Light snow chances, then an Arctic slap Late Week

Partly sunny skies give way to a light snow dusting tomorrow. A more impressive clipper arrives Thursday night with an inch or two of wind-whipped snow & falling temps. The weekend ahead looks plenty cold. Bundle up! Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

January 24, 2023 at 3:32AM

A Siberian Slap This Weekend

Here's the 850mb temperature anomaly through the end of January early next week. Temps should still be fairly mild through midweek, but a fast moving clipper will open the floodgates for some pretty cold weather this weekend into early next week. This will be some of the coldest air we've had since just before Christmas. Daytime highs may only warm into the single digits with overnight lows in the subzero range once again. It'll be plenty cold, so bundle up!

850mb Temp Anomaly Through February 1st (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

Here's the NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. Note that temps will still be fairly mild through the week before some pretty chilly air arrives late Friday into the weekend. This colder than average weather may stick around into the early part of February with overnight lows in the subzero range once again.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Light Snow Coatings This Week

The weather outlook shows a couple of clipper systems moving through the region this week. We'll see a chance of light snow on Wednesday and a better chance of snow Thursday night into Friday. The secondary clipper will be a little more pronounced with stronger winds and much colder temperatures pouring in on the backside of the system PM Friday into the weekend. Friday could warrant some blowing snow potential across parts of the state with gusts that could be around 20mph to 30mph, especially in the southwestern part of the state.

Weather Outlook Through PM Thursday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential Through PM Friday

According to the ECMWF (European model), there is a chance for accumulating snow this week, mainly along and north of the Minnesota River Valley and especially north of the I-94 corridor. Some locations across the northern part of the state could see 3" to 6" total tallies, which would be enough to shovel and plow. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Snowfall Potential Through Friday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities January Summary

The first 21 days of January have been very warm and snowy. The average temperature is nearly +8F above average, which is good enough for the 7th warmest start to any January on record. We've also seen nearly 19" of snow, which is nearly 12" above average and good enough for the 7th snowiest start to any January on record.

Twin Cities January Weather Summary (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

7th Wettest January on Record

The Twin Cities has also seen more than 2" of liquid this January, which is the 7th wettest on record so far.

January Precipitation (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

As of Sunday, January 22nd, the MSP Airport recorded 10" of snow on the ground. Interestingly, this tied for the 18th greatest snow depth on record for January 22nd!

Snow Depth (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

January Snowfall

Here's how much snow has fallen across the region so far this month. More than a foot of snow has fallen from Sioux Falls, to the Twin Cities and St. Cloud, which is nearly +10.0" above average! The MSP Airport has seen nearly 19" of snow this month, which is the 7th snowiest start to any January on record (through January 22nd).

January Snowfall (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
January Snowfall Departure From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Seasonal Snowfall

Taking a look at snowfall since July 1st, many locations have seen above average amounts so far this season, but folks from near Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and towards Duluth are nearly 20" to 30" above average through January 21st. 52.5" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport, which is the 4th snowiest start to any season on record.

Seasonal Snowfall (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, January 24th shows above average temperatures continuing with a high temp approaching 30F by the afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with winds turning more southerly through the day.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will generally warm into the 20s across much of the region, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Skies will also stay mostly cloudy with light snow chances arriving late in the day from the northwest.

Tuesday Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Tuesday shows temps starting in the mid teens in the morning with highs warming to around 30F in the afternoon. Skies will generally be partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Winds will be turning more southerly through the day around 5mph to 10mph, so not terribly breezy.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps on Tuesday will hover around the 10s and lower 20s throughout much of the day. Enjoy the somewhat milder air for now because it is going to get much colder by the weekend ahead.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions will remain active across the US over the next several days. A few storm systems will develop in the Southern US and lift northeast with areas of showers and storms across the Southern US with areas of snow farther north.

Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows fairly mild temps through midweek. A clipper system will scoot through the region on Friday with snow and milder temps in the morning and tumbling temps in the afternoon. The weekend looks much colder with highs falling to well below average levels.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

Quiet weather lingers through Tuesday, but gets a little more interesting during the second half of the week. Light snow showers arrives Wednesday with a better chance of snow Thursday night into AM Friday. It'll then get quite cold this weekend and into early next week with highs trending well below average. It is going to be plenty cold around here for quite a few days. Bundle up!

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much Midwest and West Coast by the end of the month and into early February. Warmer than average temperatures will be in place across the Southeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the nation and once again across the Western US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Light snow chances, then an Arctic slap Late Week
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

A recent study published by the journal Nature, suggested that ice cores have revealed some of the coldest parts of Greenland have recently experienced the warmest temperatures in nearly 1,000 years. The study also found that there is a clear signal of human-caused warming in the region, which has cause more rapid melting of the ice sheet over the last several years. Interestingly, a research station located on one of the highest points in Greenland, recorded rain for the first time ever in August of 2021. This is a region that is so cold, it typically sees snow.

Closer to home, January 2022 is running nearly 8 degrees above average in the Twin Cities and one of the top 10 warmest starts to any year on record. Nearly 20 inches of snow has fallen at MSP making it the 7th snowiest start to any year on record as well.

Partly sunny skies give way to a light snow dusting tomorrow. A more impressive clipper arrives Thursday night with an inch or two of wind-whipped snow & falling temps. The weekend ahead looks plenty cold. Bundle up!

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Still gray. Peeks of sun. Winds: SSE 5-10. High: 28.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light snow. Winds: S 5. Low: 22.

WEDNESDAY: Light snow coating possible. Winds: NNW 7-12. High: 29.

THURSDAY: Lingering clouds. Clipper overnight. Winds: WSW 8-13. Wake-up: 14. High: 20.

FRIDAY: AM snow fades. Blustery PM winds. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 13. High: 31.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and colder. Winds: NNW 10-15. Wake-up: 3. High: 10.

SUNDAY: There's the January I remember. Cold. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: -5. High: 4.

MONDAY: Icy winds. Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: WSW 10-15. Wake-up: -9. High: 5.

This Day in Weather History

January 24th

1968: A rare severe thunderstorm hits the Twin Cities and leaves a coating of ice an inch thick. 10 thousand homes were without power.

1950: An ice storm develops over southwest Minnesota. Ice on telephone wires from 1/3 to 1.5 inches. Bismarck, North Dakota had 17 inches of snow. A Northern Pacific passenger train derailed at Detroit Lakes with no injuries.

1925: A solar eclipse is seen across northern Minnesota during the morning. The Duluth Herald reported that chickens were 'puzzled by the dark morning' and didn't leave their roosts.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

January 24th

Average High: 23F (Record: 57F set in 1981)

Average Low: 8F (Record: -33F set in 1904)

Record Rainfall: 1.21" set in 1967

Record Snowfall: 6.0" set in 1972

Twin Cities Almanac For January 24th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

January 24th

Sunrise: 7:40am

Sunset: 5:09pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 29 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 15 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 42 minutes

Moon Phase for January 24th at Midnight

3.4 Days Since New Moon

Moon Phase For January 24th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Tuesday

Temperatures from the Midwest to the Northeast will remain above average on Tuesday, but will be quite a bit colder than average across the Central and Southern Plains and into the Southwest.

National Weather Outlook on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Highs From Average/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows a fairly intense area of low pressure developing in the Southern US with widely scattered showers and storms, some of which will be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Areas of heavy snow will develop on the northern end of this storm with accumulating snow likely from the Texas Panhandle to the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through midweek will be quite active as a storm system develops in the Southern US and lifts into the Northeast. Widespread showers and storms will develop in the Southern US with heavy rainfall, while heavy snow will push through the Central US.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Weather Likely on Tuesday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday in orange below. Large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

Severe Threat Tuesday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the Gulf Coast States and into the Eastern US. The Midwest will see some light precipitation, which will fall in the form of snow, while California will begin seeing some precipitation potential once again.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be decent snowfall potential in the across parts of the Central US into the Northeastern US.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Here's Why Your iPhone's Weather App Is Wrong So Often"

"Have you ever made plans based on weather reports, only to be rained out when the day in question arrives? You're not alone. The forecast can be extremely fickle. Weather is an unpredictable beast that man can't truly, accurately predict. Folks are still scratching their heads about how you can feel wintry conditions and summer-like weather within the span of a few days, even in relatively consistent climates. Additionally, with the effects of global warming catching up to us, weather forecasts feel more and more like wishful stabs in the dark."

"California Deluge: What It Takes To Survive"

"Angry weather systems, raging waterways, flooded growing fields, nine atmospheric rivers and a bomb cyclone – how much can the state of California take in less than four weeks? Deaths, infrastructure destruction and crop losses are the very definition of a federal disaster. Visiting the heavily agricultural Central Coast of the state this week, just three days after the most recent torrent ended, President Biden noted that the latest federal rescue funds and initiatives are only part of the bill for climate destruction. Through the wildfires, landslides, droughts, and storms of his administration alone, the federal government has spent $9 billion in California, and it's far from over. Over a four-week stretch that started just after Christmas, the National Weather Service calculated that more than eleven inches of precipitation, on average, fell in California. More than eighteen inches fell in Oakland and, 235 miles north of San Francisco, about 48 inches. Extreme and exceptional drought classifications have been eliminated statewide, but lesser degrees of drought persist."

"How to See the 'Green Comet' Everyone's Talking About"

"Deep in the Stone Age, when Neanderthals still lived alongside Homo sapiens, our ancestors might have been agog at a green light in the night sky. Now, that light—C/2022 E3 (ZTF) (more familiarly, the Green Comet)—is back. The Green Comet's highly elliptical orbit means it will take a long time for it to swing past Earth again—about 50,000 years, to be specific. And that's if it repeats its 50,000-year sojourn, which it may not. Astronomers discovered the comet in March 2022 using the Samuel Oschin robotic telescope at the Zwicky Transient Facility. It passed perihelion (when it is closest to the Sun) on January 12. Observers in the U.S. can see the comet now through early February, potentially with the naked eye if you're in a dark viewing area, but your chances will be better using binoculars or a telescope. The best time to see the comet is in the predawn hours, according to NASA."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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