Finally home again, Vikings should dispose of Bengals

Well, that was a rough week.

My picks zigged. The NFL zagged.

Even the world's ultimate check-down pick, New England, lost a game while favored by 11 ½ on the road, for gosh sakes. The Patriots looked so doggone bad – 0-for-11 on third downs – they're now favored by 2 ½ points on the road against the team with the best record in the AFC.

Vegas has seen this script before. Beware of the wounded, but refocused Patriot.

I picked the Bears to lose because they're really good at it. They won 33-7. Picked the Broncos to lose because they've perfected it. They won 23-0.

At least I took the over on number of Seahawks ejected during victory formations (2).

The picks went 8-8 straight-up and 6-10 against the spread last week. After picking the Vikings to lose in Atlanta and win in Carolina, I'm suddenly chasing purple ghosts with an 8-5 record in picking Vikings games.

Naturally, the Upset Not-So-Special had the Raiders winning at K.C. But, never fear, we're taking that 3-11 curse to Carolina and pinning it to Aaron Rodgers and the 2 ½-point underdog Packers. Sorry, Packers fans. Vikings fans, you're welcome.

There are seven road favorites this week. One of them isn't 8-5 Tennessee at 3-10 San Francisco. In Jimmy, Vegas Trusts. Or maybe the Titans are overrated. Even I accurately picked them to lose to Arizona last week.

Here are this week's games …

Broncos minus-2 1/2 at Colts: Colts by 3

Bears plus-5 1/2 at Lions: Lions by 7

Even with the longest injury report of the season by far, I feel the Vikings won't let last week's loss at Carolina bleed into this week's home game against the inferior Bengals. Cincinnati might bring a little extra juice defensively to try and impress Mike Zimmer, their former defensive coordinator, but the home crowd will favor Zimmer's defense. If the Vikings win the turnover battle and stop the run, they'll win this game. But I think it could be more of a struggle than many might think.

Dolphins plus-2 1/2 at Bills: Bills by 3

Ravens minus-7 1/2 at Browns: Ravens by 20

Texans plus-11 1/2 at Jaguars: Jaguars by 7

Eagles minus-7 1/2 at Giants: Eagles by 10

Jets plus-16 1/2 at Saints: Saints by 14

Chargers minus-1 1/2 at Chiefs: Chargers by 7

Rams plus-1/2; at Seahawks: Seahawks by 3

Patriots minus-1/2 at Steelers: Patriots by 7

Titans plus-1/2 at 49ers: Titans by 3

Falcons minus-6 1/2 at Buccaneers: Falcons by 7

UPSET SPECIAL

Packers plus-2 1/2 at Panthers: Packers by 7

Rodgers returns to try and keep the Packers in the playoff picture. He hasn't played in nine weeks. He should be rusty. He should lose on the road to a better team. But, c'mon, you know he's not going away that quietly. Especially with the Vikings coming to Lambeau next week.

Last week straight up; versus spread: 8-8; 6-10

Upset specials: 3-11