Increasingly Soggier Days Ahead

Things are looking increasingly soggier this week with the best chance of more widespread rains across the northern half of the state through Midweek. Showers and storms become more likely across the southern half of the state later in the week, which may help ease the drought. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

August 16, 2022 at 2:30AM
Sunset on Lake Vermillion (@SusanMarmot/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

August Temps in Minneapolis

We're halfway through the month of August and temperatures are running pretty close to average in Minneapolis. The warmest day was 95F on the 2nd, which tied for the 5th warmest day of 2022 so far this year. The coolest morning low was on the 8th at 56F.

August Temps in Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

August Precipitation in Minneapolis

Through the first half of the month, Minneapolis is actually running above average for precipitation. The wettest day of the month was on the 12th, when 0.95" of rain fell, which interestingly was the 2nd wettest day of the year so far.

August Precipitation in Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

9th Driest Summer on Record at MSP

Believe it or not, but there are only 2.5 weeks of meteorological summer left and so far, it has been the 9th driest June 1st - August 15th on record at MSP. The metro is nearly 6" below average precipitation for the summer so far, while St. Cloud is nearly 1" above average this summer. Below are the driest June 1st - August 15th on record at the Minneapolis Airport

Driest June 1st - August 15th on Record at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Summer Precipitation

Here's how much rain has fallen across the region so far this summer (since June 1st). Interestingly, Minneapolis has seen some of the lowest amount of rain totals along with Baudette. Meanwhile, Rochester, Madison and Mason City have seen more than 1 foot of rain this summer.

Rainfall So Far This Summer (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Rain Departure From Average This Summer (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook from AM Tuesday to AM Monday. Weather conditions will be a little unsettled in a few spots around the Upper Midwest through the rest of the week with spotty showers and T-storms. It looks like there is a better chance for more widespread showers & storms later this week, especially Friday & Saturday.

Weather Outlook From AM Tuesday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

The extended precipitation outlook through the week and weekend ahead shows areas of heavier rainfall across the northern part of the state with some +1" tallies possible. Lighter rain amounts will be found across the southern half of the state, but still up to 0.5" can't be ruled out.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota Drought Update

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Severe drought decreased a little from nearly 4% last week to less than 3% this week. Moderate drought decreased from nearly 14% to nearly 11% this.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows slightly unsettled weather moving into the Upper Midwest. There could be a few isolated t-showers here in there late in the day, but it won't be too widespread. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be at or slightly below average for mid August.

Tuesday Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming to near 80F in the afternoon with isolated showers and storms possible. It won't be a washout, but there could be a couple of pockets of heavy rainfall in a few locations.

Tuesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temperatures starting in the low/mid 60s and warming to near 80F by the afternoon. Southerly winds should be fairly light through much of the day as well.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temperatures through midweek with cooler than average temps returning late week and into the weekend. Note that the average high dips into the upper 70s by the last week of the month. Enjoy the warmth while you can, it'll be gone before we know it.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows temps warming to near 80F through Thursday and into the 70s Friday and into the weekend. Spotty showers and storms will be possible with a better chance of rain on Friday & Saturday.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook, temperatures over the next several days will be close to average. Readings will likely bounce around the 70s and 80s through the 2nd half of the month.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across the northern tier of the nation and the Western US, while cooler than average temps are in place across the central and southern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows drier weather in place across the Midwest. However, the southern two-thirds of the looks wetter and more active.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Increasingly Soggier Days Ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

Knock, knock. Who's there? Accordion. Accordion who? Accordion to the weather forecast, it's going to rain tomorrow! Sorry for the dad joke, but I couldn't resist, it's National Joke Day!

All joking aside, it has been a pretty warm and dry summer thus far. Minneapolis is sitting at the 9th driest and 14th warmest June 1st - August 15th on record. The summer season is nearly 6 inches below average at the MSP Airport with thin sliver of severe drought stretching across the metro into the Minnesota River Valley.

Things are looking increasingly soggier this week with the best chance of more widespread rains across the northern half of the state through Midweek. Showers and storms become more likely across the southern half of the state later in the week, which may help ease the drought.

A few local lawns are still brown, but the upcoming cooler and somewhat wetter weather could help bring a few light shades of green to a neighborhood near you.

Remember, rain that never comes to fruition is a 'mist' opportunity. Sorry, #DadJoke

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. T-showers? Winds: SE 5. High: 80.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Slight chance of showers. Winds: SE 5. Low: 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Isolated storms. Winds: SSE 5. High: 80.

THURSDAY: Showers and storms more likely late. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High: 80.

FRIDAY: Scattered rain and rumbles. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 76.

SATURDAY: Lingering clouds and t-showers. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 75.

SUNDAY: Shower possible early. Peeks of pm sun. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: 77.

MONDAY: Stray afternoon shower risk. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 79.

This Day in Weather History

August 16th

1981: Chilly temperatures are felt across Minnesota. Tower reports a low of 33 degrees.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

August 16th

Average High: 81F (Record: 99F set in 1988)

Average Low: 63F (Record: 47F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 1.97" set in 2002

Record Snowfall: None

Twin Cities Almanac For August 16th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

August 15th

Sunrise: 6:16am

Sunset: 8:17pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 01 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 47 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 hour & 36 minutes

Moon Phase for August 16th at Midnight

1.9 Before Last Quarter Moon

National High Temps Monday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows temps running above average across the southern US and the western US. Meanwhile, folks in the Midwest, Great Lakes and into the Eastern US will be cooler than average.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through Wednesday will be a little unsettled in the Desert Southwest and into the Plains. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rains and perhaps a few isolated strong to severe storms. There will also be storms across the Gulf Coast States with areas of heavy rain.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found in the Desert Southwest with more monsoon storms. There will also be areas of heavier rain in the Central US and the Gulf Coast States.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Surprise solar storm leaves stunning glowing lights in the sky that have scientists baffled"

"Late on the night of August 7, a surprise solar storm slammed into the Earth's magnetic field. The clash of the storm against our planet's outer shield resulted in the appearance of a baffling aurora-like phenomenon known as STEVE, which is short for Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement. STEVE first appeared in the sky back in 2017, and since then has appeared numerous times. The latest appearance peaked later Sunday night when a solar storm slammed into our planet's atmosphere. Like most solar storms, this caused several auroras throughout the world. One of those auroras, known as the STEVE phenomenon, was spotted over Alberta, Canada. Twitter user @amazingskyguy managed to snap several images of the event, which were posted in a tweet."

"Extreme Weather Is Only Getting Worse. Can Cities Protect Public Transit?"

"Last September, New York City was so thoroughly inundated by Hurricane Ida that some commuters waded through water up to their waists just to get in and out of the subway station. Across the country, extreme heat battered the West Coast, melting Portland's streetcar power cables. This summer is seeing similar headlines, with heatwaves warping the BART train tracks in San Francisco and sudden rainfall interrupting Northeastern commutes."

"Stormy Weather And Dogs: 4 Things You May Have Overlooked"

"I have been a contributor to Forbes for several years now. My topical "swim lane" is weather, climate, and science. In the past week, a piece that I wrote about teens wearing hoodies in summer heat made a big viral splash in that lane. My colleague and noted climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe light-heartedly commented on one of my social media posts, "Now write one about how extreme weather affects dogs." It was actually a great idea. My family has owned dogs in the past, and I am a weather geek so let's do it."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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