WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve will almost certainly reduce its key interest rate Wednesday, but the bigger question for financial markets and the economy is what signals Chair Jerome Powell may send regarding the central bank's next steps.
It would be the third cut in a row and bring the Fed's key rate to about 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years. For Americans struggling with high borrowing costs for homes, cars, and other large purchases, this year's rate cuts could reduce those costs over time — though it's not guaranteed. Mortgage rates in particular are also influenced by financial markets.
This week's meeting could presage a much cloudier path for the Fed in 2026. The government shutdown has delayed two months of jobs and inflation data, leaving the Fed with much less information on hiring and inflation than it is used to. Powell's term as chair ends in May and President Donald Trump will nominate a replacement, possibly as soon as this month, who will almost certainly push for lower borrowing costs. Yet the new chair could face resistance from other Fed officials.
In addition to a likely rate cut, the Fed could signal that the bar for another reduction when they next meet in late January will be higher than it has been this fall. A year ago, after implementing a third rate cut at its December meeting, the Fed indicated it would likely keep rates unchanged in the coming months. It didn't cut again until September.
''They would love to take a pass (in January), push it off to March, and just wait for a couple of more inflation reports to come in,'' Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo, said.
The Fed's 19-member rate-setting committee is deeply divided between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who'd prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target. Higher borrowing costs can slow spending and the economy and reduce price increases.
The government said last week in a delayed report that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in September, with both overall and core prices rising 2.8% from a year earlier.
The lack of economic data has contributed to the divisions. But by their January meeting, they'll have up to three months of backlogged reports to consider. If those figures show that hiring has remained weak, or that layoffs have spiked, the Fed could reduce rates again in January.
