Good COVID news — with a warning

Opinion editor's note: Editorials represent the opinions of the Star Tribune Editorial Board, which operates independently from the newsroom.

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More than 3 million Americans likely would not be here today and looking forward to the new year had it not been for a monumental medical triumph — the swift development of COVID-19 vaccines.

Two years ago, the nation was just beginning to roll out its historic COVID vaccination campaign, which started with the emergency authorization in early December 2020 of the Pfizer shot. It's easy to forget, amid the current widespread availability of this shot and the Moderna vaccine, the relief and rush to get inoculated that greeted this breakthrough.

With booster uptake now unfortunately lagging, a timely new analysis published by the respected Commonwealth Fund is a reminder of how important it is to stay current on this vital immunization. Its findings also underscore what a public health triumph the COVID vaccines and their rapid deployment have been. That is welcome news as the pandemic continues and winter brings the crowded indoor conditions accelerating viral spread.

The analysis was led by researchers from the University of Maryland School of Medicine, Yale School of Public Health and Canada's York University. It is believed to be one of the first to quantify the vaccines' impact at the two-year mark of the pandemic. An estimated 655 million doses have been administered in the U.S. since Pfizer's late 2020 debut.

The numbers in the report, generated by sophisticated computer modeling, are stunning and sobering. As of the end of last month, the researchers estimated that COVID vaccines prevented 3.2 million additional U.S. deaths.

The shots also played a critical role in preventing severe illness and preserving the health care system's capacity. Without them, there would have been at least 18.5 million or more additional hospitalizations.

Medical providers continue to be stretched perilously thin even with vaccines. How could the nation's health care system have handled millions more COVID patients?

It would have been overwhelming, resulting in COVID patients and those with other serious conditions not getting potentially lifesaving care. For that reason, the 3.2 million lives saved is probably an underestimate. Hospital beds not needed for COVID patients meant others could be in them, ensuring access to medical expertise, surgery and procedures.

Lead author Meagan Fitzpatrick is an assistant professor with the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. In an interview this week, she pointed to another COVID vaccine benefit: an estimated $1.15 trillion in savings from medical costs that were not incurred.

"That is just an incredible return on investment," she said. "It's really important to think about the full picture regarding the toll that COVID continues to impose … . It's hospitalizations, deaths and it's in dollars. It's important to think about all of this."