Have a Happy (Subzero) New Year!

We'll add to that total with another 2-4" by tonight. The sun comes out Wednesday with single-digit daytime "highs". Enjoy the relative warmth, because a true arctic front is brewing for the weekend. ECMWF (European model) consistently keeps most of Minnesota below zero New Year's Day into Sunday. Wind chills may dip from -20 to -40F. Check the weather blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

December 28, 2021 at 3:30AM
Monday Morning Ice (@NWSTwinCities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Analysis

Here are the snowfall tallies from the latest storm system PM Sunday into Monday. Some of the heaviest tallies were across parts of Central Minnesota, where some 12" to 18" tallies were reported.

Snowfall Analysis From Sunday Nights Storm (NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall So Far This Season

With Sunday's snowfall in the Twin Cities, we have now officially seen 20.5" so far this season, which is actually +3.2" above average. With that being said, there are still several spots around the region that are dealing with below average snowfall for the season. However, there is more on the way Tuesday and possibly Thursday and Saturday.

Snowfall So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure From Average This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook From AM Tuesday to AM Wednesday

The weather outlook from AM Tuesday to AM Wednesday shows our next light snow chance moving through the region. The heaviest snow should be around midday and will fade later in the day.

Weather Outlook From AM Tuesday to AM Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential Through Wednesday

Snowfall amounts of 1" to 3" will be possible across the Twin Cities metro as this next system moves through. This snow will be light and fluffy, so road conditions will likely become very slippery through the day.

Snowfall Potential Through Wednesday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

More Snow Thursday & Saturday

The extended weather outlook from AM Thursday to AM Sunday shows two more chances of snow. One system will bring light snow to the area on Thursday and a potentially more potent system will move through parts of the Upper Midwest on New Year's Day Saturday.

More Snow AM Thursday & Saturday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average, including the Twin Cities. The MSP Airport is still -5.68" below average since January 1st, which is the 59th driest January 1st - December 26th on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook for Minneapolis on Sunday, which shows near average temperatures for late December with highs warming into the mid 20s. Light snow will develop in the morning and continue through much of the afternoon with some 1" to 3" tallies possible by the evening.

Minneapolis Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday show temps starting in the low 10s in the morning and warming to mid 20s by the afternoon. Snow will develop in the morning and continue through much of the afternoon. Southeasterly winds will be 15mph to 25mph through the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Cold Feels Like Temps on Tuesday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday will be very chilly with readings in the 0F to 5F range in the morning to around 10F to 15F in the afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

High temps across the region on Tuesdaywill warm into the 10s & 20s across much of the state, which will be closer to average. However, note the colder air perched to the northwest, where highs will only warm into the single digits above and below 0F, which will be nearly -15F to -25F below average.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows MUCH colder air in place for the 2nd half of the week. Readings will be nearly -10F to -20F below average for late December with highs only warming into the teens and single digits.

5 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather forecast over the next several days shows colder weather continuing through the first few days of 2022. There is a chance of snow on Tuesday, Thursday and again New Year's Day Saturday.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, we'll be much cooler for the week ahead with a first chance of sub-zero readings during the last week of the year.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows below average reading across the Western US and northern tier of the nation into early January. Meanwhile, much of the Southern US will running well above average once again.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather in place across the nation.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Have a Happy (Subzero) New Year!
By Paul Douglas

I'm continually amazed by how fast weather patterns can change at this lofty latitude. Green lawns in early December - 16 tornadoes on December 15? Here, let me freshen up your life with another candy-coating of snow.

According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service the nearly 3" that fell at MSP Sunday night brought the metro total up to 20.5" for the winter to date; nearly 3" above normal.

We'll add to that total with another 2-4" by tonight. The sun comes out Wednesday with single-digit daytime "highs". Enjoy the relative warmth, because a true arctic front is brewing for the weekend. ECMWF (European model) consistently keeps most of Minnesota below zero New Year's Day into Sunday. Wind chills may dip from -20 to -40F. Other than that, very nice indeed! NOAA's models print out a massive snowstorm for Minnesota New Year's Day. Not convinced of that (yet) but Sunday will be the better travel day.

So 48 hours of numb, then it's over. Pro-tip: any (cheap) champagne will be extra-chilled this weekend.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Another 2-4" PM hours. Winds: NE 10-20. High: 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Patchy freezing drizzle ends. Cloudy. Winds: S 5-15. Low: -4.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, comfortably numb. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 7.

THURSDAY: Cloudy, period of flurries. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 3. High: 23.

NEW YEAR'S EVE FRIDAY: Sunny peeks, cold wind blows. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 13. High: 19.

NEW YEAR'S DAY SATURDAY: Numbing with a chance of snow. Winds: N 15-25. Wake-up: -9. High: -4.

SUNDAY: Better travel day. Arctic breeze. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: -15. High: 0.

MONDAY: Some sun, some feeling in my fingers. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: -2. High: 12.

This Day in Weather History

December 28th

2000: Central and southeast Minnesota receive 6 to 10 inches of snow. Some notable snow amounts include: Chanhassen NWS Forecast Office with 7.8 inches, St Cloud with 7.5 inches, and Hutchinson, Willmar, Albany, Red Wing, and Long Prairie with 7.0 inches.

1979: Balmy weather enables the city park crew in Duluth to rake leaves.

1927: A cold snap results in sharp temperature drops across Minnesota. The temperature would fall from 41 to -15 at Farmington.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 28th

Average High: 24F (Record: 47F set in 2013)

Average Low: 9F (Record: -27F set in 1980)

Record Rainfall: 1.09" set in 1982

Record Snowfall: 12.0" set in 1982

Twin Cities Almanac For December 28th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 26th

Sunrise: 7:50am

Sunset: 4:37pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 49 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 31 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 minutes

Moon Phase for December 28th at Midnight

2.2 Days After Last Quarter

Moon Phase for December 28th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows record warmth continuing across many locations in the Southern US, where high temperatures will be nearly +15F to +20F above average. Temps in the western half of the nation will be much cooler than average with readings running nearly -10F to -20F below average.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through the middle part of the week shows active weather in place across much of the nation. A deep trough in the Western US will continue to keep areas of heavy rain and heavy mountain snow in place there, while another storm system will move through the Central US with areas of plowable snow in the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes Region with areas of rain and snow in the southern US.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found in the Western US, where several inches of liquid precipitation will be possible. We're also getting indications of heavier precipitation across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley, where some 2" to 4" liquid tallies can't be ruled out.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall potential through the last full week December. Note that heavy snowfall potential will continue in the high elevations in the Western US as well as parts of the Midwest & Great Lakes Region.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"9 times nature was totally metal in 2021"

Remembering the plasma hurricanes, tortoise assassins and dinosaur fight clubs that made 2021 heavier than a black hole. "Nature is healing" is a popular refrain we've heard time and again over the last two years. Sure … tell that to the baby bird who had its head bitten off by a rampaging tortoise in the Seychelles, or the fish in Texas who woke up to find its tongue replaced by a bloodthirsty parasite. Nature is, and always has been, brutal, awesome, epic and heavy as a black hole's empty heart. In 2021, things were no different. Here are 9 of our favorite times when nature was totally metal this year.

"In Photos: See The Dramatic Final Images Of NASA's $10 Billion Webb Space Telescope After Its Christmas Day Launch"

"Did you watch the James Webb Space Telescope launch? If you did—and you stayed with the broadcast beyond the successful launch—you will have seen some dramatic images of it separating from the Ariane 5 launch vehicle and beginning its one million miles journey. Surely one of humanity's greatest scientific achievements, Webb successfully launched on the Ariane 5 rocket at 7:20 a.m. EST from Europe's Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. Just five minutes after the launch Webb began sending back telemetry data, but it wasn't until 27 minutes into the flight that it separated from the Ariane 5. Here's what that dramatic sequence looked like:"

"2021 cancelled out nearly all the emissions reductions of 2020"

"Instead of coming back from the pandemic-related closures with new, clean systems, the global economy just fired up all its old engines. After a record-breaking drop in carbon emissions in 2020, global CO2 emissions have bounced back, nearly to pre-pandemic levels—a sign of how a "return to normal" isn't enough to curb the emissions crisis and avoid tipping over our carbon budget. When the world shut down in 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use that year dropped by two billion metric tons, the equivalent of taking 500 million cars off of roads globally. But as things reopened, with people heading back into offices and even flying again, all that activity has brought global emissions back up, mostly cancelling out that 2020 decrease."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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