The effect may not yet be obvious in grocery stores and markets, but behind the organic apples and bags of rice and cans of cherry pie filling are hundreds of thousands of farmers, plant breeders and others in agriculture who are scrambling to keep up with climate change.
Drop a pin anywhere on a U.S. map and you'll find disruption in the fields. Warmer temperatures are extending growing seasons in some areas and sending a host of new pests into others. Some fields are parched with drought, others so flooded that they swallow tractors. Decadeslong patterns of frost, heat and rain — never entirely predictable but once reliable enough — have broken down. "Farming is no different than gambling," said Sarah Frey, whose farms in the South and the Midwest grows much of the nation's watermelons and pumpkins. "You have all of these consequences that farmers weren't expecting."
Indeed, a two- or three-week shift in a growing season can upset supply chains, labor schedules and even the routes that honeybees travel to pollinate fields. Higher temperatures and altered growing seasons are making new crops possible in places where they weren't before, but that same heat is also hurting traditional crops. Here are a handful of everyday foods that are facing big changes:
Organic apples, Washington
Most organic apples in the U.S. come from Washington state, which grows about 230,000 tons a year. Hotter spring weather can increase diseases like fire blight. And hotter temperatures can subject both organic and conventionally grown apples to sunburn, which causes defects on the fruit's skin. Some growers have taken to installing large nets over orchards to reduce the intensity of the sunlight, but the process is expensive. Unlike many row crops, which can be replanted year to year, orchards can take a decade or two to regrow.
Tart cherries, Michigan
Growers rely on a long, cold winter and a slow, cool spring so trees won't bud and bloom before the threat of a final freeze is over. But lately, Grand Traverse Bay hasn't been freezing over reliably, so warmer temperatures arrive too soon. There have been two total crop failures in a decade; the last one before that was in 1945. Spring weather has become more violent. The spotted wing Drosophila, an invasive fruit fly, also showed up in 2010, and many farmers believe it is spreading quickly as a result of shifting climate patterns.
Organic raspberries, New York
The fruit fly that is vexing cherry growers in Michigan is also attacking the raspberry crop in New York. Winters haven't been as long or as cold, so the flies are appearing earlier; organic fruit are especially at risk because of limits in the use of pesticides. Couple that with mild winters that don't kill off pests, and unusual weather patterns that don't bring rain when they should — or bring so much that farmers can't get into the fields to work or have to battle fungus — and organic berries aren't such a good bet anymore.
Watermelons, Florida
An earlier growing season has, in many ways, been good for farmers like Sarah Frey. She used to start harvesting Florida watermelons in mid-April. This year, her crews were picking in March. She'll be picking earlier in Georgia and Missouri. But earlier and longer growing seasons have consequences. For Frey, harvesting watermelons earlier puts her into competition with the late-winter crop from Mexico. And more restrictive immigration policies could mean she won't have enough workers when she needs them.
Chickpeas, Montana
The chickpea is enjoying an unexpected assist from extreme weather. Montana farmers, who grow about 60% of U.S. chickpeas, are being encouraged to plant more as a hedge against heat and drought. The average annual temperature has increased by 2.4 degrees in the past century, but the amount of rain hasn't changed much. Chickpeas, which need less water to grow than other mainstays of Montana's agriculture, provide an antidote. They improve soil and help reduce the need for fertilizer.