With thousands of protesters expected on the streets facing thousands of police officers, the American Civil Liberties Union of Minnesota is predicting that 800 people will be arrested during the week of the Republican National Convention and will have 75 lawyers on call to defend them.
The St. Paul police forecast far fewer arrests, but Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher indicated this week that the ACLU's numbers may be in the ballpark.
"It is fair to conclude that the number of detainees is likely to be between the number who were arrested [during GOP conventions] in Philadelphia in 2000 and the number who were arrested in New York in 2004," Fletcher said.
"In Philadelphia, there were 600 arrested, in New York 1,800."
Ramsey County Chief Judge Kathleen Gearin said this week that she had heard those kinds of estimates. "I really don't believe that it is going to reach 1,800, with the information I have now," she said. "It could be closer to 800 and maybe less."
She said that during the 2004 Democratic convention in Boston, the number of people arrested was in the teens.
One reason for New York's high arrest total was a decision by police to arrest a large number of people during one of the demonstrations. Most charges were later dropped. Gearin said she was hopeful that things will work differently here.
"The St. Paul police are telling us they will be doing things more thoughtfully than New York," she said. "They are being trained to avoid some of the arrest situations."