"Flood prevention exertion" kills two

The North Dakota Health Department has linked two cardiac-related deaths statewide to "flood prevention exertion." But neither person died near the Red River flooding.

North Dakota state epidemiologist Kirby Kruger said Saturday the death reports came from the western and central portions of North Dakota. The Health Department reported 50 flood-related injuries statewide, ranging from ankle and wrist problems to serious vehicle accidents on washed-out roads.

A third death near Comstock, Minn., south of Moorhead, was not considered flood-related, according to Clay County emergency spokesman Dan Olson.

Besides an ice storm in western Kentucky, the Red River flooding is considered the first major disaster to take place during the Obama administration. The president has tapped Craig Fugate to serve as administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, but he hasn't assumed the job yet. Fugate previously was Florida's director of emergency management for eight years. The top job at FEMA has been closely scrutinized since Hurricane Katrina.

FEMA's acting administrator, Nancy Ward, has been "on the ground" in Fargo and Moorhead and received high praise from Janet Napolitano, Obama's secretary of Homeland Security.

"Our choice is not in place, but [Ward] is incredibly competent," Napolitano said. "She's physically there and has a great deal of experience. She's quite good."

Ward has supervised FEMA's western operations, including forest fires that devastated parts of Napolitano's home state of Arizona.

"[The '97 flood] let off for a little bit and then the Weather Service called us and said, 'Hey we had a malfunction in our reading gauge,' and then it took off for another foot and a half," Fargo city administrator Pat Zavoral recalled Saturday. "We learned that you don't celebrate prematurely."

Zavoral pointed to forecasts made over the past six weeks. The Feb. 11 forecast said there was a 50 percent chance that the river would rise to 30 feet. The March 13 forecast raised that to 34 feet but said it would occur on April 15. Four days later the forecast rose to 36 to 40 feet. A day later, it rose to 39 to 41 feet, not by April 15, but by March 28.

Last week the forecast rose to 42 feet on one day, then to 43 the next.

Part of the problem is simply that it's so rare for the river to get this high, said John Gulliver, a civil engineering professor at the University of Minnesota.

The 1997 flood forecast was 5 feet off, Gulliver said, because the forecasters didn't have any data to work with. This year, they at least have the 1997 information to rely on.

As for the storm slated to hit Fargo on Monday ...

"The meteorologist said there's two models, and he trusts both of them," Mayor Dennis Walaker said. "One says a trace and one says 12 inches. You take your pick there."