Hot Thursday Before A Cold Front Brings Cooler Temperatures And Rain In

Another day with a blast of summer-like weather is on the way for Thursday with highs climbing up to around 90F in the metro. A mostly sunny sky is expected ahead of a cold front moving in overnight into Friday morning.

Hot enough for ya? Most of the state will climb into the 80s and 90s on Thursday (except areas of the Arrowhead/North Shore), which will be 10-20F degrees above average for the first third of September. Sunnier skies are expected in southern Minnesota, but there will be at least a slight chance of passing showers at times during the day in northern portions.

Forecast loop: 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday

Some of the better chances of showers in northern Minnesota will be later in the day, expanding across western Minnesota into the evening and overnight hours as well. A few of the storms from Alexandria and St. Cloud northeastward into the Arrowhead could be on the strong side with a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place. Hail and wind are the greatest threats.

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As that front moves through Friday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in the metro late Thursday Night into Friday. Some of the showers could linger into Saturday. Even though the forecast above shows sunny skies for Sunday, there appears to be an increasing chance we could still see rain around as the front stalls nearby. Highs Friday through the weekend will be around 70F.

The heaviest rain in the Thursday through Sunday timeframe looks to fall across central Minnesota to the North Shore, with rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1" possible in these areas.

The Most Humid City In The USA?
By Paul Douglas

"It's not the heat, it's the...oh never mind." We talk a lot about the weather and humidity always comes up. A warmer atmosphere holds more water in the air during the warm season, making for a higher heat index and limiting how much temperatures can fall at night.

NOAA data shows the highest humidities in the nation can be found near the Gulf Coast. Lake Charles Louisiana is America's most humid city. If anyone asks. Mississippi is nearly as muggy. Lowest average annual humidity? Las Vegas and Phoenix. Ah yes, a "dry heat".

Humidity levels are higher near the Great Lakes (Duluth, Green Bay and Chicago) than across most of Minnesota, but we are seeing more days with dew points in the 70s, even a few 80s. Dubai drippy.

Hold the presses! ECMWF guidance shows a storm stalling over Iowa this weekend with wrap-around moisture squeezing out significant rain; maybe 1-3" south/east of MSP. Not sure if that's a fluke or a trend, but showers are likely Friday, with potentially heavy rain returning on Sunday.

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Hot sun, T-storms tonight. Wake up 70. High 90. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Cooler with showers, few rumbles. Wake up 65. High 69. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind N 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and damp. Wake up 59. High 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Rain potential increasing. Wake up 60. High 63. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Glimmers of sunshine. Wake up 57. High 73. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and milder. Wake up 58. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 8th

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 53 minutes, and 22 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 3 seconds

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This Day in Weather History
September 8th

1985: An F1 tornado touches down in Faribault County causing $25,000 worth of damage, and hail up to 1 3/4 inches falls in Freeborn and Waseca Counties.

1968: 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Goodhue County.

1931: A record high is set in St. Cloud with a temperature of 102 degrees Fahrenheit.

On Thursday, an area of low pressure in the Southeast will produce the potential of heavy rainfall. A front moving into the upper Midwest will produce storms, some of which could be strong. Otherwise, the big story will continue to be the heat threat out west.

The heaviest rain through Friday evening will be in the Southeast, where some areas of Florida and Georgia could see 3"+ of rain. Rain will start to be possible in the Southwest on Friday, with heavier rain falling through the weekend (more on that below).

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Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Wednesday morning, September 7th, 2022

Key Messages:

Excessive Heat Continues. While for some yesterday will have been the peak of the heat in the western United States, we will continue to see widespread excessive heat concerns over the next several days. Excessive Heat Warnings are in place through today for Phoenix, through Thursday for Las Vegas, and through Friday for Los Angeles, San Diego and Sacramento. Denver, Salt Lake City, Billings, and Boise are under a Heat Advisory today. Remember that heat is the number one killer in the United States, with an average of 138 killed per year between 1990-2019.

Forecast Highs Next Few Days. Highs in the 90s and 100s will continue through the week across the region, with widespread record highs expected. This hot airmass won't allow temperatures to fall much through the overnight hours (only into the 70s or low 80s in many locations), which means the body isn't allowed to recover from the hot daytime temperatures. This extended stretch of heat, including warm overnight lows, could lead to a higher potential of heat illness.

Heat Risk For Today. A newer product from the National Weather Service called HeatRisk was created to show a quick look at where there is an elevated heat concern over the next seven days. We continue to have a high to very high heat risk across portions of the Southwest as we head through the day. This is expected to continue for much of the week across the region, especially in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys, and will continue to have major impacts on human health and potentially the power grid.

California Power Grid. Yesterday an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) 3 was issued for the evening hours as the power grid hit a new record load demand of 52,061 megawatts and California ISO urged power customers to cut back on energy usage to help prevent power outages. A Flex Alert has once again been issued for later today between 4-9 PM, and with an expected high electricity demand do not be surprised to see this elevated later today to one of the Energy Emergency Alert levels.

Extreme Fire Danger. In the Northwest, we are tracking a Critical to Extreme fire danger threat today as the pattern starts to change with a system coming in. Ahead of that system, strong winds and very warm temperatures, along with low humidity, will support extreme fire behavior with any active or new wildfires. These atmospheric conditions will also lead to the potential of "dry thunderstorms" (storms that contain lightning but no rainfall) that'll be able to set off new fires and have their own strong winds associated with them.

Tropical Update. We are currently tracking three named system between the Atlantic and eastern Pacific:

Southern California Heavy Rain. With moisture surging northward late this week into the weekend, heavier rain can be expected across the region with rainfall amounts through the weekend of 1-4" possible in some locations. While these areas need rainfall, it's going to be the case we've seen several times across parts of the country this summer of too much rain in a short amount of time, and the flood threat will be there Friday and likely continue into the weekend.

Fourteen In The West Pacific. Out in the western Pacific we are tracking Tropical Storm Fourteen, which will continue to remain over water through the next several days. We will keep an eye on whether this system will have any impact as a typhoon next week in areas such as Taipei and Seoul.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

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More from MinnPost: "Gov. Tim Walz spent a lot of political capital to adopt tougher new vehicle emission standards in Minnesota. In his first year in office in 2019, Walz announced Minnesota would follow California in requiring automakers to provide more electric vehicles for sale in Minnesota. Republicans have repeatedly bashed the decision to act unilaterally and, in their view, force EVs on uninterested drivers. It all came to a head last year, when Walz's commissioner leading the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency resigned rather than get fired by the Republican-led Senate. After all that, the regulations could now be short-lived — lasting just one year — because of a new move by California. California has unique power to write its own emission rules, and other states can either follow California or adopt the federal regulations, which are less stringent. So what happens when California decides, as it announced last month, to dramatically change its rules by opting to ban the sale of most new gas-powered cars by 2035? States like Washington and Massachusetts have said, "We're in." Not Minnesota – at least not yet."

This Hot Summer Is One of the Coolest of the Rest of Our Lives

More from Scientific American: "Extreme heat has been a constant in the news this past summer: In July a punishing heat wave in Europe pushed temperatures across parts of the U.K. above 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) for the first time in history. That same month was viciously hot across China, including in Shanghai—home to 26 million people—which tied its highest-ever July reading of 105.6 degrees F (40.9 degrees C). And even before the summer officially began, searing heat settled over the U.S. South in May. Amarillo, Tex., recorded its earliest day with temperatures topping 100 degrees F (37.8 degrees C), and Abilene, Tex., endured 14 straight days of 100 degrees F or higher, doubling its previous streak. Those were just a few of the events that contributed to the Northern Hemisphere's land areas experiencing their second-warmest June and third-warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But temperatures that make big news today may seem ho-hum—even relatively cool—within a couple of decades, as the continued burning of fossil fuels pushes baseline temperatures ever higher."

How Drought and War Are Really Affecting the Global Food Supply

More from WIRED: "THE IMAGES ARE apocalyptic. Pleasure boats marooned in dried-up European rivers. Norwegian reservoirs too low to drive hydropower. China's largest inland lake turned to a prairie as its water evaporates away. And so are the warnings. The National Drought Group of the UK predicts that yields of some vegetable crops—carrots, onion, and potatoes—could be cut in half. The European Drought Observatory says that almost half of the bloc is drier than it has been since the Renaissance. China's agricultural ministry has urged farmers to undertake emergency switches to different crops following a historic heatwave. With fall harvests coming, it's natural to be concerned about global food supplies. But people who track the production and trade of major crops say the world is not in an emergency—yet."

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser