Monday Weather Outlook

Monday brings another sunny but hazy day to the region as we still have wildfire smoke aloft in the atmosphere. Morning temperatures start off in the 60s but climb to around 90F for a high as the hum of air conditioners continues across the region.

80s and 90s are expected across the state to begin the work week, with some highs in northern Minnesota approaching 15-20F degrees above average. A few showers or storms will be possible late in the day across northern Minnesota as a cold front slowly moves into the region out of Canada.

We could even see a few record highs across northern Minnesota on Monday, with Baudette and Hibbing expected to break their record for the day. The record at Baudette is 86 set in 2016, and in Hibbing it is 91 set in 1977.

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Hot Week Of Weather Ahead

One word can definitely describe the upcoming week in the Twin Cities: hot! Highs will slowly climb through the low and mid-90s this week, with the warmest day expected to be Friday as highs top off around 95F. The "best" rain chance for the metro during the work week is a 20% chance Wednesday Night before a system brings some better chances Friday Night into Saturday morning. Dewpoints will be creeping upward this week, with values near 70F possible by Friday, which would cause heat index values to approach 100F late this week.

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Rain Mainly Stays North Until The End Of The Week

Potential precipitation through Thursday evening

As we head through the week we will watch a frontal boundary slip south and then stall out across portions of central Minnesota. Mainly north of that front, we will see the chance for a few systems moving through that will bring some lighter rain chances along with them. This graphic, courtesy of WeatherBell showing the Weather Prediction Center forecast, does show some rain chances making it to the Twin Cities. That's due to a slight chance a shower or storm could make it into the metro Tuesday through Wednesday Night, but the better rain chances would be to our north and east.

Finally, an area of low pressure will push through the upper Midwest as we head into Friday Night and Saturday morning (above shows the predicted forecast for Saturday morning). This will bring through the best chance of rain for the Twin Cities in that Friday Night/Saturday morning timeframe, with maybe a half an inch of rain in some locations.

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Sweltering Second Half of Summer Arrives

By Paul Douglas

We are heading back to the 90s. That's right. Pagers, Beanie Babies, grunge rock and a dozen DVDs to subscribe to AOL. That, and a treadmill of toasty temperatures as far ahead as I can see.

Weather models keep temperatures well above average into at least mid-August. A consensus of climate models keep us warmer and drier than average into October. Water levels may continue to drop due to more sunshine, evaporation and warmth into autumn, with a nagging risk of wildfires up north. Not nearly as bad as the drought gripping the western USA, but bad enough.

Temperatures should hit or top 90F every day this week, starting today. A few instability pop-up thundershowers are possible late Tuesday and Wednesday, with a better chance of a bigger swarm of T-storms Saturday. Enough rain to settle the dust, but not the series of soakings we need right now to restore water levels and soil moisture.

An average MSP summer has 13 days above 90F. So far: 14 days above 90F; 12 of those in June. July may bring just as many.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 65. High 90. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Sticky sun, stray PM T-storm. Wake up 68. High 92. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Some sun, isolated T-shower. Wake up 69. High 90. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 70. High 92. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Hazy sunshine. Still toasty. Wake up 71. High 93. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Line of T-storms, then some PM sun. Wake up 72. High 90. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunnier day of the weekend. Wake up 68. High 91. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 19th

*Length Of Day:15 hours, 8 minutes and20 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday:1 minute and 50 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight? July 24th (14 hours, 58 minutes, and 22 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
July 19th

1987: The town of Floodwood lives up to its name with nearly 6 inches of rain in two days.

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National Weather Forecast

A very slow-moving boundary across the Deep South and Southeast will lead to rounds of showers and storms with ample moisture in place as we head into Monday. An area of low pressure in New England will also bring rain chances. Some monsoonal rain will be possible out west, but dry thunderstorms from central California into the Northwest could cause wildfires to spark.

The heaviest rain the next few days will be across the Deep South and Southeast, where some areas could see at least three inches of rain fall.

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Tourists are desperate to return to national forests … just in time for wildfire season

More from the Grist: "As the Southwestern corner of the country baked to a crisp and fires began to flare in late June, officials also closed the Prescott, Kaibab, Apache-Sitgreaves, and Coconino national forests — all in Arizona. It is likely the largest number of simultaneous closures in Forest Service history. Forests have shut down in response to fire risk before, of course, but not all at once like this, Punky Moore, a fire communications specialist for the Forest Service's southwestern region, told Grist.These closures come just as businesses are trying to recover from COVID-19 losses, and when many people are desperate to get out to public lands for pandemic-safe activities and Instagrammable travel."

Great Salt Lake is shrinking fast. Scientists demand action before it becomes a toxic dustbin

More from CNN: "Great Salt Lake is also known as America's Dead Sea — owing to a likeness to its much smaller Middle Eastern counterpart — but scientists worry the moniker could soon take new meaning. Human water consumption and diversion have long depleted the Utah lake. Its level today is inches away from a 58-year low, state officials say, and Western drought conditions fueled by the climate crisis have exacerbated conditions. The worst part? It's only July, and the lake historically doesn't reach its annual low until October."

How data could save Earth from climate change

More from The Guardian: "As monikers go, Subak may seem an odd choice for a new organisation that aims to accelerate hi-tech efforts to combat the climate crisis. The name is Indonesian, it transpires, and refers to an ancient agricultural system that allows farmers to co-ordinate their efforts when irrigating and growing crops."Subak allows farmers to carefully synchronise their use of water and so maximise rice production," said Bryony Worthington, founder and board member of the new, not-for-profit climate action group. "And that is exactly what we are going to do – with data. By sharing and channelling data, we can maximise our efforts to combat carbon emissions and global warming. Data is going to be the new water, in other words.""

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser