WASHINGTON - Advocates for same-sex marriage set an ambitious timetable for a nationwide victory, laying out a plan for a rapid series of campaigns to win over additional states to achieve that goal.
"Within five years, we will bring marriage equality to all 50 states," Chad Griffin, president of the Human Rights Campaign, pledged to supporters outside the Supreme Court shortly after the court's decisions Wednesday.
The rulings will bring to 13 the number of states, along with the District of Columbia, allowing gay marriage; together they account for about a third of the country's population. But among the remaining states are many deeply conservative ones that probably will resist the nationwide shift toward acceptance of same-sex relationships.
Over the next 18 months, gay rights groups plan legislative or ballot campaigns in at least five states — Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada, Oregon and Hawaii. Same-sex marriage is also before the courts in New Mexico, where state law is unclear.
Seeing a return to high court
Ultimately, however, advocates of same-sex marriage believe that they will have to argue the issue once again before the high court.
"The strategy has always been to secure a critical mass of states and a critical mass of public opinion in favor of marriage equality, and with that climate engage the Supreme Court," said Evan Wolfson, president of Freedom to Marry and one of the leading strategists for the same-sex marriage movement.
For gay rights advocates, the key to success is establishing equal marriage rights for same-sex couples as the norm in the eyes of the American public. This week's rulings indicate that a majority of the justices sympathize with the legal arguments in favor of same-sex marriage. The more widely public opinion and the law come to accept same-sex unions, the more willing a future Supreme Court will be to adopt those arguments and sweep away the remaining barriers, they believe.
Opponents largely share that assessment. As a result, the two sides probably will battle on a number of fronts.