Lightning, Heavy Rain, Turbulence Possible Causes of Flight 447 Incident

As search and rescue operations are under way to locate the Air Franceaircraft suspected to have crashed off the coast of Brazil, AccuWeather.commeteorologists are investigating the weather patterns in the area of themissing plane during and prior to the suspected time of the incident Sundayevening.Speculation centers around weather and electrical problems as reported byAir France. At the time of apparent disappearance, thunderstorms along theflight path were probably towering to a height of over 40,000 feet. Given thebreadth of the storms on the satellite images, it was probably tough for thepilots to avoid the storms. Flight AF 447 was reported to be flying at 35,000feet, which would mean the craft would have most likely flown through or arounda storm, especially one around 40,000 feet in the air.

Despite the presence of several storms in the area Sunday evening, the onlylightning detected along the flight path was in one storm near Sao Luis,Brazil. There was a cluster of storms north of the Brazilian island of Fernandode Noronha and along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the belt of lowpressure that surrounds the Earth at the equator. However, these storms werefree of any lightning strikes.

Tropical thunderstorms and the lightning patterns generated by them aredifferent from storms that typically occur over the United States. Studies haveshown that the top region of tropical thunderstorms is highly charged and moreconducive to lightning, which indicates that an airplane flying near the top ofa tropical thunderstorm could be more susceptible to a lightning strike.

Tropical thunderstorms are also notorious for producing frequentcloud-to-cloud, as well as cloud-to-air lightning.

Another possibilities being explored include sudden, severe turbulenceproduced by strong thunderstorms and ingestion of heavy rain into one or bothof the aircraft's engines. The aircraft may have first flown through turbulentareas near Sao Luis, and then later north of Fernando de Noronha.

Thunderstorms northeast of Fernando De Noronha and southwest of the Cape VerdeIslands were producing pockets of very heavy rain.

In the meantime, the search and rescue operation is under way around theBrazilian island of Fernando de Noronha. That island lies just offshore ofBrazil's easternmost point. The ocean depth north and east of that island runs9,000 feet to 15,000 feet. Water temperature this time of year ranges from theupper 70s to low 80s.

Air France officials have stated the aircraft was a newer plane and waspiloted by experienced crewmembers. According to aviation experts on CNN.com,the Airbus 330-200 is widely used for transatlantic flights and is themanufacturer's newest twin-jet aircraft. The model has only one documentedincident involving a crash, which occurred during a test flight prior to themodel going into service.

The search area is massive, encompassing the area from off of the northeastcoast of Brazil to the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa. Thisarea is multiple times the size of the state of Texas.