A glass-is-half-full Timberwolves fan — a level of optimism seemingly required to still be a member of that base after one playoff appearance since 2004 — might look at this offseason-to-date and note that hey, at least the Wolves haven't made any truly bad moves.
For the Timberwolves next year, it all comes down to Anthony Edwards
Last year's No. 1 overall pick has a high ceiling. How close he gets to it in Year 2 will — barring a major trade — determine the Wolves' fate next year.
August 11, 2021 at 5:02PM
They didn't make a rash trade for a marginal upgrade. Their one move — Ricky Rubio for Taurean Prince, a second-round pick, cash and cap space — was mostly a collective "meh" if you could set aside any personal Rubio feelings. And there have been crickets in free agency while other teams have made significant investments.
Team President Gersson Rosas has been vocal about wanting to make big moves, particularly via trades, but the messaging from the team recently suggests a pivot to a new reality.
"Sometimes it's good to just sit back and not necessarily chase all these guys just because you feel like you have to do that," head coach Chris Finch said recently.
Whether that's by design or because things they wanted to do haven't panned out is a fair question. But barring a big move in the next month or two, it also sets up a big bet next season on internal improvement and continuity. The latter will largely be determined by injuries. The former? It's really one name.
Anthony Edwards.
I talked about Edwards on Wednesday's Daily Delivery podcast with Adam Fromal, the founder of NBA Math. His site just put out an exhaustive ranking of every player in the NBA last season, and his personal thoughts on Edwards took a significant turn during the season.
If you don't see the podcast player, tap here to listen.
In the Crystal Ball rankings on the site, Edwards moved up significantly from the start of the year — with Fromal himself changing his grade from a 4 (high-end backup) to a 7 (high-end starter) after a limited body of work.
"I was pretty vocal in my criticism of that pick going into the draft. I'm actually a University of Georgia alum, so I really wanted him to succeed," Fromal said on the show. "But having watched him at the collegiate level so closely I had a lot of questions about his positioning on the court and whether he could stop himself from taking those hero ball jumpers — and did not think he should have been one of the top picks in this draft.
"That seemed to be a little bit validated at the start of the season, but it became quite clear quite quickly just how much of a mea culpa I was going to have to give because ... there were so many strides, more so than what you would even expect from a highly touted rookie that I am really excited to see what he has in store for us in year two."
That would be great news for the Wolves in any context, but particularly if the offseason yields no real core roster upgrades. They'll be heavily relying on players with upside — Edwards, and to a lesser degree Jaden McDaniels and even Naz Reid — to take two steps forward instead of one.
How does that square with our notion of the Wolves' future based on their present core?
"I think it's enough to make a move into the Western Conference's playoff picture, again just because I've done such a 180 on Anthony Edwards' future here," Fromal said. "I do think there's enough room for growth that he could be 'that guy' especially alongside (Karl-Anthony) Towns. I don't know that there's really enough here to move beyond that realm where you're excited to make the second round of the playoffs. … It still feels like they're one star move away, and that's still assuming that this progression we saw within his rookie season from Edwards continues in some sort of linear fashion."
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