather disaster strikes, observers near and far ask the same question: Climate change—is it or isn't it? The simplest answer, yes, lacks specificity. All weather is a joint human-nature venture, because we've made the atmosphere hotter than it's been in 125,000 years. Disasters are nothing new. Assigning blame for them is. A breakthrough out of the U.K. is providing better, more nuanced answers faster with powerful implications for citizens, first responders, and the media. Friederike Otto is at the heart of it. Otto is a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-leader of World Weather Attribution, a research collaboration that quickly analyzes if or how climate change has made extreme weather somehow worse—more intense, more likely, or deadlier. It's a small, nimble, and—because of a current lack of funding—mostly volunteer effort assembled to bust science out of the academic quad and let a curious public know when climate change affects them in the most direct and personal way. It's also beginning to help courts answer the more pointed question: Who, specifically, is responsible?"

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- D.J. Kayser