"Perseid meteor shower of 2021, likely the best of the year, is peaking now!"
"The stunning Perseid meteor shower will peak tonight (Aug. 11) in what could well be the most brilliant "shooting star" display of the year. The Perseids are often one of the strongest meteor showers, and this year, the display will be particularly easy to observe, as the moon is just a few days past its new phase, keeping tonight's sky quite dark. Skywatchers began catching early Perseids in late July, and the meteor shower will continue until Aug. 18, but the peak of this meteor shower is well worth catching. Forecasts from Space.com and Sky & Telescope suggest that skywatchers who get themselves someplace dark enough could catch dozens of shooting stars each hour — perhaps one a minute — during the shower's peak, which continues into Thursday morning."
Tracking Fred
Here's a look at the IR Satellite Loop from Wednesday as Tropical Storm Fred moved over Hispaniola and dumped heavy rains over The Dominican and Haiti. Flash Flooding and Mudslides will be possible through the first half of Thursday as Fred slowly moves over the region. Fred was downgraded to a Tropical Depression PM Wednesday, but should regain Tropical Storm Status as it moves back over open water later this week.
Tracking Fred
Here's the forecast track for Fred, which shows the system drifting NW over the next several days. Fred could still be a Tropical Depression by Thursday afternoon, but it should regain Tropical Storm status later this week. Tropical Storm conditions can be expected as Fred lifts north along the West Coast of Florida through the weekend. This system will be responsible for gusty winds, heavy rains and a storm surge for folks along Florida's Gulf Coast
Heavy Rains on the Way
One of the main threats will be heavy rainfall, where several inches can't be ruled out. Flash flood concerns will be possible in some locations in Florida as we head into the weekend.
Simulated Radar Midday Thursday to PM Friday
The HRRR Simulated Radar from midday Thursday to midday Friday shows a few clouds and spotty showers in place on Thursday, but most will stay dry. Friday will also be mostly sunny across the region with mild temps.
Drought Update
The US Drought Monitor released their latest drought update on Thursday, which suggested that drought conditions continue to deepen across the state. Last week, nearly 22% of the state was in an extreme drought, now nearly 35% is in an extreme drought. Severe drought conditions have expanded to nearly 80% of the state, including the Twin Cities.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
Even with last weekend's much needed rainfall, many locations across the region are still several inches below average precipitation from January 1st - August 10th. Minneapolis is still nearly -5.00" below average and at its 40th driest start to any year on record. Fargo was at the 6th driest and Milwaukee 18th driest. However, Wausau, WI is nearly +10.50" above average precipitation since January 1st, which is the 2nd wettest start to any year on record!
Thursday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Thursday, August 12th will dry and sunny with temps warming to near average levels for mid August.
Comfortable Dewpoints on Thursday
Here are the hourly dewpoints for Minneapolis on Thursday, which shows readings in the mid/upper 50s during the first half of the day and will fall to the upper 40s by the afternoon. Keep in mind that anytime dewpoints are below 60F it feels fairly comfortable. With readings in the 40s, it will be very comfortable.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Thursday shows temps warming from near 70F in the morning to the low/mid 80s the afternoon with mostly sunny skies. WNW winds will be a bit breezy at times with gusts approaching 20mph to 25mph.
Regional Weather Outlook for Thursday
The weather outlook across the region on Thursday shows below average temperatures across the northern half of the state. Note that some locations across the northern part of the state will be nearly -10F below average with highs struggling to get to 70F.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temps over the next several days with highs warming into the low/mid 80s. It appears that temps will be a bit warmer as we head into next week, but we should stay mostly dry.
Weather Outlook Through The Weekend
Here's the extended weather outlook through the rest of the week and weekend ahead shows mostly dry and quiet conditions across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Most of the shower and thunderstorm potential will stay south of the Minnesota over the next several days.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing east of the Rockies, including the Midwest. Cooler than average readings will show up across the Western US and into Alaska.
Forecast Calls For Shooting Stars
By Paul Douglas
Honest mistakes happen. My favorite meteorology professor told a story about a wide-eyed astronomy student who proudly presented him with a meteorite to display on his desk. The confusion on the professor's face was obvious. Perplexed, the student asked "You are a meteorologist, right?" Yes, but not THAT kind of meteor.
The Perseid meteor shower, the best of the year, peaks the next 2 nights as Earth passes through debris from Comet Swift Tuttle. Away from city lights look northeast before sunrise; as many as 60 lucky shooting stars/hour may be visible. We could use some luck these days.
Plan on extraordinary weather with sunshine and comfortable dew points into Saturday. Assuming no smoke plumes swerve south out of Canada we should enjoy one of the nicer weekends of summer.
I see a run of 80s right into the first week of the Minnesota State Fair. Not many 90s;the core of the heatwave remains south of hurricane-free Minnesota.
Oh, Tropical Storm "Fred" will spark flooding in Florida this weekend.
Extended Forecast
THURSDAY: Sunny and breezy. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 81.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: WSW 5-10. Low: 57.
FRIDAY: Blue sky, low humidity. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 79.
SATURDAY: Bright sunshine, light winds. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 59. High: 81.
SUNDAY: Warm sunshine, pleasant. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 84.
MONDAY: Sunny, still postcard perfect. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, sticky. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 87.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sunshine, Dog Days return. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High: 90.
This Day in Weather History
August 12th
2000: Record-setting dew points develop in Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a dew point of 76, with a rare dew point of 80 at Faribault.
1821: An eight-day heat wave ends at Ft. Snelling. Temperatures were in the 90's each day.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 12th
Average High: 81F (Record: 94F set in 1965)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 45F set in 1961)
Record Rainfall: 2.42" set in 1985
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 12th
Sunrise: 6:12am
Sunset: 8:23pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 12 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 42 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~1 Hour & 25 Minutes
Moon Phase for August 10th at Midnight
2.3 Days Before First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"It's fun to hunt for a young moon, a thin crescent moon visible in the west shortly after sunset. The new moon was August 8, 2021, at 13:50 UTC. We expect some people to catch the whisker-thin waxing evening crescent and Venus after sunset August 9. If you miss the slender young moon at dusk on August 9, try again on August 10, 11, 12 and 13. To see a young moon, you'll want an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunset. Find a hill or balcony to stand on, enabling you to peek just a little farther over your horizon. Binoculars come in handy, too, especially around August 9 or 10, when the bright evening twilight will be competing with the ghost of a whisker-thin crescent."
Dixie Fire in Northern California
The #DixieFire is the 2nd largest fire in California's history burning more than 500,000 acres as of August 11th. The fire is only 30% contained and has burned several structures. The largest wildfires in the state's history was the August Complex from 2020, which burned more than 1 million acres.
5 Day Tropical Outlook
According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, there is area of interest that has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. This will follow the same path that Fred did and cross over the Lesser Antilles as we approach the weekend and early next week.
National High Temps Thursday
The weather outlook on Thursday shows above average temperatures across much of the northern two-thirds of the nation. Some of the hottest readings will be found in the Pacific Northwest, where excessive heat concerns are in place through Saturday. Some locations under excessive heat concerns could warm to record levels through Saturday as well.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through the end of the week has unsettled weather in place across the middle part of the country, where strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as well. There will also be monsoon storms in the Desert Southwest with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of the along and east of the Mississippi River and into the Southeast. Some of the heaviest rains will be associated with Fred, which could be a tropical storm when it nears the Florida Coast.
Climate Stories
"Wave Power Charges Ahead with Static Electricity Generators"
"One key to harvesting the ocean's clean energy—at least a little of it—may lie in static electricity. A team of researchers in Portugal has now successfully used it to run small generators inside a navigational buoy, powering the sensors and lights that the buoy uses to collect data and aid sailors. Though the project's scale is small so far, the researchers say it is an important proof of concept for a technique that could supplement existing attempts to harness the power of waves, as well as other kinds of naturally occurring motion. Oceans are an appealing target for renewable energy generation. Waves alone produce 32,000 terawatt-hours of natural energy per year—for reference, the entire world uses around 23,000 terawatt-hours annually. And there is also the power of currents, tides and thermal energy. But despite decades of research, the motion of the ocean has proved difficult to harness. Wave patterns are unpredictable, seawater corrodes metal generating machinery, and waves' energy is simultaneously dispersed across three dimensions (up-down, forward-backward and left-right)."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
"'The Day After Tomorrow' film foretold a real and troubling trend: The Atlantic ocean's circulation system is weakening"
"In the 2004 film "The Day After Tomorrow," a climatologist played by Dennis Quaid warns world leaders about a rapid climate shift. The key factor is an ocean current system called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which moves warm water from the equatorial tropics up to Europe and the north Atlantic. This influx of warmer water contributes to western Europe's mild, temperate climate. In the movie, the AMOC stops completely, causing an ice age to begin almost overnight. While the speed and intensity of that cold snap are hyperbolized in the film, the AMOC is very real, and research suggests a slow down of its circulation is a likely consequence of climate change. In a paper published last week, climate scientist Niklas Boers concluded that the AMOC is approaching a tipping point. If enough fresh water from melting polar ice enters the ocean, the current system will experience an "abrupt weakening," and destabilize, he told Insider."
See more from Business Insider HERE:
"The UN Climate Report: All Is Not Well—but All Is Not Lost"
"THE UNITED Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released an alarming new report on the state of the climate: 14,000 pieces of scientific literature synthesized by hundreds of experts. It's a full-throated declaration of what scientists know about how humanity has set the planet on fire: How hot it's gotten and how hot it's going to get, how much polar ice is melting, how droughts and storms are worsening, how dire the path forward looks—unless we take drastic and immediate steps to stop loading the atmosphere with carbon. "We've known for decades that the world is warming, but this report tells us that recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid, and intensifying—unprecedented in thousands of years," said Ko Barrett, IPCC vice chair and senior adviser for climate at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, at a press conference Sunday announcing the report. "The bottom line is that unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C—or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit—will be beyond reach." That limit is the optimistic goal of the Paris Climate Agreement: to keep global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and to avoid 2 degrees of warming. The new report notes that the temperature has already crept up by 1.1 degrees, and is on track to hit 1.5 sometime in the early- to mid-2030s if things don't change."
