A little while back, CBSsports.com put the Gophers men's basketball team at No. 22 in its early preseason rankings for next year. In case you thought that national love was a fluke, a more startling ranking came out Thursday: ESPN's Andy Katz put the Gophers No. 24.

Why is that more startling?

Well, because this is actually Katz's SECOND crack at an early preseason ranking. The first came out right after the NCAA title game less than two weeks ago. The Gophers were not in the top 25 at the time; more to the point, they weren't even in the "15 more on the cusp" section at the bottom, which is to say they weren't even really Top 40.

So what happened in the past 10 days or so, when absolutely no games were played? Well, plenty of underclassmen made up their minds about entering the NBA draft. And earlier this week, the late signing period started -- starting a fresh wave of winners (UCLA, Kentucky) and losers. As for the Gophers, while Katz might be jumping the gun just a tiny bit in asserting that Trevor Mbakwe has "agreed to come back," signs are certainly pointing in that direction. Tubby Smith has said as much. Mbakwe has said and hinted at as much. And the departure of Chip Armelin paves the way for it to happen in terms of scholarships. And so it's hard to disagree with what Katz writes about your beloved rodents:

Led by the much-improved Rodney Williams, Minnesota played reasonably well and reached the NIT final without the injured Mbakwe. If they have him healthy for a full season -- with their top five scorers back and nearly the entire bench -- there is no reason why the Gophers can't be a contender for a top-four finish in the Big Ten.

Those are, indeed, the standard reasons for optimism going into next year. The big question looming: Are we getting too carried away by the performances of Andre Hollins, Williams and Co. against good-but-not-great NIT competition? Or is this team really ready to make the next step in 2012-13, which would be an upper-half Big Ten finish, a sure-fire NCAA bid, and a realistic shot at making the Sweet 16?