Lupit to Miss Philippines But Still Cause Flooding

The worst impact of Typhoon Lupit now looks set to miss the storm-ravagednorth of the Philippines. Lupit is expected to veer northward and thus spareLuzon the worst of its destructive wind, though flooding rain and locallydamaging winds are still expected over northern Luzon.Thursday morning, EDT, the center of Lupit was 350 miles northeast of Manilawith a westerly drift at 6 mph. Highest sustained winds were near 75 mph --still those of a Category 1 storm, yet far below last weekend's Category-4winds of then-Super Typhoon Lupit.

Lupit will continue to drift to the north and east of Luzon Island over thePhilippine Sea over the next day or two as the area of high pressure that hasbeen steering Lupit has weakened. This area of high pressure is expected toregain strength over the weekend and will cause Lupit to veer northeastward andthus away from the Philippines, rather than making a potentially devastatingwestward transit of northern Luzon.

Were Lupit to transit northern Luzon from east to west, it would unleashextreme flooding rainfall in some of the same areas that were inundated byTyphoon Parma (also known as Pepeng to Filipinos) earlier in the month. Eventhe more likely northward-veering track would still allow some flooding rain toreach far-northern Luzon, with local amounts of 10 inches or more possible.

The Philippines have had their share of direct hits from typhoons this season.

Typhoons Ketsana and Parma struck the islands spanning late September into thefirst part of October, leaving more than 850 dead and dozens still missing.

Ketsana, known to Filipinos as Ondoy, dropped feet of rain on parts of thePhilippines. Much of Manila, the capital of the nation, was underwaterfollowing the storm as over 16 inches of rain fell in the city. Parma targetedfishing villages and farmers farther north on the island of Luzon, where 55,000homes were destroyed.

Diseases, including leptospirosis and dengue fever, bred by contaminatedfloodwaters continue to take their toll on the Filipino population. To makematters worse, only a handful of health clinics remained intact after theflooding.

While the northern Philippines are spared from the brunt of Lupit, Japan'sRyukyu Islands may not be so lucky this weekend. Lupit's path is expected topass very near the Islands, producing upwards of 20 inches of rain and locallydestructive winds.