Minnesotans could see more convicted sex offenders moving into their communities in coming months if a federal judge this week rules, as expected, that the state's controversial system of confining offenders indefinitely violates the U.S. Constitution.

U.S. District Court Judge Donovan Frank, presiding over a class-action suit against the Minnesota Sex Offender Program (MSOP), already has signaled his deep-seated displeasure with the system, calling it "clearly broken" and "draconian" in an earlier ruling. In a lengthy and contentious trial early this year, state officials admitted they may be detaining untold numbers of sex offenders who no longer meet the state's legal requirement for confinement.

The ruling, due Wednesday, is expected to set off a series of monumental changes to a program that has long been criticized as inhumane for indefinitely confining sex offenders after their prison terms have ended and without regular reviews.

It is unlikely that Frank will order the immediate release of any offenders, though legal experts say he could demand a prompt evaluation of the program to identify those who no longer pose a threat to society.

Perhaps anticipating a decision against MSOP, the state of Minnesota has been busy laying the groundwork for the transition of more offenders into the community. Since 2013, the Minnesota Department of Human Services (DHS), which oversees MSOP, has executed contracts with nine outside agencies to provide housing and treatment to sex offenders.

The program has also moved a record number of offenders, 67, to the final phase of treatment within MSOP.

In two decades, no one has been unconditionally discharged from the program, which confines about 700 rapists, pedophiles and other offenders at prisonlike treatment centers in Moose Lake and St. Peter.

Experts on sexual deviancy who have worked with offenders at MSOP estimate that as many as 25 percent to 35 percent of those confined at Moose Lake and St. Peter no longer meet the state's statutory criteria for confinement.

Those most likely to be considered for expedited release, say these experts, are some 60 detainees who have no adult sex-crime convictions but were committed to the program based solely on their behavior as juveniles; and another 70 offenders who are over age 65.

"There is a perception that offenders at MSOP represent the 'worst of the worst' — but that's simply a myth," said Jon Brandt, a clinical social worker and board member of the Minnesota chapter of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers. "These guys have done some horrible things in the past, but that doesn't mean they deserve to be locked up indefinitely."

Nevertheless, local opposition to any releases is likely to be fierce. Last year, Gov. Mark Dayton pulled the plug on plans to move about a dozen frail and low-functioning sex offenders to a facility in Cambridge, Minn., after hundreds of residents showed up at community meetings protesting the plan.

"There will be tiny uprisings across the state," predicted Dr. Budd Renier, a Cambridge resident who spoke out against the state's plan. "DHS will try to walk into these communities and do a song and dance about how these guys need to be treated fairly, but it's going to be difficult. … Who in their right mind wants a sex offender moving in next to their kid?"

And early this year, after a convicted rapist, Robert Jeno, was approved for supervised release to a group home in Le Center, a number of upset residents called for restrictions on where sex offenders can live. The Le Center City Council unanimously passed an ordinance prohibiting Level 3 offenders from living near schools and other places where children congregate.

"Of course there will be a backlash" to the ruling, said Warren Maas, executive director of Project Pathfinder, a St. Paul nonprofit that provides outpatient sex offender treatment. "There is a small but vocal minority who will argue that these are awful people who should never be released into the community."

No exit

Minnesota has long stood out among states for confining sex offenders indefinitely after their prison terms without conducting periodic risk evaluations. Most states, including Wisconsin, require that all offenders be assessed at least annually to determine if they still pose a serious enough risk to the public to justify confinement.

Only three offenders have been provisionally discharged in MSOP's history, and no offenders have been completely released without ongoing supervision. By comparison, Wisconsin has unconditionally discharged 118 clients, California has discharged 181, and Massachusetts has discharged 186, according to a 2014 survey.

Dan Gustafson, the lead attorney representing a class of offenders in the case before Judge Frank, said MSOP's admission during the trial that it was failing to perform regular evaluations of offenders was "the linchpin of our case."

"If you're going to take away someone's liberty, you better be damn sure you take it away for the proper reason and the proper amount of time," Gustafson said.

Few reoffend

At Moose Lake and St. Peter, offenders say the mood has turned anxiously hopeful in recent weeks as Frank nears a ruling.

"The anticipation is huge," said Leon Preston, 39, who has been confined at MSOP for 15 years. "There are guys here who think the judge is going to overturn this and everyone is going to get out."

Numerous studies have shown that sex offenders who undergo treatment pose very little risk of reoffending after being released. Since 2008, Florida has unconditionally discharged more than 40 offenders, with a reoffense rate of less than 5 percent. Only a tiny fraction of sex crimes are committed by repeat offenders, which has caused some treatment specialists to question the wisdom of spending money on high-security treatment centers.

In 2014, the cost of operating MSOP, including treating, housing and feeding offenders, totaled $90.3 million — or about $120,000 per offender.

The risk of reoffense is even lower for offenders who continue to receive treatment after they are released into the community. Such outpatient programs are already well-established in Minnesota. The state Department of Corrections contracts with outside agencies that provide treatment to more than 2,200 offenders covering 83 of Minnesota's 87 counties.

"The embarrassing irony," said Maas of Project Pathfinder, "is that we are professionally one of the best states to release [civilly committed] offenders, but we have almost never done so."

Chris Serres • 612-673-4308

Twitter: @chrisserres