GOP states may hold key to Democratic bid

Sen. Barack Obama's primary victory in Mississippi on Tuesday raises a question: If a Democrat wins a Democratic primary in a Republican state, does it make a sound that can be heard in the fall?

Obama thinks his wins in Republican states such as Mississippi not only help him now for the nomination, but also signal that he can compete for those states in the fall against John McCain.

Sen. Hillary Rodham's Clinton's camp says no Democrat can win solidly Republican states in November, so Obama's victories now are misleading.

Who is right? The answer is crucial. It could influence the 300 or so Democratic superdelegates who are wavering between the two. If they believe that Obama could put some "red" states into play this fall, that would be a powerful reason to back him. If not, they could swing to Clinton, who has shown more strength in reliably Democratic powerhouse states such as California, New Jersey and Massachusetts, as well as the Republican swing state of Ohio.

If Obama wins the nomination, his bid to win GOP states could make the difference between a close election and a Democratic landslide that could realign the country's political landscape, perhaps for years. The key is independents and Republicans; many of each have crossed over in Republican states to support Obama in Democratic contests.

Can Obama redraw the map?

Larry Gerston, a political scientist at San Jose State University, said, "We just don't know how many of those people went over to him temporarily or whether he can attract them in the fall. If this is not just a temporary primary-day story in these states, we really could be seeing the making of a realigning election."

Obama himself cites the diversity of his victories as proof that he's building a Democratic coalition that will win in November and redraw the red-blue map that's largely defined presidential politics for more than a decade.

Clinton aides dispute the enduring value of Obama's red-state victories.

"In reality, there are no 'Red States' in a Democratic primary," Clinton adviser Harold Ickes said. "There are only Democratic voters who live in Republican states and represent a small percentage of the general election population."

He noted that 10 of Obama's victories came in "core" Republican states where Kerry lost by at least 15 percentage points: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina and Utah.

Clay Richards, assistant director of the Polling Institute at Connecticut's Quinnipiac University, agreed that winning a deep-red state in March is a far cry from winning it in November. "I don't think a state like Wyoming is going to go Democratic just because Obama swept the Democratic caucuses there," he said.

Clinton has won 14 states, eight of them Republican red states and six of them Democratic blue ones. While she boasts of her wins in big states such as California and New York, those states are very likely to stay in the Democratic column regardless of who wins the nomination.

Her biggest primary win arguably was Ohio, the swing state that went for President Bush in 2004, giving him the general election. If she could win there in November while holding all the other states that Kerry won, she'd be on her way to the White House.