Fire Weather Concerns Friday
Due to expected gusty winds and low humidity values, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of central and northern Minnesota for Friday afternoon and evening. With those conditions - and fairly dry weather recently - any fires that develop could quickly spread.
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Friday Weather Outlook
We've made it to Friday, and it's going to be the last chance at a 90F degree high for at least a little bit of time. It looks like we'll climb up to around 90F out ahead of some cooler air moving in for the weekend with mainly sunny skies.
You can see the cooler air starting to work in across northern Minnesota where highs will be in the 60s and 70s compared to the 80s and 90s across the southern half of the state. A cold front approaching northern Minnesota could bring in a few afternoon and evening rain across the northern third of the state. Otherwise, mainly sunny skies are expected.
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Weekend Outlook: Dry Saturday, Storms For Father's Day
Don't forget - it's Father's Day weekend! Saturday will be the nicer day of the weekend for outdoor activities like grilling as highs reach the low to mid-80s in the Twin Cities with mainly sunny skies. As we head toward Sunday, a system will be working through the upper Midwest with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs may only be in the 70s on Sunday.
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Closer Look At Father's Day
As that area of low pressure moves into the region for the second half of the weekend, rain will spread west to east across the state early on Sunday, with scattered showers and storms continuing statewide throughout the day. Highs will range from the 60s in northern Minnesota to the low 80s in southern portions of the state.
As we look at Father's Day climatology for the Twin Cities, the warmest we've ever been (going back to 1910) was 98F in 1988. The wettest was back in 1935 when 2.16" of rain occurred. The good news - no snow has ever occurred!
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Cooling Into Next Week
Temperatures will be on the decrease as we head through the weekend (as noted above) and into early next week. Right now the coolest day looks to be Monday as highs could struggle to make it into the low 70s behind the system that impacts the region Sunday. We'll see strong northwest winds on Monday as well so it'll feel more like fall than summer! Temperatures will rebound toward the middle of the week, with 80s expected by next Wednesday. Highs later this weekend into early next week will be the first time we've observed below average highs so far in June.
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We Need Some Rain!
It's been a very dry June so far across most of the state, with many climate locations running between 1-3" below average halfway through the month. Through the 16th it's been the 11th driest start to the month in the Twin Cities with only 0.40" of rain falling so far.
With very little rain recently and the hot weather in place, drought has continued to expand across the state. As of the latest Drought Monitor outlook issued Thursday morning, 55.7% of the state is now under Moderate Drought conditions (up from 46.2% last week), and 5.07% of the state is under Severe Drought (up from 1.81% last week).
The dry weather has not helped soil moisture across the state. As of the latest Minnesota crop update, issued this past Monday, 64% of topsoil is either short or very short of moisture. Head south into Iowa, and 70% of topsoil is at those moisture levels. Any rain we can get to help the drought situation (and the crops) would be much needed!
Looking at corn in either good or excellent condition, that is down 11% week to week in the state to 58%.
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Drought Conditions Expand - One More Hot Day Friday
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas
I try to keep a few plants on my deck each year. Unfortunately, the heat this month has already contributed to take out one of my tomato plants. My strawberry plants are soaking up all the water I can give them, though, and have really blossomed in the hot weather!
We could still use a nice dose of rainfall. The latest Drought Monitor, released Thursday, now has 55.7% of the state in moderate drought - up from 46.2% last week. 5.07% of the state is in severe drought, covering parts of southern and northwestern Minnesota. The latest Minnesota crop update issued Monday also shows the dry conditions and the impacts they, along with the heat, are having. In that report, topsoil moisture supplies were rated 64% short or very short and only 58% of corn was in good or excellent condition.
Temperatures will take one more shot at 90F today under sunny skies before cooler weather moves in for Father's Day weekend. Our next chance of rain moves in Sunday with the potential of widespread showers and storms.
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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast
FRIDAY: Sunny and hot. Breezy. Wake up 67. High 89. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Mainly sunny. Slightly cooler. Wake up 61. High 82. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Showers & t-storms for Father's Day. Wake up 62. High 79. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Cool, cloudy, and windy. PM showers. Wake up 57. High 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Wake up 50. High 72. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Warmer. A few clouds. Wake up 55. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Wake up 60. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 18th
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes and 38 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~0 minutes and 12 seconds
*When Do We Have The Most Daylight? June 20th-21st (15 hours, 36 minutes, and 50 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 5:30 AM?: June 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Latest Sunset Of The Year?: June 19th-July 2nd (9:03 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
June 18th
1939: A deadly tornado hits Anoka. 9 fatalities and over 200 injuries are reported.
1850: Territorial Governor Ramsey reports that about halfway between Ft. Ripley and Ft. Snelling on the Mississippi a severe hail storm occurred in the evening. One or two hailstones picked up were as large as hen's eggs and he thought he saw one about the size of a 'musket ball.'
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National Weather Forecast
On Friday, we'll watch the potential for showers and storms across the Northern Gulf Coast as a tropical system approaches the region. Elsewhere, we'll see some afternoon storms over the Rockies and the Front Range, with more rain from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
The heaviest rain over the next few days will fall along the northern Gulf Coast due to our tropical system, where through the weekend overall 4-10" of rain could fall. That could lead to flooding.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Three in the Gulf of Mexico, which is likely to become Tropical Storm Claudette Friday. It is expected to make landfall early Saturday along the Louisiana Gulf Coast.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
The main story with this tropical system will be the heavy rain threat. Through the weekend, some portions of the northern Gulf Coast could see 4-10"+ of rain. This heavy rain will lead to the potential of flash flooding.
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Global Power Grids Pushed to Breaking Point
More from Bloomberg: "Texas and California are at risk of blackouts as a sprawling heat wave smothers the western U.S. Cities across China's industrial heartland are rationing electricity. European power prices are far higher than usual for this time of year. Droughts are drying up reservoirs from Brazil to Taiwan. Welcome to the future of rising temperatures and the escalating fight just to keep lights on. Mix extreme heat and longer droughts, surging post-pandemic power demand, rising fossil fuel prices and a bumpy transition into renewables, and the result is a severe global power crunch. For millions of households and businesses around the world it could be a long, hot summer of higher bills, periodic rationing and, in the worst case, blackouts. Higher energy costs will also add to the inflationary pressures coursing through the global economy."
'Mega-heat wave' is peaking in the West, breaking records and intensifying drought, fires
More from the Washington Post: "One of the most extreme heat waves ever observed in the western United States this early in the season is near its climax. The punishing blast of heat, which began Sunday, has set hundreds of records while simultaneously worsening a historically severe drought, intensifying fires and degrading air quality. About 40 million Americans have endured triple-digit heat and more than 50 million have been under excessive-heat warnings this week."
Why the Supergiant Star Betelgeuse Went Mysteriously Dim Last Year
More from Scientific American: "Last year's dramatic dimming of the star Betelgeuse — familiar to many as the 'right shoulder' of the constellation Orion — was caused by a cloud of dust spewed out by the star itself. Astrophysicists reached this conclusion, published on 16 June in Nature, using high-resolution imaging of Betelgeuse before and after the dimming, combined with computer simulations. Normally, Betelgeuse is one of the ten brightest stars in the night sky. For decades, researchers have known that it undergoes cycles of dimming roughly every 425 days, during which it temporarily loses about one-quarter of its peak brightness. But in February 2020, astronomers noticed that the star's brightness had dropped by an unprecedented two-thirds — enough to be noticeable with the naked eye."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
