First 40s For Highs Since May Friday - Extreme Drought In The Metro

Cool Friday - Clouds Early, Sunnier By The Afternoon

Ready for a real fall-feeling day in the metro Friday? Morning temperatures will start off in the mid-30s with highs only climbing to the upper 40s. The last time the Twin Cities saw a high lower than 50F was back on May 1st (48F). Skies will remain mainly cloudy during the morning hours, with more sun than clouds in the afternoon.

Clouds will be on the decrease across the state on Friday, but it will certainly be a chilly day with highs generally only in the 40s.

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Weekend Outlook Features Warming Temperatures

Good news for those that don't want to think about winter just yet - warmer weather is on the way for the weekend with highs hovering around average in the low 60s and sunnier skies in place.

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Warm Start To October

While we saw that cool air rush in on Thursday, it had otherwise been a very warm start to October in the Twin Cities. The average temperature through Wednesday was 65.7F, just about 10F degrees above average! It was the seventh warmest start to the month, just behind last October in sixth place with an average temperature of 66.0F. The warmest first five days of October was 71.1F back in 1922.

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Extreme Drought Develops In Minnesota

Drought has significantly expanded this past week across the state, and we now have Extreme Drought (category 3 of 4) in place from the metro westward across portions of southern Minnesota. Over three-fourths of the state is now considered at least abnormally dry (category 0 of 4... don't ask me why abnormally dry is D0, I do not know), with a little over a third at least in moderate drought.

You can see we only had degradation in this week's update across the state - no improvement was noticed anywhere.

Over the past 90 days, most of the state is running below average in the precipitation department, with the above-average areas matching up pretty well to areas on the Drought Monitor where there aren't at least abnormally dry conditions.

Since the beginning of September, MSP is 3.31" below average - and 8.28" below average since the beginning of the year.

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Fall Color Update

For the first time this fall we are starting to see some State Parks reporting that they are now past peak color. The parks that are as of mid-afternoon Thursday were Lake Bronson, Bear Head Lake, Lake Vermillion-Soudan Underground Mine, Savanna Portage, and Scenic. Bear Head Lake specifically said: "UNBELIEVABLE is the best way to describe how quickly the wind and rain had moved the foliage to the forest floor. It is astonishing how rapidly Mother Nature transformed the park's autumn colors to past peak. The entrance road is covered in orange pine needles and yellow aspen leaves.". You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.

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Minnesota's Drought Continues To Intensify
By Paul Douglas

September was magical and the first 5 days of October brought highs in the 70s. No complaints, except for that dastardly drought.

Not to be Debbie Downer but the latest US Drought Monitor shows moderate drought over a third of Minnesota, with extreme drought over the Twin Cities and southwest suburbs. Crunchy lawns, dusty fields and many people are having trouble getting boats off lifts. A first-world problem, but a problem nonetheless.

Droughts often perpetuate themselves. There is very little moisture in the soil to evaporate into billowing PM showers. Until steering winds aloft shift gears and pull in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, drought will persist.

No significant rain, just clouds and a few sprinkles out there today, keeping afternoon temperatures in the 40s. The sun comes out Saturday and Sunday morning, but watch for a PM instability shower late Sunday.

I see a risk of shorts by Tuesday with more 70s.

Another blustery cold front late next week - but no real storms in sight.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: More clouds, few sprinkles, Wake up 37. High 48. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny, breezy and pleasant. Wake up 37. High 60. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, PM shower possible. Wake up 47. High 62. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: Blue sky. Good dock-removing weather. Wake up 41. High 60. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 3-8 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny with a stiff breeze. Wake up 46. High 72. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Windy with a passing shower. Wake up 54. High 64. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, jacket weather. Wake up 43. High 51. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 7th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 23 minutes, and 34 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight?: October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
October 7th

2003: Record high temperatures are seen across the area. St. Cloud's high is 86 degrees. Minneapolis ties their record high of 85 degrees set in 1997, and Alexandria sets their record high of 88 degrees. Forest Lake reaches a record-setting 82 degrees, along with Stillwater at 84 degrees.

1980: Summer-like heat occurs over Minnesota with highs of 92 at Montevideo and 84 at MSP airport.

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National Weather Forecast

An area of low pressure moving eastward across portions of Canada on Friday will help produce showers and maybe some mixed-in snow from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A stubborn upper-level low in the Southwest will bring the potential of storms and snow at higher elevations.

The heaviest rain through Saturday will be in parts of the Southwest into the Central/Southern Plains where an inch or two could fall.

A few batches of snow will be possible mainly through the end of the week across the lower 48 - in parts of Minnesota and the Great Lakes as well as Nebraska Thursday Night into early Friday, and in parts of the Colorado Rockies over the next few days.

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Large asteroid RM4 to pass closely November 1

More from EarthSky: "The Pan-STARRS 2 telescope in Hawaii discovered a new asteroid on September 12, 2022, that might be as large as a half-mile wide. Additional observations, including some on October 5, 2022, from Steward Observatory at the University of Arizona, confirmed the asteroid's path. The Minor Planet Center has given the asteroid the designation 2022 RM4. Despite the Minor Planet Center listing it as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid, it poses no threat to Earth. It will come just under six times the moon's distance from Earth on November 1, 2022. That's far enough away that we'll be safe. But it's close enough that some telescope-owners might get a peek."

Climate change made 2022's northern-hemisphere droughts 'at least 20 times' more likely

More from CarbonBrief: "The droughts seen across the northern hemisphere this summer were made "at least 20 times more likely" by human-caused climate change, according to a new "rapid-attribution" study. The summer of 2022 saw Europe's worst drought in 500 years. A combination of record-breaking temperatures and low rainfall caused rivers to dry, wildfires to rage and crop failures to compound already high food prices. Elsewhere, the American west experienced its most extreme drought conditions in 1,200 years and sections of the Yangtze – China's longest river – reached their lowest level since at least 1865 amid extreme temperatures and a "severe lack of rainfall"."

North Dakota, Minnesota want to form a hydrogen hub — what does that mean?

More from the Grand Forks Herald: "The governors of North Dakota, Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop the Heartland Hydrogen Hub and receive federal funding that was announced by the U.S. Department of Energy late last month. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers signed the memorandum Wednesday, Oct. 5, in a bid to receive a portion of $7 billion from the Department of Energy that would help develop a new clean energy option. The Department of Energy announced plans to select six to 10 hydrogen hubs for funding on Sept. 23, with concept papers due Nov. 7 and applications due April 7, 2023."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser