WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible.

WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin.

WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event. The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or more inches of snow could fall.

Here's the weather outlook through early next week, which shows a clipper system moving across the northern part of the state. Snowfall amounts will be greater across the northern part of the state.

Heavy and impactful snowfall is expected this week across much of central Minnesota. There is a greater than 80% chance of exceeding warning criteria in the purple color below.

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows milder weather lingering through Monday with highs warming into the mid 30s. It gets colder through the rest of the week with highs in the 10s and 20s as a major disruptive storm system moves through the region. We'll gradually warm into the 20s and 30s this weekend and early next week.

As of Saturday, February 18th, the MSP Airport still had 4" of snow on the ground, which is much lower than it was earlier this week before Tuesday's rain. There is still nearly 1ft to 2ft of snow across parts of northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan.

Taking a look at snowfall since July 1st, many locations have seen above average amounts so far this season, but folks from near Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and towards Duluth are nearly 15" to 25" above average this month. 55.6" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport, which is the 11th snowiest start to any season on record.

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, February 20th will be mild once again with highs warming into the mid/upper 30s. We'll also have breezy winds as a clipper system pushes through the state with a wintry mix possible. There could be a minor coating of snow in the Twin Cities, but the heaviest will be found across the northern half of the state.

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Monday shows temps starting in the low 20s, but will warm into the mid/upper 30s. South to southwesterly winds will be quite strong with gusts approaching 30mph in the afternoon. A light wintry mix will be possible with a minor coating of snow possible through the day.

It'll be a little chilly Monday morning with feels like temps in the lower teens, but feels like temps will be in the mid 20s in the afternoon.

Weather conditions will be very active in the Central US this week with a clipper system moving through northern Minnesota on Monday. The bigger story will be the large and impactful storm system PM Tuesday to PM Thursday across the Midwest. Areas of very heavy snow and wind will be possible, which will likely cause major travel issues this week.

After a very mild weekend, temps will still be mild on Monday with highs warming into the mid/upper 30s. The rest of the week will active with heavy snow and strong winds and colder temperatures. Readings later this week will only warm into the 10s, which will be nearly -15F below average for mid/late February.

The week ahead will be quite busy with several snow chances. A clipper system moves through Monday with a wintry mix in the Twin Cities and breezy winds. Late Tuesday into AM Wednesday our first round of accumulating snow arrives, but the heavier band arrives PM Wednesday into Thursday. Total accumulations could exceed 12" in the metro with strong winds and blowing snow. It'll be a colder end of week with temps only warming into the 10s, which will be much cooler than average.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much the Western US and across the Midwest/Great Lakes.

Storms This Week May Spark Extreme Snow Amounts
By Paul Douglas

I'm running out of snowflake symbols for my weather maps. First world problem.

It was too mild, too dry and too quiet for too long, and a restless, woozy Old Man Winter is about to awaken from hibernation and remind us who's boss.

We are tracking 2 weather systems: a plowable snowfall from Tuesday PM into early Wednesday, and then a second, potentially crippling storm Wednesday night into Thursday. Pick a weather model. How much snow would you like to shovel? 12"? 20"? The European model hints at some 30" totals by Friday close to home, and we can't rule out that scenario. It's always perilous trying to predict where the axis of heaviest snow will set up 3 days in advance.

This will be a dangerous week for travel, especially central and southern MN and WI.

MONDAY: Slushy coating. Winds: W 15-30. High: 35.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy & breezy. Winds: WNW 15-30. Low: 12.

TUESDAY: Snow returns. 4-7" PM hours. Winds: E 7-12. High: 22.

WEDNESDAY: Snow tapers a bit - slow travel. Winds: NE 15-30. Wake-up: 19. High: 21.

FRIDAY: Peeks of sun, coldest day. Winds: S 3-8. Wake-up: -5. High: 10.

SATURDAY: Patchy clouds, quiet. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 7 High: 21.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, feeling better. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 13. High: 32.

February 20th

1981: Due to the long spell of warm weather in the 60s, a farmer near Le Center is plowing some alfalfa ground.

Average High: 30F (Record: 57F set in 1981)

Average Low: 15F (Record: -20F set in 1889)

Record Rainfall: 0.85" set in 2011

Record Snowfall: 11.8" set in 2011

February 20th

Sunset: 5:47pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 42 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 00 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 hour & 4 minutes

1.0 Day Since New Moon

The weather outlook for Monday will still be somewhat quiet across much of the nation. We'll see areas of snow across the northern tier of the nation on Monday, but things really get interesting Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Areas of snow will develop across the northern tier of the nation on Monday with a much larger storm developing Tuesday through Thursday. This midweek storm will be responsible for heavy snow, strong winds and even some severe weather.

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts across the Ohio Valley this week with showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe. The Midwest could see a heap of snow, while heavy precipitation will also be possible across parts of the Western US.

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US. Parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes could be dealing with significant snowfall next week. Stay tuned...

"THE first thing I did was turn off the lights. Then I unplugged everything. On reflection, I reconnected my fridge. Next, I made a list of all the other ways I consume energy. Gas-powered boilers heat my apartment and water. I cook on a gas stove. I take the New York City subway to work. For longer trips, I drive or hail a ride, and I fly. Then there's the fridge, washing machine and dryer, elevators, a computer, phone, even my toothbrush. I add to the list anything I buy that requires energy to make and transport. Plus the food I consume or throw away. Nearly everything I do requires energy. Energy is a hot topic right now. Rocketing fuel prices precipitated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the transition to renewable sources to limit global warming have focused people and governments on reducing consumption. With this in mind, I wanted to see whether I could drastically cut my energy use. I had read that, in the 1990s, Swiss researchers calculated that just 2000 watts per person would be enough for everyone to live sustainably and still have a good quality of life. So that became my target. This was the first day of a personal, month-long "2000-watt challenge"."

"It was an engineering problem that had bugged Zhibin Yu for years — but now he had the perfect chance to fix it. Stuck at home during the first UK lockdown of the Covid-19 pandemic, the thermal engineer suddenly had all the time he needed to refine the efficiency of heat pumps: electrical devices that, as their name implies, move heat from the outdoors into people's homes. The pumps are much more efficient than gas heaters, but standard models that absorb heat from the air are prone to icing up, which greatly reduces their effectiveness. Yu, who works at the University of Glasgow, UK, pondered the problem for weeks. He read paper after paper. And then he had an idea. Most heat pumps waste some of the heat that they generate — and if he could capture that waste heat and divert it, he realized, that could solve the defrosting issue and boost the pumps' overall performance. "I suddenly found a solution to recover the heat," he recalls. "That was really an amazing moment."

See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:

"Over the past century, the Earth's average temperature has swiftly increased by about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). The evidence is hard to dispute. It comes from thermometers and other sensors around the world. But what about the thousands of years before the Industrial Revolution, before thermometers, and before humans warmed the climate by releasing heat-trapping carbon dioxide from fossil fuels? Back then, was Earth's temperature warming or cooling? Even though scientists know more about the most recent 6,000 years than any other multimillennial interval, studies on this long-term global temperature trend have come to contrasting conclusions. To try to resolve the difference, we conducted a comprehensive, global-scale assessment of the existing evidence, including both natural archives, like tree rings and seafloor sediments, and climate models. Our results, published Feb. 15, 2023, suggest ways to improve climate forecasting to avoid missing some important slow-moving, naturally occurring climate feedbacks."

See more from The Conversation HERE: