For GOP, Coleman is the elephant in the room

Norm Coleman casts a slight figure, with just about 155 pounds on his 5-foot-11 frame. But his formidable political presence looms large over the Minnesota governor's race.

Before he has even decided whether to run, the former U.S. senator and two-time St Paul mayor has begun to define the election, clearing out one Republican candidate last week and leaving others on edge.

With outstanding name recognition, proven fundraising ability and the narrow loss of his Senate seat mere months ago, Coleman says he is on the verge of deciding about a job some say is the one he has always wanted.

"My heart is still in public service," he said late last year. Coleman declined to be interviewed for this article.

Just the likelihood that he might stride onto a field of lesser-known names has set off strong passions within his party, prompting previous state GOP party chairman Ron Eibensteiner to declare recently that Coleman has "strayed too often from core Republican principles" and should stay out.

Others, such as former state Republican Party chairman Ron Carey, say Coleman would be a formidable candidate who would bring "instant credibility" among longtime activists.

"He is going to shape the dynamics of the race either way," Carey said.

The tides have shifted even since Coleman left office early last year. Many Republicans have become swept up in the Tea Party movement of hard-line fiscal conservatives who are in no mood for the deal-brokering, hand-across-the-aisle style of leadership that Coleman considers his hallmark.

Pat Staley, a Republican state Senate district chair from Rosemount, says activists are skeptical about Coleman's ability to win.

"After all," Staley said, "he has lost to a professional wrestler and a comedian." Coleman lost a gubernatorial bid in 1998 to Jesse Ventura. Last year, a brutal recount in the 2008 Senate race gave his seat to former Saturday Night Live entertainer and writer Al Franken.

Demonstrated assets

But Coleman also would bring undeniable assets.

More than 1.2 million Minnesotans voted for him in 2008 when he raised $24 million -- nearly triple what the three 2006 gubernatorial candidates spent on their race combined. No other current GOP candidate has even run statewide before.

At least one campaign expert estimates Coleman could generate $1 million in the first 30 days of a campaign. So far, no gubernatorial candidate -- on either side, has raised much above $300,000 from contributors in 2009.

Coleman can also rely on longtime supporters like Pat Igo of St. Paul. Igo is backing Rep. Marty Seifert of Marshall but says he'd switch if Coleman signed on.

"I love Norm, and I think I'd probably do all I could for him," Igo said. But, Igo said, that support would likely end if Coleman ran against an endorsed Republican.

Coleman said last week that he would decide "in the near future."

For all his assets, Coleman drags along considerable baggage. His voice may be too moderate for some Republicans and he ran a bitter attack-driven campaign in 2008 that DFLers will not soon forget.

During the 2008 race, Democrats accused Coleman of ethical lapses, and a lawsuit alleged a longtime benefactor tried to funnel money to the senator's wife to help the family's personal finances. Coleman, who wasn't a party to the suit, denied the allegation. The suit was dismissed and no investigation ever found evidence of wrongdoing, but he would carry that history into a governor's race.

He also has his income to think about. He has noted that public service has not made him rich, and in 2008, he owed more on his St. Paul house than it was worth. Recently, he has been working on setting up a "center right" think-tank in Washington.

It's also unclear whether Coleman can translate past support into a 2010 victory.

But, as veteran political strategist and lobbyist Vin Weber said, "Just the possibility that he might run has created a great deal of excitement in many quarters of Minnesota."

Against the tide

"Norm is not the most conservative option," said Patricia Becker of St. Augusta, who saw Coleman this month at a St. Cloud fundraiser for the GOP and says she would not support him.

Among the history and views that might not go over well with the conservative base: his 2008 vote for the bank bailout, his openness to civil unions for gay couples and his embrace of moderate Republicans.

Early in his Senate career, Coleman touted his record of voting 98 percent of the time with President George Bush and was praised by other conservatives for engaging in partisan battles. But Coleman moderated over the years and in his Harvard speech in November, he said Republicans must embrace their moderate members and suggested that politicians should avoid allowing controversial social issues to block progress.

"We also must strive as Americans not to let the debate over our values so damage our unity that our ability to achieve consensus on difficult and pressing issues like health care, social security and national security is destroyed," he said.

In what could be the foundation of a campaign that reaches for the broad middle, Coleman said in a statement last week: "It's clear that we must find common ground among Democrats, Republicans and independents on the great issues of our day."