GOP finding some rays of electoral hope

These are tough times to be a Republican, with fewer members in Washington, polls showing strong voter disdain for the party and partisans inside the tent squabbling over who (Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele? Radio talker Rush Limbaugh?) speaks for the GOP.

But there is a bright spot, thanks to an unlikely source: President Obama.

By stocking his Cabinet with some of the Democratic Party's top political prospects, Obama has created a number of opportunities for Republicans ahead of the 2010 elections.

In some states, the president stole his party's strongest Senate prospects. In Illinois and New York, he watched as governors there botched efforts to fill vacated Senate seats, turning those solidly Democratic states into potential battlegrounds.

At this point, few analysts see a serious threat to the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate (although much will depend on the state of the economy). If anything, handicappers say, the party figures to gain a few more Senate seats, after picking up 14 in the last two elections.

"Looking at the map overall, it's not good for Republicans," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "It's just a little bit less bad because of some of (Obama's) appointments."

Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the GOP's senatorial campaign committee, acknowledged "another challenging election cycle" for the party, with Republicans having to defend 19 of 36 Senate seats, including three in battleground states -- Florida, Ohio and Missouri -- where incumbents are retiring. But, Walsh added, with Obama's Cabinet selections, "a number of opportunities exist that weren't there several months ago."

Start with Arizona. Obama's selection of Gov. Janet Napolitano to head the Department of Homeland Security turned her office over to the Republican secretary of state, Jan Brewer. That gives Brewer an edge to win a full term as governor and almost certainly ends the chances for a 2010 Senate race that Democrats would love to have seen: Napolitano versus John McCain.

Similarly, the appointment of former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack as Agriculture secretary thwarted Democratic hopes that he would take on longtime Republican Sen. Charles Grassley.

In Kansas, the selection of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius as secretary of Health and Human Services has greatly diminished Democrats' chances of picking up that state's open Senate seat.

"They had a short list of Democrats that could make the Kansas race competitive, and Obama wiped that list out completely with one choice," said Nathan Gonzales, who tracks campaigns for the Rothenberg Political Report, another nonpartisan newsletter.

Another seat that appeared secure for Democrats might be up for grabs in Colorado after Ken Salazar left to become Interior secretary. His replacement, former Denver schools chief Michael Bennet, is a political neophyte who could face a primary fight.

Colorado was one of the hardest-fought states in the 2008 presidential race. Not so Illinois or New York. But developments since Obama's election and his appointment of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state have created a possible opening for Republicans.

In New York, Gov. David Paterson chose former Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Clinton after a search consumed by the drama surrounding Caroline Kennedy's desire for the seat. Paterson's unartful handling of the process -- followed by a clumsy effort to discredit Kennedy after he made his pick -- hurt both the governor and Gillibrand. Worse, from a Democratic perspective, the party could lose Gillibrand's House seat; a special election in her conservative-leaning district is set for March 31.

Even more embarrassing would be a loss in Illinois, where Democrats have been hurt by the scandal surrounding ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich and his appointment of Roland Burris to fill Obama's Senate seat. Already, potential primary challengers have lined up to face Burris if he should ignore strong hints from party leaders and run again in 2010.

"The jury is out in Illinois and New York," the Cook Report's Duffy said. "But at least Republicans can now wait and watch, where before the states wouldn't have gotten two minutes of their time."

Democrats are loath to criticize Obama. After all, it's his prerogative as president -- and party leader -- to fill his administration with whomever he prefers. Besides, Democrats everywhere have a vested interest in Obama's performance as president.