Horseshoes may be good for horses and fun to play with, but they are terrible for politics.
In political science there is an assertion called the Horseshoe Theory. The thesis posits that the political spectrum is not linear but shaped like the bend of a horseshoe, with the left and right extremes being closer to each other than often considered.
The Horseshoe Theory was first described by French writer Jean-Pierre Faye. Faye observed that political ideologies on both the extreme left and extreme right were characterized by similar traits and they had little in common with the ideologies of the political center. The Horseshoe Theory does not require the extremes to have the same beliefs, values or philosophies, only that they show similarities in their behavior.
A recent example of the extremes growing closer together is the far left's and the far right's responses to the Russian war against Ukraine, and the role of NATO. From the extreme left we have a recent statement from the Democratic Socialists of America calling for the U.S. to withdraw from NATO and "end the imperialist expansionism that set the stage for this conflict." From the right, we have the de facto leader of the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump, having discussed several times his desire for the U.S. to leave NATO, which if it happened would destroy NATO.
The problem with the Horseshoe Theory is not that it's incorrect but that practicing politics within the horseshoe is impractical. Just as Faye observed, as the ends of the shoe grow closer to meeting, it closes in on the voters in the center or those just left or just right of that center.
Let's take those horseshoes and play the game with the same name. The game of horseshoes is played by pitching horseshoes toward a metal stake. Players score points by landing their shoes closest to the stake. A ringer is a shoe that encircles the stake. If elections are the stakes and the shoes are political parties, then the wider the shoe's opening, the easier it will be to score a ringer, or win an election.
If candidates or political parties want to win elections, they need to throw a shoe that is as wide open as possible. The way to do that is with building cross-party coalitions between factions and by having more centrist voters who turn out in primaries and the midterms. Since the rules of the game are not going to change, at least not in the near future, moderates need to be strategic in their play.
The highest percentage of American voters now consider themselves independent. Many of those independent voters likely lean one way or the other but probably find themselves in the bowl of the horseshoe.
