Flight experts say prepare for ‘unholy mess’ at airports, including MSP, as FAA reduces air traffic

The Federal Aviation Administration announced Wednesday it would reduce 10% of air traffic from 40 airports starting Friday because of the government shutdown, and big disruptions are expected as a result.

It is not yet known if the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport will be on the list, which officials said would be released Thursday. The FAA lists MSP as one of its “Core 30″ airports.

In interviews with the Minnesota Star Tribune, two travel industry analysts said MSP is likely to be included, although one of them, Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst at San Francisco-based Atmosphere Research Group, said it’s possible MSP could be exempted if it has maintained adequate staffing for air traffic controllers.

Messages left with MSP officials were not returned Wednesday.

Either way, both Harteveldt and Kyle Potter, the executive editor of Twin Cities-based flight alert service Thrifty Traveler, said placing the restrictions with less than 48 hours’ notice is bound to cause disruptions nationwide and touch the Twin Cities in some way.

“I don’t want to scare people, but at the same time, it’s hard not to see this as having a really debilitating effect on all air travel,” Potter said.

Harteveldt estimated a 10% reduction in air traffic would mean 3,000 or more canceled flights a day, and the effects would only snowball from there.

Even if MSP is not on the list, “flights to Minneapolis are going to be affected because the damage of these decisions is going to spread beyond the 40 markets that ultimately get targeted,” Potter said.

Harteveldt said that because the FAA did not give airlines advance notice about the restrictions, he expects their reactions to be “fluid” through the weekend, with new announcements on disruptions made daily.

“I’m not going to lie; it’s going to be an unholy mess for the next few days if these cuts go through,” Harteveldt said.

The FAA directs more than 44,000 flights a day. The agency said the restrictions would remain in place as long as necessary.

Harteveldt and Potter said there is no direct precedent for the circumstances of the restrictions announced Wednesday. Harteveldt said the closest comparison would be in 1981, when President Ronald Reagan fired 11,000 air traffic controllers who were on strike and restricted air traffic in the aftermath.

The majority have been working six days a week and putting in overtime. Some have started calling out of work, creating staffing shortages and leading to flight delays at some airports.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said on Wednesday there has been growing fatigue among air traffic controllers.

Harteveldt said those circumstances create legitimate safety concerns, but a lack of advance notice for airlines will leave them scrambling.

“This implies to me that they’re taking a hacksaw when a scalpel is more effective,” he said.

For those planning to travel in the coming days, Potter advised them to pay close attention to their email and headlines about the airlines’ next steps. He said travelers should already think about backup plans — traveling by car or train instead — and to know their rights.

“You can’t let the airlines stick you with a credit or a voucher that might expire in a year or less,” he said.