Fantasy baseball projections hold some surprises, but little good news, for Twins fans

It's preview-magazine time for baseball fans, an annual exercise that's meant to whet the appetite for fast-approaching spring camps. But these days, it can have the opposite effect on Twins fans.

While I no longer play rotisserie baseball (and not because I was doing so much winning, I was getting tired of winning all the time), I particularly enjoy absorbing Baseball America's Fantasy Guide each January, because its statistical projections and particularly its player rankings give a good glimpse of how national evaluators view Twins players.

(A quick caveat: given that these evaluations are designed for fantasy-league players, they ignore defense except in how it relates to playing time; the position-by-position rankings are based on offensive categories common to those leagues.)

Last year, for instance, I thought BA's rankings seemed entirely too pessimistic about the Twins, given how optimistic the franchise was in the wake of an 83-win summer. Turns out, the magazine's numbers were prescient.

This year? Well, it's grim again, hardly a surprise considering the Twins' 59-win season was nine games worse than any other MLB team. But the rankings do provide some interesting projections.

For instance, Brian Dozier is the highest ranked Twin at any position, coming in fifth among second basemen behind Jose Altuve, Trea Turner, Robinson Cano and Daniel Murphy. That makes sense, given Dozier's record-shattering power surge last season.

But what Twins player was the second-most highly regarded, relative to his position, by BA's projections? The answer shocked me: It's Kennys Vargas, rated as the sixth-best designated hitter. The magazine notes that Vargas slugged 10 home runs in just 152 at-bats last season, and projects the switch-hitter to hit 21 homers in 2017 if he gets more playing time.

Speaking of that surplus at Vargas' position, the magazine made another assertion that shocked me in its rankings of first basemen. Joe Mauer, who kept his on-base percentage above .360 even as he endured one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, rated only 30th on BA's rankings, a dismal showing that correlates to what Baseball America expects will be more erosion in Mauer's game at the plate. "He's hanging on for dear life, when it comes to his major league career as an everyday player," the analysis reads.

But that wasn't even the biggest Twins-related surprise in BA's rankings of first baseman. This was: Byung Ho Park, the Korean slugger whose initial success in MLB was eventually overwhelmed by a midseason slump, is rated higher than Mauer, for fantasy purposes. Park is rated 28th in the majors, not exactly an endorsement, but it reflects his ability to provide a handful of home runs to rotisserie owners without the risk of extended (and stat-damaging) playing time if he doesn't produce them.

The rest of the rankings? Well, it's not pretty. Jason Castro, the Twins' new catcher, didn't even make the rankings of the top 32 at his position. That doesn't mean he won't have real value to the Twins, who signed him for his defensive ability, but it means he's largely worthless (or worse) to offense-minded fantasy owners.

Miguel Sano is rated 12th at third base, with the note that investors must accept a hit in batting average and steals in order to purchase Sano's "30-homer potential." Jorge Polanco's ranking is 21 at shortstop, and BA's projections suggest the second-year player will reach double digits in both home runs and stolen bases.

Byron Buxton is 51st, Max Kepler is 55th and Eddie Rosario is 79th among MLB outfielders, and Robbie Grossman comes in 97th. Buxton, the magazine believes, "could be on the verge of a breakout in 2017," and it notes that he is "best when he's not trying to force anything at the plate" — an opinion the Twins' center fielder agrees with, as I wrote in today's paper.

As for pitching, well, you don't want to know, Twins fans. The message, understandably so after last year's disaster, is essentially to stay away from Minnesota when drafting. Only one Twins starter made BA's top 100 recommendations, and that's Jose Berrios at 96th. Still, the projections say Berrios will cut his ERA all the way down to 3.24 after his 8.02 debut-season mark, an improvement that the Twins would certainly endorse.

Ervin Santana is rated 106th among starters, which may help explain why his trade value probably isn't as high as the Twins would like. Hector Santiago rates No. 114, and no other Twin registers on the top 150. Of note: No. 149 on BA's list is Alex Meyer and No. 150 is Ricky Nolasco, the pitchers Minnesota dealt for Santiago last August.

Among relievers, in a game where saves are a prized commodity, the projections aren't much better for Twins fans. Glen Perkins, Michael Tonkin and Brandon Kintzler are listed as No. 31A-C, partly reflective of Perkins' uncertain status following shoulder surgery, but also of the analysts' doubts about Kintzler, who took over the closer role at midseason. Kintzler doesn't strike out enough hitters, the comments note, to be trustworthy as a season-long closer, but "Tonkin profiles as a more prototypical closer after striking out 80 batters in 71.2 innings."